International Lecture Series

1
International Lecture Series
Senate World Education Council and International
Studies present

• The International Impact of Global Warming -
• History, Science, Controversies
• 17 November 2003
• Dr. Peter Mark Jansson PP PE

2
Aims

• Review the History of CO2 and Warming
• The Scientific Basis for Climate Change
• Broaden Understanding of the Factors Surrounding
  Climate Change
• Potential Impacts of Scenarios
• Discuss What We Can Do

3
Greenhouse Effect

• Without it, life on Earth as we know it would not
  be possible

4
History

• Joseph Fourier (1820) gases trap solar heat
• John Tyndale (1859) identified heat trapping
  gases in lab
• Svante Arrhenius (1896) modeled Earths gases
• Arvid Hogbom (1896) estimated gas emissions
• T.C. Chamberlain (1898) CO2 varies/drives ice
  ages
• Knut Anstrom (1900) IR and CO2 in tube no
  change
• E.O. Hulbert (1931) absorption bands for CO2
• AMS (1951) H20 gas absorbs all that CO2 would
  have done

5
More Data to Dismiss Issue

• The Oceans contain more than 50 times the amount
  of C02 in all of the atmosphere
• Organic matter absorbs more C02 and grows more
  profusely in a C02 rich environment
• The self-regulating mechanisms of the
  carbon-cycle can cope with the present influx of
  carbon of fossil origin
• Hutchinson 1948

6
But it wouldnt go away

• Guy Stewart Callendar (1938)
• Compiled temperature data from the 19th century
• U.S. Weather Bureau (1941)
• no probable increase in CO2 could materially
  affect the balance of radiation.
• Research by definition is done at the frontier
  of ignorance American Institute of Physics

7
The prophets are right?

• Walter Elsasser (1932) Angstom experiment
  flawed
• Lewis D. Kaplan (1952) In the upper atmosphere
  CO2 is weak and not overlapping with H2O at key
  band width locations
• Gilbert N. Plass (1956) CO2 will interfere with
  IR balance
• Hans Suess (1955) Industrial carbon found in
  atmosphere
• Roger Ravelle (1957) The chemistry of seas
  would not allow oceans surface layer to absorb
  extra CO2 it took up (1/10th)
• Bert Bolin and Erik Eriksson (1959)

8
Three more points

• Cooling trend in the 40s seemed to raise more
  doubts as to what we really could know about the
  Earths complex carbon cycle
• Charles David Keeling brings resolution to the
  measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere
• Vostock station, central Antarctica, French-
  Soviet team goes back in time through an ice core
  
• 150,000 years (1985) 2 kilometer long ice core
• 400,00 years (1999)

9
CO2 and the Past (from The Vostock Core)
10
CO2 and the Present (after Keeling)

11
For more info

• Visit the American Institute of Physics
• Center for History of Physics
• On the web http//www.aip.org/history/

12
What is Climate Change?

• In IPCC usage (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change) Climate Change refers to any change in
  climate over time, whether due to natural
  variability or as a result of human activity
• The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the
  World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
  United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) with a
  very specific charge

13
IPCC Charter

• i) To assess available scientific and
  socio-economic information on climate change and
  its impacts and the options for mitigating
  climate change and adapting to it
• ii) To provide, on request, scientific /
  technical / socio-economic advice to the
  Conference of Parties to the United Nations
  Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• Houghton, et. al., Climate Change 2001,
  Cambridge University Press

14
IPCC Report (3rd Assessment)

• Approved in January 2001 by IPCC Member
  Governments (99 countries participating)
• Findings of many hundreds of Scientists -
• 122 Coordinating Lead Authors
• 515 Contributing Authors
• 21 Review Editors
• 420 Expert Reviewers

15
What Have We Learned?
16
What Does the Report Say?

• Over the 20th century
• Global average surface temperature (average of
  near surface air over land and sea surface
  temperature) has increased since 1861
• Since 1900 the increase has been 0.6o C /- 0.2o
  C
• Globally it is very likely (90-99 probability)
  that
• a) The 1990s was the warmest decade and
• b) 1998 the warmest year in the instrumental
  record
• since 1861
• Likely (66-90) that increase during 20th century
  in North Hemisphere is largest in 1000 years and
  a), b) as well

17
Global Surface Temperature
18
Likelihood is High
19
IPCC Report Continued

• On average, Between 1950 and 1993
• Night-time daily minimum temperature over land
  increased by 0.2o C per decade
• This is twice the rate of daily daytime maximum
  temperatures (0.1o C)
• Lengthened freeze-free season in mid high
  latitudes
• Since satellite record and balloons (1979)
• Lowest 8 km of atmosphere up 0.05oC per decade
• Surface temperature is rising 0.15oC per decade

20
Areas of Change

• Snow Cover and Ice Formation -
• Very likely (90-99) decrease of 10 in the
  extent of snow cover since 1960
• Very likely (90-99) reduction in lake and river
  ice cover in mid and high latitudes of NE over
  20th century
• Tide and Ocean Heat Content
• Global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2
  meters during the 20th century
• Global ocean heat content rose since data has
  been collected in the 1950s
• Increases in precipitation (1 pd) and clouds (2)

21
Sea Level Rise is Real
22
Sea Level Rise Causes
23
Precipitation is Increased
24
Cost of Severe Weather is Increasing
25
Many Factors Affect Climate Change

• Atmospheric Composition
• Surface Reflectance
• Solar Variation

26
Radiative Forcing
27
Atmospheric Composition

• Nitrogen and Nitrogen Oxides
• Oxygen and Ozone
• H2O
• CO2
• CH4
• N2O
• Sulfates
• Many other gases, etc.

28
Earths Carbon Cycle
29
Present Evidence

• Global Warming is mostly from Anthropogenic
  sources
• Climate Models Predict Current Trends Well
• Major Source is Our Industrialization Activities
  and Use of Fossil Fuel Energy

30
The Real Data is Compelling
31
The ModelNatural vs. Anthropogenic Sources
32
Future Scenarios

• Quite a range or scenarios considered
• A1 rapid economic growth
• A2 slowing population growth
• B1 stabilized global population
• B2 slow growth w/ environ. emphasis

33
The Model Future Earth Temperatures
34
The Model
35
Is anything going to change quickly?
36
Mitigation

• Efficiency Improvements
• Fuel conversion
• End-Use
• Hybrid vehicles
• Low carbon fuel development
• Wind turbines
• Nuclear technologies

37
What Might it Mean to Us?

• Greater volatility in material and energy prices
  and supplies
• Gradual increase in temperatures and
  precipitation in NE
• Compounded by more volatile weather
• Actual increase in sea levels
• Carbon Tax/Credit system likely

38
Become Proactive in Your Future

• Keep on top of sustainability dialogue
• Encourage policy changes toward sustainability
• US signed Kyoto Protocol in 1998
• It remains Unratified
• Growth is not beneficial, smart development is.
• Buy from companies that support the environment
• Biofuels Renewable development important
• Population stabilization, efficient resource use,
  minimize nonrenewable depletion, prevent soil
  depletion, slow all exponential growth

39
Other Case Studies - WBCSD

• http//www.wbcsd.ch/
• Further, the following WBCSD member companies
  have been rated sustainability leaders in their
  market sector Sector Sustainability Leader
• Automobiles Toyota Chemicals DuPont
• Cyclical Goods Services Philips Energy BP
• Food Beverages Unilever Healthcare Novozymes
• Industrial Goods Services 3M Insurance Swiss Re
• Non cyclical Goods Services Procter Gamble
• Utilities Severn Trent

40
Dow-Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI)

• to quantify the sustainability performance of an
  enterprise by focusing on a company's pursuit of
  sustainability opportunities
• meeting market demand for sustainable products
  and services
• the reduction, ideally avoidance, of
  sustainability risks and costs
• This assessment is in line with the five
  corporate sustainability principles -
• innovative technology
• corporate governance
• shareholder relations
• industrial leadership
• social well being
• that are focused on the integration of economic,
  ecological and social factors into business
  strategies.

41
DJSI Performance

• The results of the 2003 annual review for the Dow
  Jones Sustainability Indexes (DJSI) were
  announced on September 4 by Dow Jones Indexes,
  STOXX Limited and SAM Group. Launched in 1999,
  the DJSI are the first global indexes tracking
  the financial performance of leading
  sustainability-driven companies worldwide
• Since the last review in September 2002, the DJSI
  World (in USD) has outperformed the mainstream
  market, rising 23.1, compared with 21.2 for the
  MSCI and 22.7 for the DJ World Index