9:30 Welcome

1
930 Welcome 935 Oscar Alves, BMRC, "Summary of
POAMA/ACCESS progress" 955 Greg Harper, MLA,
"Overview of pastoral industries needs from
seasonal forecasting" 1015 John Sims, BRS,
"Overview BRS needs of improved seasonal
forecasting and POAMA output for
agriculture" 1035 John Sims, BRS, "An example
of how POAMA output might be applied to the MLA
rainfall to pasture growth" 1055
Discussion 1105 Coffee 1120 Zvi Hochman,
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, "Proposal for
incorporating POAMA/ACCESS output into Yield
Prophet" 1140 Jeff Maynard, GBRMPA , "Use of
POAMA forecasts for Coral Bleaching" 1200 Peter
McIntosh, CSIRO, "Just give me a rainfall
forecast!" - Connecting models to end
users. 1220 Tim Pugh, BMRC, Research data
server 1230 Brad Murphy, NCC, Plan for
operational products 1240 Discussion 1300
End 1400 - 1530 Monthly seasonal climate
outlook meeting (6th floor)
2
Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESSSeasonal
Prediction System

• Oscar Alves, BMRC

3
POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System
2008
2007
2010
2009
2011
Hind-casts
Operational
POAMA-1.5
Products docs
Applications
POAMA-2
POAMA-3
4
Major improvements

• POAMA-1.5
• New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI)
  system
• Comprehensive hind-cast set (1980-2006, 10 member
  ensemble each month) - 3 members done
• Rainfall forecasts (direct statistical
  downscaling)
• Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts
• OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3
  years available)

• POAMA-2
• New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS)
• New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy
• Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional)

• POAMA-3
• New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM, ..)
• Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere)
• Greenhouse gases
• New ACCESS coupled assimilation system

5
Results

• POAMA-1.5B
• So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month
  from 1980-2005
• Real-time forecasts in next 2 months
• (Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with
  no ALI)

Summary of work of many from BMRC
6
NINO 3SSTA forecasts
Produced by Guomin Wang
7
Indian Ocean Dipole Model Index
Produced by Guomin Wang
8
POAMA15B 1982-2005 3 members mean Skill at
lead5 Dashed persistence
Produced by Guomin Wang
9
SST Anomaly Correlation
POAMA-1
POAMA-1.5
1 month
3 month
5 month
Produced by Guomin Wang
10
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
MAM forecasts Winner POAMA Loser SVD
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
11
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
SON Forecasts Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4) Loser
SVD-calib
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
12
1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
13
1997 vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts
Obs
1997
2002
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
14
Intra-Seasonal Forecasts

• Initialised with true state of ocean, land and
  atmosphere
• Stored daily data
• Can start looking at weekly time scales
• Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction

15
Skill over Australia as a function of lead time
(days) precipitation (by Debbie
Hudson) (1980-2001)
0.5
16

• Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram
• Forecasts starting 1st March 1997
• 50 day forecasts
• Light Blue - obs
• Other colours - ensembles
• Produced by Harun Rashid

17
Summary

• Significant improvement in SST skill levels
• Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ?
• Range of new products
• Seasonal and Weekly forecast
• Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon
• Available externally - openDAP server
• Exiting year ahead !!

18
Example Rainfall for days 10-20for forecasts
starting 1st Jan 2004

• Trial forecasts on openDAP server
• Single ensemble 2003-5