Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate prediction during 2000-2003 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate prediction during 2000-2003

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Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate prediction during 2000-2003. Jae-Kyung E. Schemm ... ftp://tgprd.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.clim_MR.hind ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate prediction during 2000-2003


1
Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate
prediction during 2000-2003
  • Jae-Kyung E. Schemm
  • Climate Prediction Center
  • NCEP/NWS/NOAA

2
Operational NCEP seasonal climate prediction
system(NCEP SFM)
  • Description of AGCM
  • Dynamics
  • Global spectral configuration in T62L28
  • Model physics
  • Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme
  • M.-D. Chou short wave radiation
  • M.-D. Chou long wave radiation
  • Original Slingo-type cloud
  • Tiedtke shallow convection
  • Hong and Pan non-local diffusion
  • Alpert, et al. gravity wave drag
  • OSU land hydrology model
  • Mean smoothed orography
  • Leith horizontal diffusion on pressure surface

3
NCEP seasonal climate prediction system
  • 2. Production Suite
  • For each month, 7-month prediction runs of 10
    member ensemble initialized in 1979 - 1999
    period.
  • Initial conditions at 0Z and 12Z of first 5 days
    of month.
  • Observed SST and climatological soil moisture as
    boundary conditions.
  • Model climatology and climatological probability
    distribution based on the 1979-1999 cases.
  • 7-month prediction runs of 20-member ensemble
    initialized at 0Z and 12Z of last 5-days of
    previous month and first 5-days of present month.
  • Forecast SST from ocean model used as BC.
  • Forecast anomaly determined with the model
    climatology -- model bias removed.

4
Development in 2002-2003
  • 1. Implementation of the seasonal prediction
    suite as part of the NWS operational production
    in December 2001.
  • Data access
  • ftp//tgprd.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.
    clim_MR.hind
  • ftp//tgprd.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.
    clim_MR.fcst
  • Additional ensemble runs with the constructed
    analog SST forecast.
  • 3. EMC started working on the next generation
    coupled model system for seasonal prediction -
    parallel climate test suite with the operational
    GFS GCM.
  • Ref. Websites
  • http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_forecast
  • http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/schemm/snfcst.html

5
Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast 2m
Temperature over US Region (2000-2003)
6
Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast
Precipitation over US Region (2000-2003)
7
Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast500 hPa
height PNA Region (2000-2003)
8
Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast 500 hPa
height NH Ext Region (2000-2003)
9
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10
  • Weakness of the current operational production
    suite
  • Model climatology and skill mask from hindcast
  • runs with observed SST.
  • Estimate potential predictability.
  • Hindcast experiments conducted with forecast SST
  • generated by the constructed analog method
  • (van den Dool and Barnston, 1995).

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12
Anomaly Correlation of Seasonal Precipitation
Fcst with Sep. ICsBCs with Obs SST (left) and
CA Fcst SST (right)
13
Anomaly Correlation of Seasonal 500 hPa Height
Fcst with Sep ICsBCs with Obs SST (left) and
CA Fcst SST (right)
14
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Summary
  • NCEP SFM seasonal predictions evaluated for
    2000-2003 in terms of 2m temperature and
    precipitation over the continental US, and 500hPa
    height over the NHE sector. All variables exhibit
    modest skill of 0.2 in anomaly correlation
    scores in average over the three year period.
  • Seasonal predictability is overestimated when it
    is based on GCM runs with observed SST as
    boundary condition. The anomaly correlation of
    winter season forecast was reduced considerably
    when forecast SST was utilized.
  • Impact less pronounced in surface temperature and
    precipitation over US. Further improvement in
    GCM is warranted to resolve the problem. EMC has
    started testing a fully coupled system with
    current operational GFS GCM in 2003.
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