Student Success, Retention, and Graduation

1
Student Success, Retention, and Graduation

• Everyones Business Supporting Student Success /
  Improving Retention and Graduation Rates June
  8 9, 2005

2
National and Local Context for Workshop

• Role of Student Success, Retention, and
  Graduation in National Dialogue
• Campuses should be more accountable
• Campuses should communicate more information
  about their performance
• Belief that tuition continues to increase without
  improvement in quality
• Belief that remedy is national accountability
  standards for higher education
• Concern among BOG Members about Graduation Rates
• Want more data about campus performance
• Seek ways to motivate and measure improvements
• Improved retention and graduation rates should
  complement increased access
• Increasing number of graduates contributes to
  improving and transforming NC economy

3
National Retention and Graduation Data

• Source Consortium for Student Retention Data
  Exchange (CSRDE), University of Oklahoma
• Education Trust website (based on IPEDS)
  www.collegeresults.org
• Finding Retention rates have improved
• 1994 77.2
• 2000 79.9
• ACT Survey shows more recent overall decline,
  with only publics improving
• Four-year graduation rates have declined
• 1966 50
• 1982 33
• 2002 29

4
National Retention and Graduation Data

• Retention rates vary by institutional selectivity
  (and Carnegie classification)

Source Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY,
August 2003, p. 4
5
UNC Retention Data One-Year Retention Rates by
Institution Fall 1997 Fall 2003 Cohorts
Six-year average, 1996-2002, CSRDE, University of
Oklahoma
The University of North Carolina Office of the
President
4
UNC-GA ProgAssessg/Persist.AG011S.U/2-19-04
6
One-Year Freshman-to-Sophomore Year Retention
(institutions improved from 2002 to 2003
highlighted)
Six-year average, 1996-2002, CSRDE, University of
Oklahoma
UNC-GA ProgAssessg/Persist.AG011S.U/2-28-05
7
Four-Year Full-Time and Traditional Graduation
Rates Fall 1997 Fall 2000 Cohorts
Three-year average, 2000-03, CSRDE, University of
Oklahoma
UNC-GA ProgAssess/Persist.AG011W.U/3-4-05
8
UNC Graduation Data Number and Percent of
Four-Year Full-Time Graduates, 1996-2000
2000-2004
The University of North Carolina Office of the
President
7
UNC-GA ProgAssess/Persist.AG011W.U/3-15-04
9
Six-Year Graduation Rates by InstitutionFall
1995 Fall 1998 Cohorts
2002-03 graduation rates, CSRDE, University of
Oklahoma
UNC-GA ProgAssess/Persist.AG011W.U/3-4-05
10
Ten-Year Enrollment Plan2002-2012 (Fall
Headcount Enrollment)
2002 Actual and Targets for 2007 and 2012
The University of North Carolina Office of the
President
9
UNC-OP Academic Planning/ARM-wmd/01-08-04
11
Comparison of Fall 2002 and Fall 2003 Headcount
Enrollment
12
Enrollment in Focused-Growth Institutions
The University of North Carolina Office of the
President
11
UNC-OP Academic Planning/ARM-wmd/01-08-04
13
UNC College-Going Rate for New North Carolina
High School Graduates 1994-2004
Annual
Preliminary Fall
14
First-Year Community College Transfer Retention
by AA Graduate Status
15
Table 5 North Carolina Community College
Transfers Graduation Rates in the University
of North Carolina
16
Table 6. Graduation Rates of Native Juniors (3rd
Year) in the University of North Carolina
17
Table 7. Graduation Rates of Native Juniors
Achieving Junior Status in 3rd, 4th, or 5th Year
18
Table 8. Degrees Awarded 2001-02 through 2003-04
by Field
  2001-2002 2001-2002 2001-2002 2001-2002 2002-2003 2002-2003 2002-2003 2002-2003 2003-04 2003-04 2003-04 2003-04
  B M D TOTAL B M D TOTAL B M D TOTAL
Agriculture and Nat. Resources 601 126 48 775 571 137 41 749 559 132 43 734
Architecture Environ. Des. 163 62 4 229 133 87 4 224 162 75 6 243
Area Studies 134 23 0 157 165 13 0 178 214 22 0 236
Biological Sciences 1,322 180 91 1,593 1,368 205 151 1,724 1,460 199 155 1,814
Business and Management 4,467 1,280 13 5,760 4,789 1,325 8 6,122 4,825 1,457 6 6,288
Communications 1,631 37 14 1,682 1,761 50 21 1,832 1,790 42 19 1,851
Computer Information Sci. 662 301 12 975 721 357 15 1,093 772 489 19 1,280
Education 2,015 1,508 144 3,667 2,062 1,811 138 4,011 2,254 2,066 172 4,492
Engineering 1,772 450 99 2,321 1,954 655 117 2,726 2,072 659 129 2,860
Fine and Applied Arts 1,124 150 12 1,286 1,263 142 14 1,419 1,346 192 16 1,554
Foreign Languages 243 40 19 302 251 37 23 311 251 49 29 329
Health Professions 1,609 959 98 2,666 1,615 854 43 2,512 1,692 946 45 2,683
Home Economics 404 85 7 496 412 49 4 465 419 49 2 470
Letters 1,199 220 37 1,456 1,285 206 32 1,523 1,292 258 29 1,579
Library Science 0 216 1 217 0 232 6 238 0 276 5 281
Mathematics 241 101 49 391 267 94 33 394 275 106 37 418
Physical Sciences 523 115 74 712 466 119 70 655 532 152 82 766
Psychology 1,458 143 51 1,652 1,564 149 32 1,745 1,536 131 48 1,715
Public Affairs and Services 1,767 487 5 2,259 1,838 555 21 2,414 1,798 605 21 2,424
Social Sciences 2,446 256 66 2,768 2,551 245 64 2,860 2,983 257 76 3,316
Interdisciplinary Studies 191 70 0 261 227 110 13 350 209 149 11 369
TOTAL 23,972 6,809 844 31,625 25,263 7,432 850 33,545 26,441 8,311 950 35,702
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Table 9. UNC First Professional Degrees Awarded
2001-02 through 2003-04 by Field
Year/School Dentistry Medicine Pharmacy Vet. Med. Law
2001-02          
ECU   69      
NCCU         100
UNC CH 71 151 146   221
NCSU       75  
2002-03          
ECU   66      
NCCU         87
UNC CH 80 134 142   316  
NCSU       73
2003-04          
ECU   80      
NCCU         93
UNC CH 70 154 135   228
NCSU       76  
20
Educational Attainment in North CarolinaAges 25
and Older by Race and Ethnicity 2004
Source U.S. Census Bureau
21
Participation in UNC Institutions College-Going
Rates of NC High School Graduates in UNC
Institutions by Race and Ethnic Group Fall 2004
Source UNC Office of the President
22
Economic Benefits of Higher Education Average
Annual Earnings of Workers with Earnings 18
Years and Over by Educational Attainment 2001
Source Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY,
November 2003, p. 11
23
Growth in UNC Distance Learning Course Sections
Fall 1999 Fall 2004
24
Growth in Unduplicated Headcount Enrollment in
UNC Distance Learning Programs FY 1999 FY 2004
Note UNC reports unduplicated headcount
enrollment (that is, a student taking more than
one course is only counted once) for distance
learning NCCCS reports duplicated headcount
enrollment (that is, a student who takes more
than one course is counted for each course taken)
for distance learning (see p. 89).
25
Growth in Student Credit Hours in UNC Distance
Learning Programs, FY 1999 FY 2004
26
What Does the Future Hold?Projections of High
School Graduates by State 2002-2018
Source Western Interstate Commission on Higher
Education (WICHE)
27
What Does the Future Hold?North Carolina Public
and Nonpublic HS Graduates 1990-91 through
2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18
(projected)
Source Western Interstate Commission on Higher
Education (WICHE)
28
What Does the Future Hold?North Carolina
American Indian/Alaskan Native Public HS
Graduates 1990-91 through 2001-02 (actual)
2002-03 through 2017-18 (projected)
Source Western Interstate Commission on Higher
Education (WICHE)
29
What Does the Future Hold?North Carolina
Asian/Pacific Islander Public HS Graduates
1990-91 through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03
through 2017-18 (projected)
Source Western Interstate Commission on Higher
Education (WICHE)
30
What Does the Future Hold?North Carolina
Black/Non-Hispanic Public HS Graduates 1990-91
through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18
(projected)
Source Western Interstate Commission on Higher
Education (WICHE)
31
What Does the Future Hold?North Carolina
Hispanic Public HS Graduates 1990-91 through
2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18
(projected)
Source Western Interstate Commission on Higher
Education (WICHE)
32
What Does the Future Hold?North Carolina
White/Non-Hispanic Public HS Graduates 1990-91
through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18
(projected)
Source Western Interstate Commission on Higher
Education (WICHE)
33
Projecting Demand for UNC Campuses

• OP developed and used a single projection model
  for several years.
• In 2003, two additional projection models were
  developed and used
• High School Graduates Projection ModelProvides
  more detailed data about the size of the freshman
  class and use 20 mutually exclusive categories
  for projecting students.
• Census ModelDeveloped to track the general
  population and to check expectations at the
  graduate level.
• In 2005, the County Diversity Model has been
  developed to attempt to track demographic
  changes in diversity within NC counties.
• For the next ten-year plan, projections are
  provided based on the HS Grad, Census, and
  County Diversity Models.

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NC Public High School Graduates
35
High School Graduates Projection Model(Total
Headcount to 2015)
(actual)
36
County Diversity Model(Total Headcount to 2015)
(actual)
37
Census Model(Total Headcount to 2015)
(actual)
38
Average of the Three Models(Total Headcount to
2015)
(actual)
39
Relation of the Models (Total Headcount to 2015)
40
Current and Projected Public High School
Graduates
41
Postsecondary Participation Rates for Adults Ages
18-24, by Sex and Race/Ethnicity 1974-2003
42
Postsecondary Participation Rates for Adults Ages
18-24, by Combination of Sex and Race/Ethnicity
1974-2003
43
Diversity of High School Graduates in
Mecklenburg County
44
Diversity of High School Graduates in Wake
County
45
Diversity of High School Graduates in Gaston
County
46
Diversity of High School Graduates in Hoke County
47
Goals for Student Success, Retention, and
Graduation

• Focus on student learning.
• Acquire the ability to collect and analyze data
  about all factors relevant to retention and
  graduation.
• Have a campus commitment to improve retention and
  graduation rates.
• Have an active team on campus for guiding and
  monitoring retention policy.
• Have a clear set of practices and procedures on
  campuses to address shifts in retention and
  graduation performance or changes in composition
  of freshman class.
• Have faculty, staff, and administrative
  leadership commitment to improvement.
• Have benchmarks for improving retention and
  graduation rates.