JobsHousing

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UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Jobs-Housing Balance Model
December 4, 2003
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The Characteristics of This Model
UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• Structure emphasizes public policy impact
• Embodies the key forces that cause commuting
• Detailed where it needs to be
• Not detailed where it need not be

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Some Background Info
UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• We use a set of policy choices to drive the
  model
• These drivers are those things that
• Public policy has some control over
• Impact jobs, housing, and commuting
• Once we decide what these drivers are, but not
  necessarily their values, a key structural aspect
  of the model is determined.

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UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Model Structure
Economic Model
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project
The Basic Components
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• Causality Linkages

Residential Units Permitted ? Home
Prices Commercial Acreage by Type (retail,
office, industrial) ? job shares by
sector Number of Jobs by Sector ? Economy-wide
Average Salary ? Median Family Income
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• Causality Linkages

Jobs Quality of Life Housing Costs
? Migration Births, Deaths (Cohort Model),
Migration ? Total Population Change by Age
Distribution
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• Causality Linkages

Workers age 16 65 ? Total Employment Total
Employment ? (via unemployment rate) ? Total
Jobs Total Jobs and Shares from Commercial Land
Policy ? Number Jobs by Sector
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• Causality Linkages

Job holders with moderately high salary ? Number
of potential commuters Median Family Income
Home Prices ? Commute Flow out of Region Number
of Freeway Lanes (by route) ? Trip Capacity (by
route)
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• Causality Linkages

Trip Capacity Commute Flow ? Level of Service
(by route) Definitions Level of Service A
highest - - F lowest
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project

• Decision Rule for Transportation Link

If LOS(route) lt Level F, then the outbound
commuter leaves via the next closest node. If no
other node exists, then the model stops, and
prints a report of what the economy looks like at
that moment.
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UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Specific Scenarios and Findings Will Be
Presented at the Meeting