Program Steering Committee

1
Recent Economic Performance and Prospects for
2003-2004
Presented By Romulo L. Neri Secretary of
Socio-Economic Planning
Year-End 2003 Media Briefing Five Storey
Building, BSP Complex December 22, 2003
2
Outline of Presentation

• Recent Performance
• Outlook for 2003-2004

3
Economic Performance(Growth rates, in percent)
4
Asian GDP(Q3 2003, growth rate in )
5
Major Industries
(Growth rates, in percent)
6
Agriculture, Fishery Forestry(Growth rates, in
percent)
7
Industry(Growth rates, in percent)
8
Gainers in Manufacturing (Growth rates, in
percent)
9
Losers in Manufacturing (Growth rates, in
percent)
10
Services(Growth rates, in percent)
11
Demand
(Growth rates, in percent)
12
Capital Formation(Growth rates, in percent)
13
Durable Equipment(Growth rates, in percent)
14
II. Outlook for 2003-2004
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2003-2004 Macroeconomic Environment
As of June 12, 2003 DBCC meeting
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Macroeconomic Conditions Assumptions

• Economic fundamentals supportive of stable
  macroeconomic environment, although risks remain
• Higher than expected uptick in world oil prices
• Uncertainty from change in leadership, but this
  should increasingly clear as platforms are
  revealed
• Pick up in world economic growth
• Normal weather conditions
• Boost from election spending in first half

17
WEO Forecasts

• Stronger growth will
• Boost exports
• Create higher demand for OFW

18
Early Indicators for Q4 2003
As per DOF press releases dated Oct. 20 Nov. 19
19
Early Indicators for Q4 2003
20
Early Indicators for Q4 2003
21
2003-04 Growth Forecast
22
Growth Forecasts Supply Side
23
Growth Forecasts Supply Side
24
Growth Forecasts Demand Side
25
Thank you.