Mapping the Promise: Critical Pathways

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Mapping the PromiseCritical Pathways

• Town Hall Meeting on Education Michigans
  Economic Future
• Randall W. Eberts
• January 17, 2007

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Kalamazoo Promise Basic principles

• First and foremost--An economic development
  initiative centered on student scholarship
• Place-based recipients must reside in the
  district and attend/graduate from Kalamazoo
  Public Schools (minimum of four years)
• Universal every student who graduates meets
  residency/attendance requirements is eligible
• Generous covers 65 to 100 of tuition and fees
  for up to 4 years of college indefinite duration
  (guaranteed at any point for at least the next 13
  years)
• Flexible may be used at any of 44 public
  colleges or universities in Michigan, including
  vocational education programs may be used
  anytime within 10 years of graduation.

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Benefits to Students

• Employment prospects are greater for those with
  BA degrees
• BA degree 3.6 unemployment rate (2003)
• HS degree 5.2
• LT HS 8.5
• Earnings are higher
• 73 higher with BA degree than HS degree
• The gap has grown by 70 since 1980

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Benefits to the Region

• A 1 point increase of college graduates in a
  regions workforce increases wages by 1.3
  (Moretti, 2004)
• Affects the wages of high school dropouts (1.9)
  more than the wages of other college graduates
  (0.4)
• A 1 point increase in share of college graduates
  increases the number of patents by 0.9 (Glaeser,
  2003)
• Reflects the ability of skilled workers to
  produce and use technology
• Skills may be a crucial part of the reinvention
  process of cities and regions (Glaeser, 2003)
• Particularly important for regions with declining
  industries
• An increase in percentage with BAs of one
  standard deviation (about 23 ppt) increases per
  capita income by 1.4 percent

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Per Capita Income Growth and College Degree
Austin
Boulder
Ann Arbor
Kalamazoo
Flint
Youngstown
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First level Effects

• Increase the percentage of people with college
  degrees
• Scholarship reduces the financial barriers to a
  college education
• Creates an environment attractive to people and
  firms that value education

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Critical Steps

• Reduce dropout rates
• Increase student retention
• Increase graduation rates

50 of 9th graders in KPS graduate
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Critical Steps

• Increase college applications
• Increase college enrollment
• Increase college retention

Nationally, 31 entering college complete an
AA and 55 a BA

• KPS Class of 2006
• 68 of graduates entered college
• 63 under the Promise

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Critical Steps

• Attract and retain
• college graduates

Nationally, 11 of 20-24 year olds leave the
county in which they live
Through migration the Kalamazoo area lost 8 of
its 1995 17-25 year olds who eventually held a
BA or higher in 2000
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How can the Promise affect these critical steps?
Suggest possible impacts by looking at the
recent experience of KPS before and after the
Promise and from evaluations of
state-level scholarship programs, such as the
Hope Scholarship in Georgia
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Possible Impact of the Promise
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Possible Impact of the Promise
National survey results
KPS experience
KPS experience
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Possible Impact of the Promise
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Possible Impact of the Promise
KPS experience
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Possible Impact of the Promise
Georgia Hope evaluation
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Possible Impact of the Promise
Georgia Hope evaluation
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Possible Impact of the Promise
Georgia Hope evaluation
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Possible Impact of the Promise
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Possible Impact of the Promise
22.2 to 24.4
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Raises our Ranking

• Increasing the percentage of BAs for ages 25-34
  from 22.2 to 24.4 raises our ranking from 122nd
  out of 359 metro areas in 2000 to 84th
• Eliminating the 8 BA drain from the area would
  further increase our ranking from 84th to 61st

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Secondary Effects

• Increased in-migration of people
• with higher education and the
• desire to live in a community that
• places a high priority on education
• Increase in housing values
• Greater resources in area
• Focus on development of
• the urban core
• Benefits the entire region

Increase in discretionary dollars in the
region Greater demand for local higher
education institutions
Improvement in local educational institutions
from increased resources and better alignment
with goals and objectives
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Community Engagement!!
Fulfilling the Promise will not happen on its
own

• Need support for students to
• Understand the benefits of a
• college education
• Prepare for college while in
• K-12
• Meet the rigors of college
• education

Need employers to see the benefit of a
well-educated labor force and create high-end
jobs in the local area
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Scorecard

• Urban Core
• 1. Downtown Development
• residential/commercial
• 2. Vacancy rates
• 3. Tax revenues
• Community
• 1. House Sales
• 2. Vacancy rates
• 3. New housing starts
• 4. Time on listings
• 5. Origin of new residents
• 6. Tax base effects
• 7. Population change
• Region
• 1. Population change
• 2. Employment change (job creation)

• Students
• A. Progress throughout K-16
• 1. Grades
• 2. Test performance (MEAP, etc.)
• 3. Expected grade progression
• 4. Dropout rate
• 5. Application to college rate
• 6. Acceptance to college rate
• 7. Graduation rate
• 8. College entrance rate
• 9. College retention
• 10. Major and coursework
• 11. Graduation Rate
• 12. Location of first job (earnings,
  etc.)
• B. Community/school support
• 1. Parental attitude/support
• 2. Community organizational support
• School

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Please contact me with comments, questions, or
suggestions Randall W. Eberts269-343-5541Ebe
rts_at_upjohninstitute.org