Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I)

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Lecture 6 Micro Origin of 911 (I) The
Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda?

• 17th February 2003 (Monday)

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Session Arrangement

• T1 1000-1100am Room 4472 s
• T2A 1100-1150am Room 1403 k
• T2B 1100-1150am Room 4472 s
• T3A 1200-1250pm Room 4472 k
• T3B 1200-1250pm Room 3301A s
• PLEASE FINALIZE TODAY!

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Macro Vs Micro Origins

• George W Bush
• Why do they hate us so much?
• Macro Origins
• Long-term Historical Development
• Islamic Fundamentalism, Clash of Civilization,
  the American Pride
• Micro Origins
• Why was 911 arranged that way?
• Why did Osama Bin Laden arrange the attack
  despite his expectation of American revenge?
• Laden Conspiracy Bush Conspiracy No
  Conspiracies

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Structure of Lecture 6

• Does the Methodology of 911 Matter?
• 2 Possible Plans of Osama Bin Laden
• Minimalist Plan Omar Doctrine
• Maximalist Plan The Grand Strategy
• Conclusion The Taoist Strategy

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PART IDoes the Methodology of 911 Matter?
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Alternatives of 911

• Assassination of President?
• Overseas Bombing?
• Ally with Anti-American Powers?
• Self-strengthening Movement?
• Cultural/ Psychological Attack?

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Does Methodology Matter?

• Doesnt matter The Invisible Hands Theory
• Does matters The Marxist History
• Capitalism ? Imperialism ? Socialism
• Class Consciousness against Exploiters
• Some Yes, Some No
• Short-term Vs Long-term History

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We Cant Truly Understand the Planners Goals of
the Decision-makers

• Type 1 Goals on Paper
• Type 2 Goals by Research
• Type 3 Conspiracy Theories
• Goals not-researchable
• The American Conspiracy Theory
• The Al-Qaeda Conspiracy Theory
• Goals of Al-Qaeda Which Level?

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PART IIGoals of Osama Bin LadenGoals by
Research or by Conspiracy?
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Assigned Readings

• Main Text Walter Laqueur Left, Right, and
  Beyond the Changing Face of Terror (HR
  P.71-82)
• Supplementary Text Tariq Ali The Clash of
  Fundamentalisms. Chapter 20 The September
  Surprise. (P.290-302).

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The Minimal Argument

• Laden has more capabilities
• Unconventional Weapons
• Jihad
• The Trend of Escalation
• HK Military Expert more to come
• Aim To drive America out of the Middle East

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The Maximal Argument

• Laden has no more capabilities
• The Vacuum of US Intelligence
• Eradication of Al-Qaeda Headquarters
• Lacking in Mass Destruction Weapons
• Pentagon (e.g. Wesley Clark)
• No more of the same scale
• Aim to change the world

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PART III From Minimalism The Omar Doctrine
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Precedence Monroe Doctrine (1825)

• Latin America (Central South America)
• Americas Sphere of Interest
• End of Napoleonic War (1815)
• ? End of Spanish Colonial Empire (1820s)
• President James Monroe
• America is Americas America (1825)

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The Omar Doctrine

• If American wants to root out terrorism and
  intimidation, then it should withdraw its force
  from the Gulf and demonstrate neutrality over the
  issue of Palestine.
• -- Omar, Head of Taliban (Sept 24 2001)

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Message from the Omar Doctrine

• Middle East is Islams Middle East
• Osama Bin Ladens Video Speeches
• Omar instead of Laden
• Victim Vs Aggressor

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PART IV From Maximalism Grand Strategy of Al
Qaeda
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Grand Strategy

• Professor Paul Kennedy
• Grand Strategy in Cold War
• War of Unlimited Boundaries by Chinese
• Provocative Strategy
• The strategy to unite the whole world against the
  United States
• To provoke the Americans at 911
• The Americans will fight back in an insane manner
  and angered the whole world

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OBL Step 1 Hysteria of America

• Human Loss/ Civilian Loss
• Vs Military Loss/ Assassination
• Hysteria of Mass Opinion
• Getting out from the Vietnam War Shadow
• Hysteria of Government
• Extremist Foreign Policies
• Patriotism, Marginalization of Leftists
• New McCarthyism against the Muslims

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OBL Step 2 Alienation of Arabic Allies

• Sentiments of Muslims ? Unification
• Crisis of Pro-Western Arabic Governments
• Coups detat?
• Saudi Arabia the money
• Crown Prince Abdullahs Dilemma
• Pakistan the nuclear arsenal
• General Pervez Musharraf
• Military Dictatorship by American Endorsement
  Popular Election

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OBL Step 3Alienation of Western Allies

• Genuine Anti-war Movements
• Convince American Allies of the Next Step of
  America towards its allies as well
• Neutralization of the Western Bloc
• France UN Veto power The Uncompromising
  History
• Germany Real Leader of Europe
• Turkey Internal Security Concern

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OBL Step 4 Revolution of World Order

• Anti-Americanism as a New Culture
• Message from the Anti-war Demonstration
• Message from the Internet
• Experience of Cultural Revolution in China
• From Great Disorder to the Great Order
• Assumptions under Chaos Theory
• 2001-2003 Successful?

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PART V Conclusion Lessons from Chinese
Philosophy
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Osama Bin Laden Benefit of the Doubt

• A Calculative Planner
• the planner who can see the outcome --
• Computer Simulation/ RISK
• McArthur Ill be Back!
• A Messianic Planner
• the planner who cant see the outcome --
• Statements of Wisdom
• Jesus fall of Roman Empire

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Taoism in International Relations

• Philosophy of Lao Zis Tao Te Jing
• The Way can be told is not the Way. (Cp.1)
• The Weak conceal its ability to overcome the
  Strong. (Cp.36)
• Osama Bin Laden Invite the American Invasion
  under Taoism?

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Analogy of the Business World

• Stock Market
• Unfriendly bid by small potatoes ?
• Hysterias fight back by Tycoons ?
• Chain Effects sympathy/ allies/ overreach of
  tycoons favorable to small potatoes
• Revolution of Stock Market

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Ladens Grand Strategy

• An Unfinished Story
• Patience!

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The End
Thank you for attending