Technology

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Technology Sustainability

• Lecture 17

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Overview

• The role of technology in achieving
  sustainability
• Conflicts between technology and sustainability
• Technology paths the S-shaped curve
• Examples of technology diffusion

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Questions about Technology

• Can technology, which has extended human reach,
  also liberate the environment from human impact?
• Can technology decouple our goods and services
  from demands on planetary resources?
• Can technology do the following to the economy?
• deenergize
• dematerialize
• decarbonize
• Are the net impacts of technology positive or
  negative?

Note Technology is applied science or
engineering.
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When was the Golden Age?

• 1963 US and USSR signed the Limited Test Ban
  Treaty, 400 nuclear explosions in atmosphere
• 1945 much of European forests cut for fuel
• 1920 coal provided 3/4 of world energy, choking
  smog around London and Pittsburgh
• 1870 booming Industrial Revolution, no filters
• 1839 Drake drew first petroleum from
  underground pool in Pennsylvania, tens of
  thousands of sperm whales slaughtered for 3
  million gallons of sperm oil
• 1840s land-hungry farmers decimating forests and
  native grasses in US and Argentina
• 1830s cholera epidemics decimated populations
  that dumped wastes in nearby streams

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• 1700 100,000 mills interrupted the flow of every
  stream in France
• 1600s dense forests in Brazil and Caribbean
  converted to sugar cane production
• 1492 Columbus stimulates reverse reciprocal
  transatlantic invasions of flora and fauna
• 10th century people in cold climates center
  lives around fireplaces with louvered roofs to
  carry out smoke (and heat!)
• 55 B.C. Julius Caesar invades Britain and
  finds less forest than is there today
• Homer to Alexander forest of Eastern
  Mediterranean cleared
• Prehistory hunters decimate wild creatures, 13
  tons of firewood needed for plaster for walls and
  floors of a house

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Todays Challenges

• Genetic Engineering flora, fauna, and humans
• Nanotechnology Grey goo?
• Microprocessors exotic waste, ubiquitous
• Hydrogen Economy exotic catalysts
• Chemistry and Chemicals toxicity, biomimickers
• Nuclear Science radionuclides and waste

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Technologies for Sustainability

• Decarbonization
• Dematerialization
• De-enegization
• Detoxification
• Clean, renewable energy
• Closed materials cycles
• Water efficiency

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Decarbonization and Deenergization

• Displacement of carbon may be the greatest single
  environmental challenge
• Carbon fuels source of most energy. But it is
  the hydrogen that creates the energy
• Carbon/Hydrogen ratio
• Wood 10 C/ H Coal 1 or 2 C /H Oil 2 C/H
  Methane CH4
• Shift taking place, manufacturing to services
  -clean fuels
• American economy 3 Kg/ (1800) 0.3 Kg/ (1990)
• Chinese and Indian America and Europe in the
  1800s
• Current rate of reduction 0.3/year
• Ultimate fuel hydrogen from water
• Efficiency is also a key entire production
  chain efficiency is 5

? Energy Input/Work Output
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Land Use

• Agriculture is greatest transformer of the
  environment
• Consumes forests, drains wetlands, removes
  habitats
• US Cities occupy 5 of land, crops 20, pasture
  25
• France Crops 35 China10
• Shift to vegetarian diet can halve land
  requirement
• Agricultural yields now tied to large water use,
  fertilizers, pesticides, genetic engineering,
  monoculture crops

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Water

• Water is probably our most valuable and most
  wasted resource
• US per capita water withdrawals quadrupled
  1900-1970
• Technology impact total US water withdrawals
  peaked in 1980. Industrial water use dropped by
  1/3 in past decade.
• US industrial water withdrawals 14 gallons/ GDP
  (1940) to 3 gallons/ GDP (1990)
• Why? Law (Clean Water Act of 1972), better
  management, more water efficient processes

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Dematerialization

• Intensity of materials use has plummeted in the
  20th century
• Most products (cars, computers, beverage cans)
  are smaller and lighter
• New technologies CD-ROM, DVD, fiber optics
• But waste in US is rising at 1.6/year
• Materials use grows rapidly persons/house in US
  5 (1890) 2.6 (today)
• Ecological rucksack mass materials movements

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Ecological Rucksack Diagram
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Technology Paths

• The Path Invention, Innovation, Diffusion
• Innovation discovering the science and
  principles
• Innovation discovering how the applications
• Diffusion spreading the technology
• Technology is represented by things people make
• artifacts (anthropology) hardware (engineers)
• Manufacturing requires
• large system of hardware (machinery, plants)
• factor inputs (raw materials, energy, labor)
• software (knowledge and skills) including how
  to use
• Time between invention and innovation 15 to 40
  years

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Diffusion

• Technology diffusion generally follows a
  nonlinear S-shaped time path
• slow growth at beginning
• accelerating growth
• decelerating growth
• saturation
• symmetrical decline
• Diffusion clock how fast
• opposition the Luddites, social feedback
• positive feedback loops standard railroad gauge,
  DOS
• Diffusion translates technology changes into
  social practice 1 abbey could not change Europe,
  740 could!

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Initial Diffusion of Cistercian Monasteries in
Europe
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Growth of the Canal Network in the U.S.
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Growth of U.S. Infrastructure as Percent of
Maximum Network Size
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Diffusion of Car Emission Controls and Catalytic
Converters in the U.S.
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Diffusion of Steel Making Technologies in U.S. as
of Market Share
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Primary Energy Intensity Per Unit of Added Value
(kgoe/US 1990)
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Global Decarbonization Carbon and Energy Sparing
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Carbon Intensities of Final Energy (tC/toe)
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Global Energy Substitution
SOLFUS New energy technologies (solar ? fusion?)
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Some new energy technologies
Hypercar Hypercar, Inc.
Nexa Power Module Ballard, Inc.
Solid Oxide fuel cell Westinghouse Siemens
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Technology Help or Hindrance?

• Industry is deenenergizing and dematerializing,
  thanks to technology, on a value or unit output.
• At the same time, industry is introducing
  thousands of chemicals and new materials without
  regard to their impacts or recycling potential.
• Internationally agreed policy is needed to cope
  with the introduction of harmful, non-sustainable
  materials and processes.

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Concluding Thoughts

• Technology is a two-edged sword many benefits,
  many problems
• The questions are
• How do we harness technology to take
  environmental impacts into account?
• How do we diffuse clean, resource efficient
  technologies to benefit everyone?
• How do we make the necessary technological leaps
  to benefit sustainable development, especially
  for developing world?