Kentucky GAP:

1
Kentucky GAP Geographic Area and Minimum
Habitat Thresholds in Relation to Accuracy
Assessment of Predicted Vertebrate Distributions
Terry L. Derting Adam Smith Howard Whiteman
2
Kentucky GAP Geographic Area and Minimum
Habitat Thresholds in Relation to Accuracy
Assessment of Predicted Vertebrate Distributions
Terry L. Derting Adam Smith Howard Whiteman
3
Kentucky GAP Geographic Area and Minimum
Habitat Thresholds in Relation to Accuracy
Assessment of Predicted Vertebrate Distributions
Terry L. Derting Adam Smith Howard Whiteman
4
Species Modeled
Reptiles - 51 Amphibians - 52 Mammals -
63 Breeding Birds - 152 Wintering Birds - 111
5
Input Layers for Models
KY-GAP Land Cover Data
Digital Elevation Model
NWI Data
6
Species Distribution Maps
Marginal Potentially suitable Potentially
suitable-Aquatic No Data
Gray fox
Tiger salamander
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Modeling of Edge Habitat
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Accuracy Analysis
Methods of Evaluation

1. Validation Area Assessment (803 262,415 ha)

9
Omission error species not predicted to occur in
area where it had been recorded Commission
error species predicted to occur in area where
it had not been recorded Match species
occurrence was predicted as recorded
10
Methods of Evaluation

1. Validation Area Assessment (803
   262,415 ha)
2. Physiographic Province Assessment (204,400
   2,674,000 ha)

Mississippi Alluvial Basin Mississippi
Embayment Shawnee Hills Mississippian
Plateaus Knobs Bluegrass Appalachian
Plateaus Cumberland Mountains
Species List
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Methods of Evaluation

1. Validation Area Assessment
2. Physiographic Province Assessment
3. Statewide Assessment

DATABASES DATABASES
KY Fish and Wildlife Information Service KY State Nature Preserve Commission
KY Woodrat Locator Ferner Pine Mountain
KY Herps Coal Mine Matches
Small Mammals
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CHARACTERISTICS OF LOCATIONAL RECORDS
Taxonomic Group Species Represented
Amphibians 86.5
Reptiles 69.2
Mammals 95.2
Birds (breeding) 86.8
Birds (wintering) 81.1
13
CHARACTERISTICS OF LOCATIONAL RECORDS
Taxonomic Group Species Represented
Amphibians 86.5
Reptiles 69.2
Mammals 95.2
Birds (breeding) 86.8
Birds (wintering) 81.1
14
Predicted distributions compared with species
records from database
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Results Assessment of Validation Areas
80
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Results Assessment of Physiographic Provinces
80
17
Results Statewide Accuracy Assessment
80
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Results Statewide Accuracy Assessment ( ?
5 records/species)
100
80
Percent
50
0
Omission
Match
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Error rates Aquatic vs. Terrestrial (? 10
records/species)
n16
n3
n23
n8
P0.014
Plt0.0001
t-test, Mann-Whitney U test
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Lessons Learned Using Three Levels of Geographic
Area for Accuracy Assessment

• Use of species lists from very large geographic
  areas (e.g., provinces) was associated with an
  exaggerated degree of accuracy.

• Comparison of accuracy values using multiple
  validation areas and statewide locational records
  facilitates identification of model strengths and
  weaknesses.

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Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons
Mammoth Cave National Park
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Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons
1 Threshold
? habitat ? 1 total area
1
Vulpes vulpes
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Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons
10 Threshold
? habitat ? 10
Vulpes vulpes
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Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons
25 Threshold
Vulpes vulpes
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To what extent do agreement rates decrease as the
minimum habitat threshold is increased?
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Minimum Habitat Thresholds for All Groups
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a
a
a
b
b
b
c
c
Reptiles
Amphibians
a
b
a
b
b
b
c
d
Mammals
Breeding Birds
ANOVA, P lt 0.05
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Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons
Pipistrellus subflavus
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Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons
Pipistrellus subflavus
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Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons
Pipistrellus subflavus
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Recommendation
Use of minimum habitat thresholds enhanced
biological validity of accuracy assessments
32
Acknowledgements
National GAP (USGS) Kentucky Department of Fish
and Wildlife Resources
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Acknowledgements
Tom Kind Mark Drew
Geoff Ghitter Mike Busby
Keith Wethington David Vichitbandha Dave Frederick
Matt Cole Kelly Somerlot
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Acknowledgements
KY Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources
Jeff Sole
Laura Burford Rocky Pritchert
Steve Thomas Sunni Lawless
Tim Slone Traci
Wethington Jason Paxico
Roy Grimes KY State Nature Preserves
Commission Brainard
Palmer-Ball
Morehead University Les Meade Eastern KY
University Chuck Elliott Gary Ritchison
Paul Cupp Murray State University Duke Wilder
Ed Zimmerer Tom Timmons
University of Cincinnati Guy Cameron Austin
Peay State Univ. Floyd Scott

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Acknowledgements
Daniel Boone National Forest
John MacGregor Lynda
Perry East KY Power Co. Jeff Hohman
University of Kentucky Mike Lacki
David Maehr Thomas Barnes EcoTech
Hal Bryan