AseanBurma : Way Forward or No Way out

1
Asean-Burma Way Forward
or No Way out!

• By
• Kavi Chongkittavorn
• The Nation
• 19 June 2009
• ISIS, Chulalongkorn University

2
Asean-Burma relations (1)

• Before Asean was found 42 years ago, Burma was
  asked in 1967 to join as one of founding members
• Burma refused and branded Asean as an imperialist
  organization, citing principle of strict
  neutrality
• After 27 years of no-contact, Burma attended the
  1994 Asean ministerial meeting in Bangkok as
  guest of the host, Thailand
• In January 1995, Asean SOM decided in BKK to take
  in Burma as a member without any condition
• Reasons to counter Chinas rising influence
  inside Burma, southward movement and end
  Rangoons international isolation

3
Asean-Burma relations (2)

• Burma picked Singapore and Indonesia to break the
  ice during June 1995 visit by their leaders
• On 7 July 1995, Burmas envoy, Nyi Nyi Thun, in
  Jakarta, informed Asean its readiness to accede
  to Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and
  becomes an observer
• Aung Sann Suu Kyi released on 10 July 1995 from
  house arrest as Asean fought against growing
  criticism of Western dialogue partners on Burma
• In Brunei, 25 July 1995, Burma acceded to TAC
  (Laos and Vietnam acceded in 1992)

4
Asean-Burma relations (3)

• Planned meeting between ASSK-Asean diplomats on
  19 July 1995 in Rangoon was cancelled after
  Burmas protest in Brunei
• Subsequent attempt by ASSK to communicate with
  Asean foreign ministers failed in 1995
• Burma attended the Asean Summit in Bangkok, Dec
  1995, and signed the anti-nuke pact SEANWFZ
• Malaysia and Indonesia strongly backed Burmas
  admission to Asean
• Burma joined Asean in 1997, citing independent
  and active foreign policy
• Burma joined Asean Regional Forum in 1997
• Burma joined Asia Europe Meeting in Hanoi, Oct
  2004

5
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation

• Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty,
  equality, territorial integrity national identity
  to all
• National existence free from external
  interference, subversion or coercion
• Noninterference in the internal affairs of one
  another
• Settlement of disputes by peaceful means
• Renunciation of the threat or use of forces
• China, India signed TAC in Oct03, Japan in July
  2004
• Russia, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, East
  Timor, France acceded to TAC in 2005
• East Timor, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh
  acceded to TAC last year
• EU signed a protocol to accede TAC in Cambodia,
  May 09
• US plans to accede TAC in July, Phuket

6
Aseanisation vs Internationalisation

• 1991-1994 Asean defended Burma blindly
• 1994-1997 North-South and East-West divided
• 1997-2003 Asean peer pressure failed
• After Depayin-May 2003, swift internationalisation
  through UN efforts (HR, special envoy, UNSC),
  Asean frustration increased
• Japans new attitudes towards Burma
• EU New Strategies towards Southeast Asia
• Burmese Freedom Democracy Act renewed annually
  by US Congress since its inception in 2003
• Burma skipped chairmanship in 2006

7
Development since 2003

• August 03, Cabinet reshuffle, Gen Khint Nyunt as
  PM
• 30 August 2003, 7-point Roadmap to Democracy
• NLD Party chairman Aung Shwe and party secretary
  U Lwin freed on 14 April 2004
• 17 April 2004, NLD headquarter in Rangoon opens
• EUs 2 conditions to admit Burma in Asem Suu
  Kyis release, NLD participation in the national
  convention
• Expected release of Suu Kyi in April 2004 failed
• Reconvene national convention, drafting starts,
  adoption of news charter
• Early Oct, Khint Nyunts dismissal of on charge
  of corruptions

8
Asean-BurmaAfter the Depayin attack

• Asean criticised Suu Kyis detention and called
  for her release and dialogue
• Asean temporarily stopped defending Burma about
  170 days from May 31 to Oct 6, 2003
• Asean suffers much from Burmas membership more
  than its members admitted
• Weakened ties with dialogue partners US, EU
• Indonesia and Philippines stood up while Thailand
  spoke for Burma
• After Gen Khint Nyunts dismissal, Singapore,
  Malaysia, Indonesia getting firmer on Burma

9
Various efforts on Burma

• Asean Troika, Asean special envoy
• Bangkok Process
• Friends of Burma
• UN roadmap and framework
• Rangoons 7-point Road to democracy
• Track 2 EPG on Burma, Asean-Isis,
  Parliamentairian Caucus on Burma
• Japans comprehensive policy on Burma
• Indonesias new peace plan on Burma (pending)
• Newly convergence of international solidarity in
  support of Suu Kyis freedom

10
Development after Sept 2007

• Asean expressed revulsion against Burmas use
  of violence against monks and protestors
• UN plays bigger role through a special UN envoy,
  Ibrahim Gambari
• China cooperates more but vetoes solutions
• Burma issue discussed in the council twice,
• More targeted financial sanction against regime
  leaders and their cronies by US
• EU shifts to more aid, more engagements

11
Development after Sept 2007

• Re-internationalization of Burmese issue, on the
  news headlines againhow long?
• Saffron revolution along with Orange, Pink, Silk
  revolutions
• Asean expressed revulsion against the killing
  of Buddhist monksrhetoric only, no action
• Burma prefers UN more than Aseancan deal with
  major players better e.g. China and Russia
• Stronger UN/UNSC involvement--no concrete results
• China and Russia are Burmas UNSC supporters
• Refocus on Thailands role as frontline state as
  well as China and India

12
Asean chairs statement 19/5/09

• Expressed grave concern to Daw Aung San Suu Kyis
  fragile health
• ASEAN Leaders had called her release several
  times
• Urge Burma to protect and promote human rights,
  providing adequate medical care and her humane
  treatment with dignity
• Burmas creditability is at stake (if there
  still is)
• Thailand, as the ASEAN Chair, reaffirms ASEANs
  readiness to contribute constructively to the
  national reconciliation process and the peaceful
  transition of democracy there

13
Proposed Indonesian draft

• 1. The Governments of Brunei Darussalam,
  Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore,
  and Thailand deeply regret the current process to
  bring  Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to trial which takes
  place at the time when all parties concerned on
  the development of Myanmar are exploring ways and
  means to have Aung San Suu Kyi's arbitrary
  detention reviewed with a view to releasing her.
  (Brunei also supported this draft)
•  2. We strongly urge the Government of Myanmar
  to refrain from taking measures that might worsen
  the situation, hence compromising the country's
  peaceful transition to democracy. 3. We remind
  the Government of Myanmar that it has ratified
  the ASEAN Charter and, therefore, assumed the
  responsibility to fulfill all its obligations
  contained therein. These include the promotion
  and protection of human rights. Failing to do so
  would only jeopardise the credibility of ASEAN
  and obstructing its integration process. 4.
  Recalling the previous ASEAN Leaders Statements,
  we reiterate our demand that Aung San Suu Kyi be
  released immediately from her imprisonment and
  followed by the re-institution of the
  democratisation process that the Government of
  Myanmar has established. 5. We stand ready to
  play a constructive role to contribute to the
  Government of Myanmar's efforts in this
  regard.  

14
Non-interference vs Asean Charter

• The charter has 14 principles--all inclusive
• Article 2.2e Non-interference
• Article 2.2b shared commitment and collective
  responsibility in enhancing regional peace,
  security and prosperity
• Article 2.2g enhanced consultations on matters
  seriously affecting the common interest of Asean
• All principles must be embraced and applied
  collectively

15
Burmas tactics and diplomacy

• A self-sufficient pariah state with strong armed
  forces (with possible nuclear capacity in the
  futureNorth Koreas model)
• Playing one power against another--China vs
  India, US vs China, UN vs Asean and so on
• Use Asean to win international sympathy/support
  and channel for aid
• Use its huge energy and natural resources to
  attract foreign investors, break-up international
  consensus among resources hungry Western nations
• Use its own political frameworks May 10, 2008
  reference and planned 2010 election
• Use foreign assistance for its own economic
  recovery
• Join the global anti-terrorism campaign

16
Future of Burma in Asean

• Hide behind non-interference principle, which is
  increasingly difficult because of the Asean
  Charter and collective responsibility
• Cooperate with Laos, Cambodia, VN (next Asean
  chair) to maintain status quo after the Asean
  Charter was adopted
• Make sure the Asean Human Rights Body has no
  teethonly promotion with little or no
  protection, no country visits, no periodic review
• Some Asean leaders said resumption of Burmas
  chairmanship was not automatic!
• Burmas voluntary quitting Asean (pulled out of
  NAM in 1979 and returned a decade later)an
  option
• Make sure no increase in Asean membership fee
  US700,000 per year or US1918 per day

17
What should we expect?

• Burma will engage with UN and Asean the Burmese
  Way
• Juntas tighter grips of power and more
  suppression on dissidents
• Continuation to isolate Aung San Suu Kyi from
  political process
• Burma continues with its political roadmap (five
  of seven steps have already accomplished)
• Support of China and Russia over the Asean
  chairs statement is expected soon
• India is still silent, could affect Asean-India
  ties if current international solidarity holds.
• Possibility of returning to Asean chair in 2011
  after VNs chairmanship expires in 2010a move to
  legitimize the junta after the planned 2010
  election
• Asean leaders could discuss the Burmese issue at
  the Asean Summit in October, Phuket
• Mild sanction against Burma! No suspension, no
  expulsion, of course
• Burma needs US691 million for three-year
  recovery plan for post-Nargis and international
  community and relief agencies want more access
  and transparency
• Asean need helps and training in emergency
  operation and disastrous management