NSF STC Sustainable Futures Research Overview

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Midwestern Flood of 2008 and Impact on
Gulf Hypoxia Aaron Gwinnup, Craig Just and
Jerry Schnoor University of Iowa Living with
Floods UI Public Policy Center March 11, 2009
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Global Warming to increase severe storms, rainfall

• 6 more storms per decade
• Hartmut Aumann et al. (2008), Geophysical
  Research Letters, reported a 45 increase in the
  frequency of high clouds for every 1.8 oF
  increase in sea surface temperature using AIRS
  instrument on NASAs Aqua satellite
• Global rain rate is increasing at 1.5/decade
• Wentz et al. (2005)

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One of the clearest trends in the United States
observational record is an increasing frequency
and intensity of heavy precipitation events Over
the last century there was a 50 increase in the
frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6
mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.
this trend is statistically significant
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Cedar Rapids Data (Takle, 2009)
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
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Iowa Yields increasing even faster gt180 bu/ac
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Nutrient Yield Delivered to the Gulf of Mexico
Total Nitrogen
Total Phosphorus
Source Alexander et al., EST, 2008
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Iowa Stations of Interest
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Raccoon River at Van Meter
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NO3-N Concentration in the Raccoon River at Des
Moines
20.00
Annual Max
18.00
Annual Mean
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
NO3-N Concentration (mg/L)
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
Data provided by Chris Jones, Des Moines Water
Works
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Raccoon River Flow Nitrate-N Concentration in
2008
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Van Meter Station (Raccoon R, DA 3441 mi2)
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Van Meter - Log Q Vs. Log C
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Education and Outreach
User Community
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(No Transcript)
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WATERS Network (300 million proposal to NSF)
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Clear Creek IA High Freq Sampling
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Plug-and-play Hardware Hydrolab DS5X Data Sonde

• Measures chlorophyll a, conductivity,(NO3-),
  (PO43-), Diss Oxygen, pH, temp, turbidity
• Built-in sweeper helps minimize biofouling.
• Total cost 11,000

Hach Environmental www.hachenvironmental.com
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Clear Creek Nitrate-N Loading June 2008
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Mississippi River discharge (1000 cfs) at Tarbert
Landing, MS from 1930 to 20 July 2008 2
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Mississippi River waters meet Gulf waters July
2008
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Role of 2008 Flood on Gulf Hypoxia, NSF grant
Bottle nose dolphin at the mouth of Mississippi R.
UIs Aaron Gwinnup
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Crabs swim to the surface of the Gulf in search
of oxygen (depth here is 130)
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2008 Gulf Hypoxic Zone (Rabalais et al., 2008)

• 20,720 km2 or 8000 mi2 of seafloor off LA / TX
  coast
• Smaller than predicted record size of 8800 mi2
• Due primarily to Hurricane Dolly mixing the
  stratification and re-aerating bottom water on
  the West end of the zone
• Tied for 2nd largest area with 2001
• (since mapping began in 1985)

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Areal Time Series of Gulf Hypoxia, 1995-2008
(Rabalais, LUMCON)
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(No Transcript)
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Predicting Future Growth of Ethanol towards 15
billion gal
Millions of gallons of ethanol per year
8 million acres corn
Source D. Keeney, 2007
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Ethanol Production Facilities are mostly in the
Upper Mississippi River Basin
J. Ward, USGS, written commun.
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Lincolnway Energy Plant, 50 mgpy ethanol
18 million bushels of corn per year
200 million gallons water per year (4 gallons H2O
per gallon ethanol)
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Water Quality Fertilizer and Pesticide
Requirements for various energy crops (D.
Tilman, Science, 2006)
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Upper Mississippi N Yield Concentration (USGS)
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Upper Mississippi P Yield Concentration (USGS)
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Upper Mississippi TSS Yield Concentration (USGS)
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Cellulosic Ethanol (the next generation) will
provide 21 billion gal per yr (2007 Energy
Bill), but how?

• Biological Homogeneous feedstock
• Thermochemical Mixed feedstock

Slide courtesy of R. Cruse, ISU, 2007
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Cellulosic ethanol using corn fodder? Handling,
storage, transportation and soil erosion issues
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Mixed prairie grasses for cellulose give higher
yields w/ lower inputs than monocultures like
switch grass (Tilman, 2006)
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Woody Biomass like poplars could be utilized, too
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Conclusions

• The 2008 Midwestern Floods transported
  approximately 30 more nitrogen to the Gulf of
  Mexico than in an average year, thus exacerbating
  Gulf Hypoxia
• Precipitation in the Midwest is increasing and
  there is some evidence that it falls in bigger
  storm events
• High frequency monitoring, modeling and
  forecasting is needed to provide better estimates
  of the loadings and better scientific
  understanding of the physical phenomena and
  solutions (e.g., targeting BMPs)

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Acknowledgements

• National Science Foundation, NSF SGER Research
  Grant, Role of Midwestern Floods in Gulf
  Hypoxia
• Chris Jones, Des Moines Water Works
• Gene Takle, Iowa State University
• Eugene Turner, Louisiana State University
• Nancy Rabalais, Louisiana Universities Marine
  Consortium
• Rick Cruse and Dennis Keeney, ISU
• J.V. Loperfido, UI graduate student