Managing Climate Change in the Farm Sector

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Managing Climate Change in the Farm Sector

• Helal Ahammad

2
format

• nature extent of climate change and impacts
• adaptation options in agriculture
• Gippsland case study

3
nature of climate change

• changes in average temperature and rainfall
• changes in the severity and frequency of extreme
  weather and climatic events
• droughts
• Floods
• Frosts, and
• heat waves
• uncertainty and limited regional details

4
climate change impacts

• biophysical (land, water, ocean acidification)
• environmental (ecosystems, biodiversity)
• social (human health, permanent displacement)
• economic (cascading effects of all the above)

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impacts on agriculture

• agriculture is particularly affected
• changes in rainfall, temperature and climate
  extremes
• changes in land, water, human and animal health
• changes in agricultural productivity

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impacts on Australian agriculture

• 1ºC increase in temperature
• 250-310 litre (or 6) p.a. decline in milk
  production/cow in Hunter Valley
• 4.2 decline in total factor productivity in
  wheat production in NSW
• 7.3 decline in total factor productivity in
  wheat production in WA

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impacts on Australian agriculture (contd.)

• 1-2ºC increase in temperature
• 15 decline in pasture productivity
• 12 decline in liveweight gain in cattle
• 3-4ºC increase in temperature
• 128 increase in tick related losses in net
  cattle production weight

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impacts on Australian agriculture (contd.)

• ABAREs illustrative scenario analysis
• assumed decline in agricultural productivity by
  2050 (Cline 2007)
• 17 in Australia
• up to 25 in other key economies
• assumed decline in overall economic activity by
  2050 (Stern 2006)
• 5 in developed countries,
• 10 in developing countries
• assumed no mitigation and adapation

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impacts on Australian production,without
mitigation or adaptation ( change relative to
the reference case)
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agriculture adapting to climate change

• will occur on-farm and will be ongoing
• considerable productivity improvements will be
  required

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adaptation options in agriculture - cropping

• alter crop varieties
• increased resistance to heat, frost, drought,
  pests and diseases
• alter fertilisation and water application times
  and amounts
• alter timing and location of cropping activities
• use zero tillage, retain crop residues, change
  planting patterns, reduce fallow times
• enhance water efficiency
• reduce soil erosion
• expand water harvesting technologies and conserve
  soil moisture

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adaptation options in agriculture - livestock

• adapt annual production cycle to better match
  feed production
• alter pasture rotations and modify grazing times
• alter forage and animal species or breeds
• provide supplementary feeding
• provide alternative housing infrastructure, eg
  increased shading
• change or improve feed concentrates

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the Gippsland dairy sector an Overview

• about 2,600 dairy farms
• 50 of Victoria
• 32 of Australia
• in 2006-07, 1.8b litres of milk production
• fluctuated over 1998/9 to 2006/7
• 1/3rd of Victorias
• 19 of Australias dairy production
• production mainly based on grazing
• mostly dependent on rainfall
• about 3 land area is irrigated

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recent trends in Gippsland dairy
index 1989-99 100
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recent trends in Gippsland dairy
index 1998-99 100
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recent trends in Gippsland dairy
index 1998-99 100
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recent trends in Gippsland dairy
index 1998-99 100
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recent trends in Gippsland dairy average number
of cows per farm
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continued growth in productivity in the
Australian dairy sector

• change in management practices and production
  technologies
• dairy cattle genetics
• herd health
• shed management
• pasture management, and
• supplementary feeding
• industry consolidation

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concluding remarks

• climate change a new challenge
• improved understanding needed for
• climate change impacts at multiple scales
• adaptation opportunities
• abatement potentials and costs
• roles for both industry and government