http://mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/

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AMY08 Science and Implementation Plan
http//mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/
Jun Matsumoto Bin Wang The 2nd AMY08
Workshop at Bali, Indonesia, September 3-4,
2007 Kuta Beach in the morning of September 2,
2007
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Backgroung (1)

• August, 2006 The concept of the AMY08 was
  first proposed in the international workshop,
  Impact of elevated aerosols on
  radiation-monsoon-water cycle interaction in
  Xining.
• The proposal has gained strong supports from
  CLIVAR and GEWEX of WCRP. The AMY08 concept has
  stimulated continuing discussions at
  GEWEX/MAHARSI monsoon workshop, Tokyo, January
  8-10 2007, the GEWEX SSG meeting, Honolulu,
  January 22-25 2007, and CLIVAR/AA-Monsoon Panel
  Meeting, Honolulu, Feb. 19-22, 2007.

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Backgroung (2)

• On Mar. 26-30 2007 in the 28th WCRP-JSC in
  Zanzibar, Tanzania, the JSC has endorsed the
  concept of the AMY08 and the International
  Monsoon Study (IMS) as a major initiative to
  promote broad-based climate research for the
  monsoon systems of the world. The AMY08
  initiative was visualized as a coordinated
  national and international observation and
  modeling activity to better understand the
  ocean-land-atmosphere interaction and the
  aerosol-cloud-radiation-monsoon interaction of
  the Asian monsoon system, for improving monsoon
  prediction.

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Backgroung (3)

• A series of conferences or workshops has been
  organized to coordinate the ongoing activities
  and to plan the AMY08 after the WCRP-JSC
  meeting. China hosted the 1-st International
  Workshop on AMY08 in Beijing, Apr. 23-25 2007.
  Informal discussions have been continued in IUGG
  XXIV 2007 Monsoon system session in Perugia,
  Italy Jul. 2-13 2007, International symposium,
  Celebrating the monsoon, July 24-28 2007 at
  Bangalore, India, and the AOGS, Thailand Jul.
  30-Aug. 4 2007.

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Backgroung (4)

• Following the resolution of the First
  International Workshop on AMY08 at Beijing, the
  Second AMY08 workshop jointly hosted by CLIVAR
  and GEWEX is now held at Bali, Indonesia on
  September 3-4, 2007. The major objectives of this
  workshop are to discuss and finalize the Science
  plan and Implementation Plan for AMY08.

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Science Plan for Asian Monsoon Year 2008(Draft
Ver. 5 August 30, 2007)Outline

• 1. Introduction
• 1.1 Programmatic development
• 1.2 Participants
• 2. Science background
• 2.1 Diurnal cycle
• 2.2 Intraseasonal variability
• 2.3 Annual cycle
• 2.4 Interannual variability
• 2.5 Interdecadal variability and future change
• 2.6 Extreme and high impact weather
• 3. Science foci
• 3.1 Cross-cutting themes
• 3.2 Overarching science questions

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• 4. Goals and objectives
• 4.1 The overarching goals
• 4.2 Objectives
• 5. Strategy
• 5.1 Balanced and integrated approach
• 5.2 Geographic foci and capacity building
• 5.3 Organization
• 5.4 Collaboration and linkages
• 6. Planned activities
• 6.1 Field experiments Ocean, Land, Special
  processes
• 6.2 Data management Archiving and assimilation
  
• 6.3 Modeling coordination Global coupled
  models, Regional models
• 7. Expectations (contributions to AMY, resources,
  timelines)

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2.1 Diurnal cycles

• What is the fundamental relationship between
  diurnal cycle and surface orography and land/sea
  configurations?
• Is there any specific distance that land derived
  diurnal signal propagates over the surrounding
  ocean?
• How much diurnal variations over the open ocean
  affect the diurnal cloud/rainfall variations?
• How are diurnal cycles are modulated by MISO and
  seasonal cycle?
• How important is the modulation of the diurnal
  cycle in interannual monsoon variations?
• How can we improve the model physics and correct
  the model diurnal errors? Will the models getting
  diurnal cycle right improve the modeling of
  low-frequency variability (intraseasonal to
  interannual)?

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GPS SG
Example in Sumatera Island (Wu et al., submitted)
Observation (TRMM) much rainfall over the Indian
Ocean in the vicinity of Sumatera ?
however Simulation (high-resolution GCM) much
rainfall over Sumatera island Climatology of
rainfall around Sumatera strongly depends on
moisture transport processes induced by maritime
continent.
TRMM (2A25) 6-year average rainfall (1998- 2003)
Rainfall system around Sumatera could be
simulated by cloud-resolving numerical model.
MRI-GCM TL959 (20km mesh) 10-year
average rainfall
2004 April mean rainfall (mm/hour) simulated by
MM5
mm/year
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2.2 ISV

• How do we evaluate model simulations and measure
  ISO predictability and prediction skill?
• What are the current level of performances and
  common problems in the models? How to correct
  these systematic errors?
• How do the errors in simulating ISO impact
  simulation of the interannual variability?
• To what extent is the MISO predictable?
• What roles does atmosphere-ocean-land interaction
  play in sustaining MISO?
• What is the role of mesoscale systems in
  determining the heating profile
  (convective/stratiform) and how does this impact
  the evolution of ISO? How to get them right in
  the models?

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2.2 ISV (continued)

• Do models simulate correctly the heating
  partitioning between the small-scale, high
  frequency and large-scale, low frequency
  disturbances?
• What is the role of radiative heating in tropical
  heating profile? How do model properly moistening
  the lower-troposphere?
• What is the influence of MJO on tropical cyclone
  and extratropical predictability?
• How do low-frequency components of climate
  modulate MISO and its statistical

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Satellite Observed Boreal Summer ISO (1998-2005)
Numbers four phases, phase interval 8 days
Wang et al. 2006

• Northward propagation in Bay of Bengal (Yasunari
  1979, 1980, Sikka and Gadgel 1980) and
  northwestward propagation in WNP (Nitta 1987)
• Formation of NW-SE tilted anomaly rain band
  (Maloney and Hartmann 1998, Annamalai and Slingo
  2001, Kemball-Cook and Wang 2001, Lawrence and
  Webster 2002, Waliser et al. 2003)
• Initiation in the western EIO (60-70E) (Wang,
  Webster and Teng 05)
• Seesaw between BOB and ENP and between EEIO and
  WNP.

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2.3 Annual cycle

• Archive dataset that can describe the
  comprehensive features of seasonal cycles of the
  Asian and Australian monsoon.
• Identify the principal physical processes which
  determine the onset and retreat of regional
  monsoon system, in particular, occurring abrupt
  manners.
• Design metrics for objective, quantitative
  assessing model performance, predictability and
  prediction skill.
• Provide one-stop data source for cross-project
  use.
• Identify key modeling issues and develop
  effective strategy for improving models.

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2.3 Annual cycle (continued)

• Encourage use of large-domain cloud resolving
  model or cloud system resolving model simulation
  to provide surrogate data for studying convective
  organization, and multi-scale interaction in
  MISO.
• Improve initialization scheme, initial
  conditions, and representation of slow coupled
  physics in the coupled climate models.
• Develop new strategy and methodology for
  sub-seasonal monsoon prediction.
• Better understand physical basis for seasonal
  prediction and the ways to quantify the
  uncertainties associated the prediction.

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AGCMs simulate climatology poorly over the WNP
heat source region
Kang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn
Wang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn
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Two-tier 5-AGCM MME hindcast of JJA rainfall (21
yrs)
Pattern Correlation Coefficient
5-AGCM EM hindcast skill (21Yr)

• Two-tier system was unable to predict ASM
  rainfall.
• TTS tends to yield positive SST-rainfall
  correlations in SM region that are at odds with
  observation (negative).
• Treating monsoon as a slave to prescribed SST
  results in the failure.

OBS SST-rainfall correlation
Model SST-rainfall correlation
(Wang et al. 2005)
Wang et al. 2005
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Need to understand Multi-Scale Interrelation In
Monsoon ISO
Slingo 2006 THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report
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Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and
Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2
Scenario
The general conclusion that emerges of the
diagnostics of the IPCC AR4 simulations Asian
summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be enhanced.
From Kumar et al.
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4.1 The Overarching goals

• The goal of AMY08 is to significantly advance
  our understanding of the physical processes
  determining the Asian monsoon variability and
  predictability, to improve Asian monsoon
  predictions on intraseasonal and seasonal time
  scales for societal benefits as well as for
  additional benefit of each participating
  projects, and to promote applications in order to
  support strategies for sustainable development.
  Success in meeting this overarching goal is
  critical to the new World Climate Research
  Program (WCRP) strategic framework.

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4.2 Objectives

• In meeting the above goal, the AMY08 aims to
• (1) Improve understanding of the
  ocean-land-atmosphere-biosphere interaction,
  multi-scale interaction from diurnal to
  intraseasonal, and aerosol-monsoon water cycle
  interaction in the Asian monsoon system. (Prof.
  Wu Dr. Lau)
• (2) Determine the variability and predictability
  of the key components of Asian monsoon on
  intraseasonal to interannual time scales. In
  particular, the role of land surface processes in
  continental monsoon rainfall prediction. (Dr.
  Sikka)

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4.2 Objectives (continued)

• (3) Improve physical representation in coupled
  climate models and develop data assimilation of
  the ocean-atmosphere-land system in monsoon
  regions in order to advance climate prediction
  system with better forecast skill for seasonal
  and intraseasonal prediction of Asian monsoon.
  (Prof. Koike Dr. Tam)
• (4) Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction
  system (with lead time up to a season), including
  a real-time monitoring capability and an
  integrated hydro-meteorological database in
  Southeast Asia. (Prof. Satomura Prof. Hansa)

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4.2 Objectives (continued)

• (5) Better understand how human activities in the
  monsoon Asia region interact with atmospheric,
  terrestrial and marine environmental components.
  (Dr. Ailikun, Prof. Yasunari)

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New coordinated field observation plan

• Asian Monsoon Year 2008 (AMY08)
• GEWEX- MAHASRI, CEOP
• CLIVAR- AMMP, IOP, POP
• ESSP-MAIRS
• WWRP-TMR TCS08
• THORPEX-YOTC, T-PARC
• China- 973AIPO,SCHeRex,NPOIMS.
• Chinese Taipei- SoWMEX, DOTSTAR, EAMEX
• India- STORM, CTCZ, IIMX/Rain, CAIPEX
• Japan- JEPP, JAMSTEC/IORGC, PRAISE, ARCS-Asia,
  PHONE08
• Korea- PHONE08
• USA- JAMEX

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5.3 OrganizationAMY08 Working Groups
(2007.04.25)

• Scientific Steering Committee (Responsible for
  science and implementation plan)
• Chairs Bin Wang, Jun Matsumoto
• Members Guoxiong Wu, William Lau, Toshio Koike,
  D.R. Sikka, S. Gadgil, Tandong Yao, Congbin Fu,
  Renhe Zhang, Tetsuzo Yasunari, C.-P. Chang,
  Jagadish Shukla, Yihui Ding
• AMY Program Office Jianping Li

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5.3 Organization (continued)

• Observation Coordination Working Group
• Chairs Dongxiao Wang, Manabu D. Yamanaka
• Members Zhanqing Li, Yaoming Ma, Yunqi Ni,
  Jong-Dao Jou, Popuri Sanjeeva Rao, R.C. Bhatia,
  Xiangde Xu, Si-Chee Tsay, Jianping Huang, Hongbin
  Chen, A. Higuchi, T. Nakajima, N. Christina Hsu,
  Brent Holben, Somchai Baimoung, Thi Tan Thanh
  Nguyen, Kok-Seng Yap, Fadli Syamsudin,
  Dolgorsuren Azzaya, Samarendra Karmakar, Madan L.
  Shrestha
• Central Data Archiving and Management Working
  Group
• Chairs Kooiti Masuda, Guangqing Zhou
• Members Si-Chee Tsay, Kumar D. Preveen, Chi-yung
  Francis Tam, Mei Gao, M. Rajeevan

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5.3 Organization (continued)

• Modeling and Prediction Working Group
• Chairs Harry Hendon, Takehiko Satomura
• Members B. N. Goswami, Kun Yang, Xueshun Shen,
  Johnny Chan, Yongqiang Yu, Dehui Chen, Ailikun,
  In-Sik Kang, Jinhai He, Edvin Aldrian, Weijing
  Li, U.C. Mohanty

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The END
Thank you! Terima kasih!
.