IDEAS Integrated Dynamic Environmental Assessment System

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IDEASIntegrated Dynamic Environmental Assessment
System
Goal Helping learning about catchments A) Tool
to help B) Process to use the tool
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Evoland Framework
Evaluative Models
Data Sources
Fish Abundance/Distributions
Parcels (IDUs)
Floodplain Habitat
Policy Set(s)
Small-Stream Macroinvertabrates
Agent Descriptors
Upslope Wildlife Habitat
Autonomous Process Models
Evoland
Parcel Market Values
Population Growth
Agricultural Land Supply
Urban Expansion
Forest Land Supply
Vegetative Succession
Residential Land Supply
Land Value
Conservation Set-Asides
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Natural Present Intensive land use scenarios
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Natural Present Intensive land use scenarios
BMPS
Now extended to include Best Management
Practices A) BMP for present scenario B) BMP
for intensive scenario
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Sediment analysis

• Sediment modelling spatial extent of Motueka
  River sediment influence

A proxy for other conservative particles.
eg. E. coli
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Analysis of Data

• Clear relationship of observed surface
  chlorophyll concentration to estimated monthly
  Nitrogen load seen in data (r20.5).

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Modelling results

Models show increased riverine nutrients
stimulate algal production in the surface waters
during summer months.
Depth
Time (1 year)

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Social Impact Example
Aquaculture production
Application to future nutrient scenarios allows
prediction of primary production available to
filter-feeding aquaculture.
Good News?
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Production Modelling

• Maybe, but .
• Mussel Farm production models do not show
  associated large increases in production due to
  overloading and sediment impacts.
• 23,000 -gt 26,000 Tons for existing AMAs1
• although wider ecosystem may benefit from
  extra food.

1. Output from farm-scale model, www.farmscale.org
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Demonstrating the PotentialThe Effects of
Nitrogen on Mussel Production in Tasman Bay
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Natural Present Intensive land use scenarios
BMPS
Now extended to include Best Management
Practices A) BMP for present scenario B) BMP
for intensive scenario
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Triple Bottom Line Indicators

• TBL indicators used
• Social
• Agricultural job numbers
• Marine job numbers
• Economic
• Gross output (/year)
• Gross margin land ocean (/year)

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Triple Bottom Line Indicators

• TBL indicators used
• Environmental
• Nitrogen load leaving catchment (kg/year)
• Nitrogen in ocean (kg/year)
• Low flow water take (m3/s)
• Area of natural ecosystems (ha)
• Carbon storage rate (tonnes/year)
• Suspended sediment yield (tonnes/year)

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Triple Bottom Line Indicators

• What are the triple bottom line indicators that
  you would want to see for issues?
• Social
• Environmental
• Economic