Lecture 8: War And Political Participation

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Lecture 8 War And Political Participation
1. War And Regime Type A Complex Relationship 2.
War And Early Legislatures 3. War And The Rise Of
The Absolute Monarch 4. War And The Fall Of The
Absolute Monarch 5. Modern War And Political
Rights 6. Is Regime Type Correlated With Victory?
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War And The Early Legislatures
1. Weak Position Of Crown Need Taxes And
Consensus 2. Approval Of The High Court Or
Parliament 3. MembersNobles, Clergy, (later)
Cities, (rarely) Peasants 4. French Estates
General German Diet English Parliament And
Spanish Cortes 5. Purpose Of Early Estates a)
Give Nobles, Clerics Burgers a Voice b)
Facilitate Construction Of Consensus For War c)
Exchange Political Rights For Financial
Support d) Creates Sense Of National Identity
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Stage II The Rise Of The Absolute Monarch

• Increasing Power Of Crown And Demands For
  Revenue
• Lead To Restriction Of Political Rights
• Brandenburg-Prussia The Authoritarian Model
• Thirty Years War (1618-48) Elector Taxes w/o
  Permission
• Northern War (1655-60) Elector Uses Army Against
  Estates
• Franco-Prussian War (1672) Diet becomes
  Ceremonial

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Stage II The Rise Of The Absolute Monarch

• France The Reversal Model
• Estate System Exists From 1200s
• 1439 The Taille Does Not Expire at End of the
  Year
• Thirty Years War Taxation without Authorization
• Estates Loses Power of the Purse
• 1789 The French Revolution
• Why Didnt France Follow The Prussian Path?
• a) Much Richer Than Prussia
• b) Regional Estates Continue Throughout Period
• c) Nobles And Peasants More Independent
• d) No Military Crisis At Time

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Stage II The Rise Of The Absolute Monarch

• England The Liberal Model
• Magna Carta imposed in 1215
• 1295 First Parliament for War Taxes
• 1688 The Glorious Revolution
• Why Didnt England Suffer the Same Fate as
  Prussia?
• a) Geographically Isolated
• b) Strong Fear Of Standing Armies
• c) Wealth And Advanced Capital Markets

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Stage III The Fall Of The Absolute Monarch

• Rising Costs Of War And Sizes Of Armies Creates
• A Dilemma For Monarchs
• Trade Off Total Control Versus Maximizing Power
• Bureaucracies Versus Kings
• Generals Versus Kings
• The People Versus The King
• -- Need For Revenue and Bodies
• -- Return to Reciprocal Relations

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Modern War And Political Rights

• Garrison State School

• Extraction School

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Wars And The Expansion Of States
Permanent Impact of Increased Spending
STEP FUNCTION
Temporary Impact of Increased Spending
DECAY FUNCTION
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Modern War And The ExpansionOf Political Rights

• Italy During The Italian-Turkish War
  (1911-1912)
• Soviet Union During World War II (1941-1945)
• United Kingdom During World War I (1914-1918)
• Neutral Sweden During World War I (1914-1918)

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Expansion of Rights in Italy

• Fully Unified in 1870 Senate Chamber of
  Deputies
• Only 2.4 Have Right to Vote
• By 1910, only 6.9 have the Right to Vote
• Italian-Turkish War 1911-12
• Expansion of Suffrage
• -- Literate Males over 21
• -- Males with Service in Military
• -- Illiterate Males over 30

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Expansion of Rights in Italy
Italian Prime Minister Giovanni Giolitti The
Most Hidebound Conservative Will Admit It Is
Impossible To Ask Such Sacrifices From A People
And At The Same Time Attempt To Deny Them The
Right Of Participating In Their Countrys Public
Life.
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Expansion of Rights In The Soviet Union

• Does Expansion Occur Within Autocratic Regimes?
• Suffrage is Not a Useful Measure
• Membership in the Communist Party

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Expansion of Rights In The Soviet Union
Communist Party Membership (Millions) -----------
-- 3.9 5.7
Population (Millions) -------- 190 170
Percent Of Population ----------- 2.1 3.4
Year -------- 1941 1945
SOURCE KAPLAN (1985).
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My Current Research Project

• Twenty-Four European States, 1900-1955
• Individual Rights
• I) Right to Hold Office
• II) Right to Form Political Parties
• III) Right to Vote in National Elections
• IV) Freedom of Expression
• Collective Rights
• I. Free and Fair Elections
• II. Legislative Power Over the Executive
• III. Rule of Law
• IV. Military Intervention in Society

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Bivariate Results
Free and Fair
Elections -------------------
----------------------- Decreased No Increased
Rights Change Rights -------- ------- -------- P
eacetime 2 97 1 Wartime 8 89 3 Just
After War 4 88 8 N1141 Chi Square
(4)47.0 Probability .000 Numbers may not sum
to 100 due to rounding.
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Time Series Results
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Is Regime Type Correlated With Victory?

• Traditional Argument Autocracies Better At
  Fighting Wars
• If Autocracies Are Better, Would This Imply A
  More
• Autocratic System In The Long Run?
• Lake (1992) Argues Democracies Are Better At War
• 1) Supported By Broader Segment Of Population
• 2) Fewer Economic Distortions So Richer
  Societies
• 3) More Likely To Form Overwhelming Coalitions

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Is Regime Type Correlated With Victory?
Lakes Finding
Autocracy 42 (57) 32 (43) ----------- 74 (100)
Democracy 9 (19) 38 (81) ----------- 47 (100)
Total 51 70 ----- 121
Lose Win --------- Totals
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Why Do Democracies Tend To Win?The Stam/Reiter
Rebuttal
Stam And Reiter (1996) Lake Right For The Wrong
Reasons - Democratic Targets Dont Win Much -
Democratic Initiators Always Win - Conclusion
Democracies Pick Fights They Can Win
Non- Democracy 40-28 (59) 29-54
(35) ----------- 69-82 (46)
Democracy 15-1 (94) 10-7 (59) ----------- 25-8
(78)
Total 55-29 (65) 39-61 (39) ----- 92-90 (51)
Initiator Target --------- Totals
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Conclusions

• War lead to absolutism and then undermined it
• War can decrease political rights
• Mobilization can increase political rights
• Democracies tend to win wars they start