Central Statistical Office of Poland

1
Central Statistical Office of Poland

• Composite indicators in the business tendency
  surveys
• Practice of Central Statistical Office of Poland
• and European Commission
• Magdalena Swiecka, Katarzyna Walkowska, Izabella
  Zagozdzinska

2
Aim of the paper

• Comparison of CSO and European Commission
  composite indicators,
• Causes of differences in values of composite
  indicators,
• CSO indicators or EU indicators?

3
Indicators

• Simple indicators - balances of replies
• (difference between weighted percentages of
  positive and negative replies),
• Composite indicators,
• Synthetic indicators.

4
CSO general climate indicator

• general climate indicator
• (present expected
• economic situation of enterprise) / 2

5
European Commission composite indicator

• Manufacturing industry
• current order books, level of stocks, forecasted
  production,
• Construction
• current order books, forecasted employment,
• Retail trade
• past and future situation of the enterprise (or
  sale), present level of stocks.

6
Seasonal adjustment

• CSO seasonal adjustment of composite indicators
  X-11 ARIMA (SAS) / TRAMO/SEATS (Demetra),
• European Commission seasonal adjustment of
  components of composite indicators Dainties.

7
Manufacturing industry

• survey since June 1992,
• section D (without 37) according to NACE,
• size classes 10 and more employed persons,
• sample 3500 units.

8
CSO and EC composite indicators
9
Order books
10
Confidence indicator and its components
11
General climate and its components
12
Manufacturing industry - summary

• CSO general climate indicator is on higher level
  than EC confidence indicator,
• Difference between assessments of order books and
  general economic situation of the enterprise,
• Influence of level of stocks and future
  production less significant.

13
Construction

• survey since July 1993,
• section F division 45 (without 45.5) according to
  NACE,
• size classes 10 and more employed persons,
• sample 3500 units.

14
CSO and EC composite indicators
15
Order books
16
Confidence indicator and its components
17
General climate and its components
18
Construction - summary

• CSO general climate indicator is on higher level
  than EC confidence indicator,
• Difference between assessments of order books and
  general economic situation of the enterprise,
• Prognostic indicator concerning employment.

19
Retail trade

• survey since October 1993,
• groups of divisions of section F according to
  NACE,
• sample 5000 units.

20
CSO and EC composite indicators
21
Sale / general situation
22
Confidence indicator and its components
23
General climate and its components
24
Retail trade - summary

• CSO general climate indicator is on lower level
  than EC confidence indicator,
• Difference caused by level of stocks.

25
Summary

• manufacturing industry
• very pessimistic assessment of order books,
• construction
• pessimistic assessment of order books,
• negative expectations on employment, below
  assessments of general situation of the
  enterprise,
• retail trade
• entrepreneurs limit their stocks,
• improvement of general situation - not
  reflected by rise of stocks.

26
Summary

• significant differences in levels of composite
  indicators in manufacturing industry and
  construction,
• CSO composite indicators seem to reflect better
  present situation of Polish enterprises,
• further works on choice of the best composite
  indicators,
• EU composite indicators shorter for manufacturing
  industry and construction.

27

• Thank you for your attention