AIAA Non Deterministic Approaches (NDA)

1
AIAA Non Deterministic Approaches (NDA)

• Proposal to create the
• AIAA NDA Technical Committee
• to
• AIAA New Initiatives Subcommittee
• 9 January 2007
• Prepared by Ben Thacker, Chair NDA Working Group,
  bthacker_at_swri.org, 210/522-3896

2
Need for an NDA Technical Committee

• NDA Working Group in active existence since 2004
• Over 30 members
• Operating according to TC guidelines
• 7 successful NDA forums, 1 successful NDA
  conference
• Non-deterministic or probabilistic methods now
  recognized in other societies
• SAE, ASME, ASCE, SEM, and ASQ
• NDA Conference requires TC-level support to
  ensure enduring stream of high quality leadership

3
What is NDA?

• Non-Deterministic Approaches are methods,
  philosophies and approaches that seek to address
  the effect of inherent and systematic
  uncertainties in engineered systems.
• NDA is rapidly gaining ground as preferred
  methods for analysis and design with potentially
  high payoffs (cost, safety, etc.) in
  aeronautical, aerospace, and other many other
  related applications.
• NDA is currently part of the Structures TC

4
AIAA NDA When, Why and How?

• 1st NDA Forum at 40th SDM in 1999 (St Louis, MO)
• Bring together NDA related work throughout the
  aerospace community
• Expose critical NDA issues
• Provide direction for future NDA research

5
Background

• Successfully conducted 7 consecutive NDA Forums
  (99-05) and one full conference (06)
• NDA Conference approved in 2006
• Called the 8th NDA Conference to reflect our 7
  previous forums
• 9th NDA Conference planned for 2007 in Waikiki,
  Hawaii
• 52 accepted abstracts organized into 9 sessions

6
NDA-WG Scope

• The NDA Working Group supports AIAA technical
  activities that advance the relevant art, science
  and cross-cutting technologies required for the
  successful application of non-deterministic
  approaches to aerospace systems.

7
NDA Working GroupGoals

1. Organize NDA Conference in support of the SDM
2. Ensure quality leadership for NDA Conference
3. Serve as the focal point for NDA technologies in
   AIAA
4. Coordinate AIAA activities on NDA with other
   organizations
5. Coordinate NDA activities with other AIAA
   technical committees
6. Transfer NDA technology to AIAA membership

8
NDA-WG Leadership

• Chair Ben Thacker (rotate out 4/07)
• Vice Chair Chris Pettit (rotate in 4/07)
• Secretary Jason Pepin
• Liaisons
• MDO Romero
• ASA Wallace
• ASCE Mahadevan
• Structures TC Hilton
• ASME Pepin/Romero
• SAE Ghiocel
• Adaptive Structures TC Chamis

9
NDA Conference Leadership
Year General Chair Technical Chair
2008, TBD Sankaran Mahadevan TBD
2007, Hawaii Mike Enright Sankaran Mahadevan
2006, Newport Chris Pettit Mike Enright
2005, Austin Levon Minnetyan Chris Pettit
2004, Palm Springs Christos Chamis Levon Minnetyan
2003, Norfolk Christos Chamis Levon Minnetyan
2002, Denver Christos Chamis Levon Minnetyan
2001, Seattle Suren Singhal Christos Chamis
2000, Atlanta Suren Singhal Christos Chamis
1999, St Louis Suren Singhal Christos Chamis
10
Sustained Performance of the NDA Conference
No. of Accepted Papers
Year
11
2004 NDA Forum Session Titles

• Sampling Methods
• Code Verification
• Response Surface Methods
• Model Validation
• Dynamic Systems
• Flight Applications
• Materials and Design Safety Factors
• Reliability-Based Design Optimization
• Fatigue and Fracture

12
Current Roster 31 Members
13
NDA-WG Makeup
14
NDA-WG Bulletin Board
15
Why Create an NDA TC?

• Growing interest
• Place at the table
• Natural evolution of NDA activities in AIAA
• As a technology, NDA is different from yet
  integral to other key SDM TCs

• Structures
• Materials
• Structural Dynamics
• MDO
• Survivability
• Adaptive Structures

NDA serves a unique purpose
16
Support

• Betty Guillie emailed proposal to all AIAA TC
  chairs on 12/5/2006

Summary of Responses
TC For Against Undecided
Ground Test ?
Space Operations and Support ?
Solid Rockets ?
Management ?
Survivability ?
Meshing, Visualization, and Computational Environments ?
Aircraft Operations ?
Balloons ?
Fluid Dynamics ? ?
Structures ?
17
Support, contd

• Mark Melanson, Ground Test TC
• No objections or known overlap
• Mike Mattis, Space Operations and Support
• The SOSTC has no scope issues and believes that
  Non-Deterministic Approaches would be a good
  addition to the Technical Committees

18
Support, contd

• I-Shih, Solid Rockets
• There is no objection from Solid Rockets
  Technical Committee to creating a new NDA
  Technical Committee
• J. Stephen Rottler, Management
• There is no overlap between the proposed NDA TC
  and the TCM
• Ron Dexter, Survivability
• I reviewed your proposal and do not see any
  conflicts or overlap

19
Support, contd

• John Chawner, Meshing, Visualization, and
  Computational Environments
• MVCE - in the persons of John Chawner (chair) and
  John Dannenhoffer (vice chair) is OK with
  formation of the NDA TC
• Brian Baxley, Aircraft Operations
• there does not appear to be any scope overlap of
  the proposed TC with the Aircraft Operations TC.

20
Support, contd

• Henry Cathey, Balloon Systems
• On the whole, the responses were very positive
• One member commented
• "It seems to me that the use of NDA to obtain a
  result is of interest to many disciplines. 
  However, should the method itself be represented
  in AIAA is a TC?  The safety folks use this to
  create flight rule for our balloons which is
  important.  But is the probability theory itself
  in need of representation?  I think not."
• My response to member (via Cathey) on 12/15/06
• Non-deterministic Approaches (NDA) are much more
  than probability theory. NDA encompass the field
  we call "uncertainty quantification" and it
  includes techniques such as probability theory,
  fuzzy sets, possibility theory, evidence theory,
  convex models, info-gap theory, etc. Even if NDA
  meant only probability theory, application of
  probability theory to structural/mechanical/therma
  l problems requires efficient and accurate
  algorithms and analysis strategies. Thus, applied
  probability theory itself is still a very active
  area of research and development, and will
  continue to be as we ask it to solve ever
  increasingly challenging problems.
• The proposed NDA TC is technology oriented as
  opposed to application oriented, which may be
  fueling the confusion. Many of our members and
  conference attendees are engineers working at
  aerospace companies who are faced with problems
  that can only be solved using NDA. Others are
  methods developers. Solutions to current and
  challenging reliability problems go way beyond
  what's available in standard probability
  textbooks, and that's precisely where NDA are
  required. Our TC brings these two groups
  together, as well as supports many of the other
  areas within AIAA (structures, materials,
  dynamics, etc.)
• There could be a viewpoint issue/problem here as
  well. If you are only an occasional user of basic
  probability theory, you may not be aware of the
  broad and rapidly growing field of NDA driven by
  the needs of industry. I'm not sure if this is
  the case here, but I have run into before.

21
Support, contd

• Thomas Beutner (chair) Peter Hartwich,
  (chair-elect), Fluid Dynamics
• Non-deterministic are relevant to structures, to
  fluids, to thermal sciences. Thus, there's
  inherent overlap with established TCs
• If the goal of this TC is to sponsor a conference
  that will collocate with structures, then is a
  new TC needed?
• AIAA's total membership is stable if not
  decaying. In this general environment, is it
  advisable that AIAA keeps creating new TCs?
• Hartwich In summary, my vote is against
  establishing an NDATC.
• Beutner I suggest tabling the decision on a new
  TC for now and utilizing the existing TC
  structure to advance NDA and create a sustainable
  annual or biennial conference

22
Support, contd

• Mary Mahler, Structures
• With full consensus from the membership and
  friends of the AIAA Structures Technical
  Committee, it is my pleasure to announce that the
  Structures TC fully endorses the formation of the
  Non-Deterministic Approaches Technical Committee
  for AIAA. I have talked to the senior membership
  and there is total agreement that the NDA Working
  Group had added a valuable aspect to the
  aerospace industry.  It is a technology that has
  come into its own right and should be a technical
  committee for AIAA.  With this area of interest
  only growing in interest and research and
  practice in production, the group that has
  several senior members and is under the current
  leadership of Dr. Ben Thacker should be a
  technical committee of AIAA. The members of the
  Structures TC had no reservations of this
  endorsement. If there are any questions or
  further details to this endorsement, please feel
  free to contact me.  We look forward to working
  with Ben and the soon-to-be NDA TC in the future.

23
Recommendation

• Establish the NDA Technical Committee