Instructional Objectives

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Instructional Objectives

• Define a Future Book and calculate the books
  advantage.
• Demonstrate how a future books odds are moved.

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Future Book

• Definition set of odds on who will win a series
  of events where more than 2 contestants are
  competing
• Examples super bowl, world series, Winbledon,
  etc.

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Future Books (superbowl, world series, etc.)

• Odds to Win Superbowl (99)
• Green Bay 5-2
• Denver 7-2
• 49ers 5-1
• Vikings 7-1
• Jaguars 9-1
• Chiefs 9-1
• Colts 350-1

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Calculating Books Advantage

• Odds to Win World Series
• Royals 85
• Astros 21
• Yankees 52
• Cardinals 51

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First sum probabilities of winning

• 85 5/13 .3846
• 21 1/3 .3333
• 52 2/7 .2857
• 51 1/6 .1667
• Total 1.1703

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Formula

• Books Advantage

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Guideline for Moving Futures
To Discourage Betting
15, 25, 35, 45, EVEN, 65, 75, 85, 95,
21, 52, 31, 72, 41, 51, 61, 71, 81, 91,
101, 121, 151, 201, 301, 401, 501, 751,
1001, 2001
To Encourage Betting
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Example

• Assume Maximum Risk at at Price is 2,000

• Odds to Win World Series
• Odds Bet Pay
• Royals 85 100 260
• Astros 21 400 1,200
• Yankees 52 50 175
• Cardinals 51 400 2,400

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Too Much Money at Risk on Cardinals

• Must move line to discourage betting on Cards.
• Which direction? From 51 to ???
• What is more attractive to bettor 41 or 61?
• Moving line to 41 discourages betting.

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Effect on Books Advantage

• This movement increases casinos advantage about
  4.
• Bookmaker will now subtract the same amount by
  increasing the payoff odds on one or more teams.

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• Since favorite odds decreased, bookmaker will
  increase odds a like amount on another favorite.
• The Astros will be moved from 21 to 52.
• Another reason for moving Astros both Cards and
  Astros are in National League.
• Only one team in National League can be in World
  Series.

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Most Future Books have a theoretical advantage of
between 20 and 50.
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Odd Bets

• Proposition Bets
• Fantasy Games
• Pari-mutuel Sports

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Boxing

• Money line moved same as baseball except
• the more uncertainty or the more prohibitive the
  favorite, the larger the line
• normal movement is ¼th of the money spread
• -300, 200 becomes -325, 225

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Fiscal 1998 L.V. Strip - Win

• Football 2.59
• Basketball 3.42
• Baseball 1.45
• Sports Parlay Cards 26.34