Grupo de Estudos Climticos da USP: Uma viso geral

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Grupo de Estudos Climáticos da USP Uma visão
geral
Tércio Ambrizzi e Rosmeri P. Rocha Departamento
de Ciëncias Atmosféricas - USP

Seminario Precipitación y Fenomenos
Meteorológicos Asociados en IberoAmérica Ourense,
8 a 10 de Setembro de 2008

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Conceptual model of the SALLJ physical
environment during the wet season (Marengo et al.
2004 - JC)
Guilherme Martins Doutorando - OL
Gyrlene Silva Doutoranda JBN ODP
Anita Drumond Pos-Doc - FU
Helber Gomes Doutorando - OL
Meiry Sakamoto Doutoranda - SCM
Luis Gozzo MSc O/A - C
João Pinto MSc Ener-C
Clara Iwabe Doutoranda - CSec
Michele Reboita Pos-doc - ciclones
Luis Kruger MSc C-P/F
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ALGUNS PROJETOS EM QUE O GrEC ESTÁ ENVOLVIDO

• A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change
  Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin
  (CLARIS LPB) - The CLARIS LPB Project aims at
  predicting the regional climate change impacts on
  La Plata Basin (LPB) in South America, and at
  designing adaptation strategies for land-use,
  agriculture, rural development, hydropower
  production, river transportation, water resources
  and ecological systems in wetlands.
• PROBIO/CREAS (Regional Climate Change Scenarios
  for South America) the objectives of this
  project are to develop a broad intercomparison of
  downscaled circulation, rainfall and temperature
  scenarios for South America for present and
  future climate change scenarios.
• EUROBRISA - A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for
  improving South American seasonal forecasts

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BASIC MOTIVATION
Coelho (2005) PhD work on forecast calibration
and combination
Empirical Model Coelho et al (2006)
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The EUROBRISA Projectkey Idea To improve
seasonal forecasts in S. Americaa region where
there is seasonal forecast skill and useful
value.
http//www.cptec.inpe.br/caio/EUROBRISA/index.htm
l

• AIMS
• Strengthen collaboration and promote exchange of
  expertise and information between European and S.
  American seasonal forecasters
• Produce improved well-calibrated real-time
  probabilistic seasonal forecasts for South
  America
• Develop real-time forecast products for
  non-profitable governmental use (e.g. reservoir
  management, hydropower production, and
  agriculture)

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Planned activities
Climate prediction research and development

• Produce probabilistic forecasts of precip. and
  temp. with empirical and dynamical coupled models
  
• Deliver objectively combined (dynamical
  empirical) well-calibrated forecasts
• Compare skill of empirical, dynamical and
  combined forecasts using deterministic and
  probabilistic measures
• Dynamical and statistical downscaling
• Seasonal predictability studies

Impacts (collaborative work with users)

• Hydrology Downscaling of seasonal forecasts for
  river flow predictions and use in hydrological
  models
• Agriculture Research on the use of seasonal
  forecasts in agricultural activities Downscaling
  of seasonal forecasts for use in crop models

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EUROBRISA multi-model ensemble system

• 4 coupled global circulation models 1 empirical
  model

Empirical model Predictor Atlantic and Pacific
SST Predictands Precipitation and temperature
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Correlation maps DJF rainfall anomalies
DEMETER Multi-model ()
Empirical
Integrated
ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMO (1959-2001), I.C.
November

• Comparable level of determinist skill
• Better skill in tropical and southeastern South
  America

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Mean Anomaly Correlation Coefficient
Empirical
Multi-model
Integrated
Most skill in ENSO years and forecast
assimilation can improve skill
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EUROBRISA downscaling with RegCM3

• COMPARISON BETWEEN CPTEC AND RegCM3 SEASONAL
  FORECASTS AND CLIMATOLOGY
• RegCM3 was initialized with CPTEC SEASONAL MODEL
  from JJA/2005 up to ASO/2007

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RegCM3 MODEL CONFIGURATION
(Machado 2008)
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Topography, Domain and 8 sub-regions where the 3
months forecast from RegCM3 where compared with
the CPTEC seasonal forecast model
(Machado 2008)
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E -0,73 r 0,08 E -2,89 r 0,76
E 0,59 r 0,84 E 0,69 r 0,87
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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E 0,67 r 0,94 E 0,63 r 0,96
E -5,74 r 0,60 E -2,02 r 0,42
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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E -0,05 r 0,73 E 0,27 r 0,53
E -14,8 r 0,69 E -27,7 r 0,10
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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AMZ
NDE
MGS
SDE
SUL
E 0,77 r 0,91 E 0,77 r 0,91
E -6,5 r 0,46 E -7,7 r 0,55
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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AMN
AML
AMZ
AMS
NDE
MGS
SDE
SUL
E -0,05 r 0,30 E -2,14 r 0,90
E -1,86 r 0,64 E 0,62 r 0,84
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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AMN
AML
AMZ
AMS
NDE
MGS
SDE
SUL
E 0,33 r 0,85 E 0,56 r 0,80
E 0,08 r 0,67 E -0,44 r 0,64
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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AMN
AML
AMZ
AMS
NDE
MGS
SDE
SUL
E 0,74 r 0,92 E 0,75 r 0,91
E 0,57 r 0,89 E -0,10 r 0,85
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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AMN
AML
AMZ
AMS
NDE
MGS
SDE
SUL
E 0,74 r 0,95 E 0,86 r 0,94
E -0,26 r 0,64 E 0,13 r 0,63
2005 2006
2007
2005 2006
2007
(Machado 2008)
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CREAS- Regional Climate Change Scenarios for S.
America-Strategy
Global IPCC models (HadCM3)
Future scenarios IPCC A2, B2
Baseline 1961-90
Models from IPCC HadAM3P
Maps of climate change A2, B2 minus baseline,
2071-2100 and other time slices
Baseline regional models 1961-90
Modelos regionais
Downscaling
Maps of climate change A2, B2 for 2071-2100, and
other time slices (South America, countries, and
other regions)
Eta/CPTEC 40 km
RegCM3/USP 50 km
HadRM3/PRECIS 50 km
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CREAS- Regional Climate Change Scenarios for S.
America-Strategy
Regional climate change scenarios A2, B2,
2071-2100 and other time slices, 3 regional
models -Science -Training and capacity building

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Média sazonal A2 DJF anomalias de precipitação
(mm/dia) (2071-2085)-(1961-90)
HadRM3P (PRECIS)
MAM
DJF
JJA
SON
(Ambrizzi et al 2007)
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Média sazonal DJF A2 anomalias de temperatura
(oC) (2071-2085)-(1961-90)
HadRM3P
(Ambrizzi et al 2007)
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(Ambrizzi et al 2007)
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SUL
PRECIS
SUL
(Ambrizzi et al 2007)
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noites frias
noites quentes
Tendências de temperatura simulada pelo modelo
regional Precis (2071-2100)
dias quentes
dias frios
(Marengo et al 2007)
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Tendências de precipitação simulada pelo modelo
regional Precis (2071-2100)
(Marengo et al 2007)
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ÍNDICE DE TEMPERATURA MÍNIMA NOITES QUENTES
VALIDAÇÃO DA
REANÁLISE DO NCEP/NCAR
(Fonte Vincent et al., 2005)
(Fonte CPTEC)
(Dufek, Ambrizzi e Rocha 2008)
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ÍNDICE DE TEMPERATURA MÍNIMA NOITES FRIAS
VALIDAÇÃO DA
REANÁLISE DO NCEP/NCAR
??
(Fonte Vincent et al., 2005)
??
(Fonte CPTEC)
(Dufek, Ambrizzi e Rocha 2008)
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GRUPO DE ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS
CLIMATE STUDIES GROUP
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION GRACIAS POR SU
ATENCIÓN