Title: Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate prediction during 2000-2003
1Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate
prediction during 2000-2003
- Jae-Kyung E. Schemm
- Climate Prediction Center
- NCEP/NWS/NOAA
2Operational NCEP seasonal climate prediction
system(NCEP SFM)
- Description of AGCM
- Dynamics
- Global spectral configuration in T62L28
- Model physics
- Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme
- M.-D. Chou short wave radiation
- M.-D. Chou long wave radiation
- Original Slingo-type cloud
- Tiedtke shallow convection
- Hong and Pan non-local diffusion
- Alpert, et al. gravity wave drag
- OSU land hydrology model
- Mean smoothed orography
- Leith horizontal diffusion on pressure surface
3NCEP seasonal climate prediction system
- 2. Production Suite
- For each month, 7-month prediction runs of 10
member ensemble initialized in 1979 - 1999
period. - Initial conditions at 0Z and 12Z of first 5 days
of month. - Observed SST and climatological soil moisture as
boundary conditions. - Model climatology and climatological probability
distribution based on the 1979-1999 cases. - 7-month prediction runs of 20-member ensemble
initialized at 0Z and 12Z of last 5-days of
previous month and first 5-days of present month.
- Forecast SST from ocean model used as BC.
- Forecast anomaly determined with the model
climatology -- model bias removed.
4Development in 2002-2003
- 1. Implementation of the seasonal prediction
suite as part of the NWS operational production
in December 2001. - Data access
- ftp//tgprd.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.
clim_MR.hind - ftp//tgprd.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.
clim_MR.fcst - Additional ensemble runs with the constructed
analog SST forecast. - 3. EMC started working on the next generation
coupled model system for seasonal prediction -
parallel climate test suite with the operational
GFS GCM. - Ref. Websites
- http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_forecast
- http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/schemm/snfcst.html
5Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast 2m
Temperature over US Region (2000-2003)
6Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast
Precipitation over US Region (2000-2003)
7Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast500 hPa
height PNA Region (2000-2003)
8Anomaly Correlation of SFM Forecast 500 hPa
height NH Ext Region (2000-2003)
9(No Transcript)
10- Weakness of the current operational production
suite - Model climatology and skill mask from hindcast
- runs with observed SST.
- Estimate potential predictability.
- Hindcast experiments conducted with forecast SST
- generated by the constructed analog method
- (van den Dool and Barnston, 1995).
11(No Transcript)
12Anomaly Correlation of Seasonal Precipitation
Fcst with Sep. ICsBCs with Obs SST (left) and
CA Fcst SST (right)
13Anomaly Correlation of Seasonal 500 hPa Height
Fcst with Sep ICsBCs with Obs SST (left) and
CA Fcst SST (right)
14(No Transcript)
15(No Transcript)
16(No Transcript)
17(No Transcript)
18(No Transcript)
19Summary
- NCEP SFM seasonal predictions evaluated for
2000-2003 in terms of 2m temperature and
precipitation over the continental US, and 500hPa
height over the NHE sector. All variables exhibit
modest skill of 0.2 in anomaly correlation
scores in average over the three year period. - Seasonal predictability is overestimated when it
is based on GCM runs with observed SST as
boundary condition. The anomaly correlation of
winter season forecast was reduced considerably
when forecast SST was utilized. - Impact less pronounced in surface temperature and
precipitation over US. Further improvement in
GCM is warranted to resolve the problem. EMC has
started testing a fully coupled system with
current operational GFS GCM in 2003.