Australia's labour market and its challenges

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Australias Labour Market and its Challenges
Ivan Neville Labour Supply and Skills
BranchDepartment of Education, Employment and
Workplace Relations20 March 2009
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Labour Market Conditions

• Labour market conditions remain relatively
  strong
• - Unemployment rate 5.2
• - Employment rate 72.9
• Participation rate 65.5
• Educational Attainment
• Year 12 or higher 67.3 (compared with 65.9 in
  May 1998)

Source ABS Labour Force Survey 12 month average
January 2009, Education and Work Survey May 2008
CAT. No. 6227
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Groups at High Risk of Unemployment

• Teenage Full-Time Unemployment Rate 23.9
  
  
• - Teenage full-time unemployment to
  population
• ratio
  4.8
• Indigenous Unemployment Rate
  14.0
• Indigenous Employment Rate
  50.3
• Australian Employment Rate
  72.4
• Some regions have high unemployment
• - Regional Unemployment Rate for QLD
  1.4-8.5

Source ABS Labour Force Survey
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Unemployment Rate by Selected Education
Qualifications
Source ABS Education and Work Survey May 2008
CAT. No. 6227
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Weekly Earnings by Selected Education
Qualifications
Source ABS Census of Population and Housing 2006
CAT No. 2914 (not include negative income, nil
income, not stated and not applicable)
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Job Growth by Industry 5 years to November 2008
(000s)
Source ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend
data).
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Job Growth for Skilled Low Skilled Labour
Source ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend
data).
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Labour Market Challenges

• Ongoing structural challenges
• Skills shortages
• Ageing workforce
• Slower growth in labour supply
• Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

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Professions/Trades in Shortage

• Health Professions
• Registered (Nurse, Midwife and Mental Health
  Nurse)
• Dentist and Dental Specialist
• Pharmacist (Hospital and Retail)
• Occupational Therapist
• Optometrist
• Physiotherapist
• Speech Pathologist
• Podiatrist
• Medical Diagnostic Radiographer
• Sonographer

• Automotive Trade Persons
• Motor Mechanic
• Automotive Electrician
• Panel Beater
• Vehicle Painter
• Electrical Trade Persons
• Refrigeration Mechanic
• Electronic Equipment Tradesperson

Source DEEWR SERA Survey
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Recruitment Success by Skill of Occupation
Source DEEWR Survey of Employers Recruitment
Experiences.
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Reasons Vacancies Difficult to Fill(Selected
Reason)
Source DEEWR Survey of Employers Recruitment
Experiences
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Impact of Global Financial Crisis
Latest forecasts from the Treasury (February 2009)

• Forecast slowing in economic growth
• GDP growth in Australia is predicted to slow to
  1 in the 2008-09 financial year and 0.75 in
  2009-10
• Employment is expected to contract in 2009 and
  remain weak in 2010
• As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to
  rise to 5.5 by June 2009 and 7 by June 2010

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The Global Financial Crisis

• Some industries, regions and individuals will be
  disproportionately affected
• Finance and Insurance and Property and Business
  Services industries most affected
• - Construction and Retail Trade also adversely
  affected
• In the 1990s recession, the greatest increase in
  unemployment occurred in regions which were most
  disadvantaged.
• People with the least skills and experience are
  most vulnerable
• - Young people, people with low
  qualifications, recent migrants and people in
  casual employment

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Ageing Workforce

• The Australian workforce is getting older
• Almost 2 out of every 5 workers are aged 45 years
  or over
• Almost half of the workforce in Agriculture,
  Forestry and Fishing Education and Health and
  Community Services are aged 45 years or over
• The median age of the workforce in 2006 was 39
  years
• Impact of an ageing population include
• Greater job and career opportunities for people
  of all ages
• Mature age workers increasingly being valued by
  employers

Source 2006 Census of Population and Housing,
DEEWR, Workforce Tomorrow
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Ageing Population 1971 to 2051
Source ABS Population Estimates and Projections
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Projected Labour Force2000 to 2050
Source Australian Centre of Population Research
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Number of occupations in shortage and
unemployment rate, Australia, 1988 to 2007
Proportion of Mature Age Workers in Selected
Skill Shortage Occupations

Source ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend
data).
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Projected Job Growth by Industry 5 years to
2013-14 ('000s)
Source ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend
data) DEEWR Projections.
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Projected Job Growth by Skill 5 years to 2012-13
Source ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend
data) DEEWR Projections.
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Jobs with good prospects - examples

• Accountants
• Bookkeepers
• Bricklayers
• Cabinetmakers
• Chefs and Cooks
• Customer Service Managers
• Dentists
• Finance Managers
• Financial Dealers/ Brokers
• Fitness Instructors
• General/Landscape Gardeners
• General Medical Practitioners
• Hairdressers

• Human Resource Professionals
• Legal Professionals
• Motor Mechanics
• Occupational Therapists
• Office Assistants/Managers
• Pharmacists
• Physiotherapists
• Policy Analysts
• Project/Program Administrators
• Receptionists
• Sales Assistants
• Security Officers/Guards
• Waiters

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Summary and Issues

• Shift towards services sector and skilled jobs
• Short-term softening in labour market expected
• Longer-term slowing in labour supply growth
• Ageing population

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Useful Labour Market Information

• Australian Jobs Publication www.workplace.gov.au/a
  ustralianjobs
• Job prospects of occupations www.jobsearch.gov.au
  /joboutlook
• Industry employment prospects at
  www.skillsinfo.gov.au
• State and Territory Skill Shortage Lists at
  www.workplace.gov.au/skillsindemand
• JobJuice helps young Australians who are looking
  for work and thinking about their future
  http//www.jobjuice.gov.au/

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• Thank You