On access bandwidths

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On access bandwidths

• Per O. Andersson

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Outline

• Moores law and residential services
• Symmetry
• Operational expenses
• Bandwidth
• Television
• Flexibility
• New services
• Future requirements

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in any Package
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...by any Service...
SECURITY
SIZE
REALTIME
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from the Home Operator

• to operate the home network
• to act as 24/7/365 all-line helpdesk
• to be legal part for the relevant SLAs

• to specify, negotiate and deliver home network
  services to the end-users (family)
• to be responsible for multiple carrier
  agreements (broadband, mobile, fixed)
• to take end-to-end responsibility for reliable
  service delivery to the end-user
• to track and follow the development of the
  relevant technologies (broadband, HDTV,
  convergence, VoIP, mobile, 3G, HSDPA, WiMax,
  fixed wireless, WiFi

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Will it continue?- Does Moore hold up?
100 Tb 1 Tb 600 Mb
x10 000
10 Tb 100 Gb 60 Mb
x1000
1 Tb 10 Gb 6 Mb
x100
100 Gb 1 Gb 560 kb
x10
10 Gb 155 Mb 56 kb
x1
2000
2005
2010
Internet expansion
Image services?
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Service Breakthroughs During 130 Years
â
Personal service
Shared service
Breakthrough
Image
Sound
Symbol
Time
2000
1900
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Personal Control
VR ?

• Increased personal control

Control
Message
Is there another control?
Is there another data type?
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Capex/Opex - Two approaches

• Type A for high flexibility optimised OpEx
• Large Customer base with churn (incumbent)
• Type B for lowest CapEx but higher OpEx
• Build revenue streams with lower initial risk
  (competitive)

Capex/Opex
Type A
Future changes?
Type B
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(A)symmetric Network Value
Peering point
Full disk
Full disk
Symmetric Network
Asymmetric Network

• Symmetry very valuable
• Any P2P network
• Most human communication

• Symmetry irrelevant
• Centralized content distribution

Note that many peer2peer applications now go
beyond filesharing to become a professional way
of distributing content and programs, telephony,
grid computing etc
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ADSL2 Reach Performance Overview
Data Rate, Mbps
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Pretty deep fibre
VDSL
Shannons information theorem (S/N-limited,
here crosstalk)
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ADSL2
NTT measurement centre of gravity
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ADSL2
ADSL
6 Km
1 Km
2 Km
3 Km
4 Km
5 Km
Length, Km
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Measured Distance and Speed for ADSL
Real upgrade path
Performance spread
1 km _at_ 10 Mbit/s
Downstream Bit rate
3 km _at_ 2 Mbit/s
Loss(dB)
Distance(km)
From ECOC04 Y. Maeda, NTT
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But you code all this to x Mb/s with MPEG-y

• 10 x 12 bits resolution
• Total 120 pixels
• 21 bits of information
• Information matched to display resolutio
• E.g.5 Mb/s MPEG-2 on standard TV

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...yes, but most of that means lower quality...

• 20 x 24 bits resolution
• Total 480 pixels
• 21 bits of information
• Information less than display resolution - for
  example due to compression
• E.g.5 Mb/s MPEG-2 on HDTV

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High Definition simply has more information!

• 20 x 24 bits resolution
• Total 480 pixels
• 42 bits of information
• Information matched to display resolution
• E.g. 20 Mb/s MPEG-2 on HDTV

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So whats your Bandwidth...?
Quality (PQR)
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5
10
Scene
Sports
Mixed
Face
Technology
Leading
Medium
Simple
Algorithm
RAW
Lossless
MP-1
MP-2
MP-4
Display
D-Cinema
HD2
HD1
DV
VHS
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The bandwidth cube

• Less cost time
• No quality review
• Less coding (realtime!)
• Processor, memory cost
• (x 2 or 3)

• Image size
• SDTV to HiDef
• (x 4)

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8
8
4
2
4

• Starting point
• Hi performance MPEG-2 SDTV
• (2 Mbit/s)

• Better Codec
• MPEG-2 to H.264
• (x 0.5)

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1
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Revenue per Megabit MegaByte
1/day 30 Euro/mo
0,2 Euro/min ca 300 Euro/24h
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The price of bandwidth

• Expensive bandwidth is not an axiom

Price/bit
Cost/bit
Then
Now
Future
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The Next x10 DTV-based?

• DTV is not the same old thing as TV
• DTV requires gt 95 penetration
• DTV requires telecom quality Five 9s -
  99.999 or 5 min/yr
• DTV requires 2-4 simultaneous channels/family,
  incl. HDTV
• Video can get away with 2 Mb/s - DTV needs 20-50
  Mb/s
• Which Triple Play?
• A) 1ch VoD VoIP BE Internet (BE, 5 Mbs)
• B) 3-4ch (HD)TV IP Telephony Future Internet
  (QoS, 20-30 Mbs)
• Three delivery methods
• Air
• Cu
• Fibre

Bandwidth, QoS
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Competitive Landscape - Delivery
Delivery?
Modem
STB, TV, PC
Servers, Transport
Modem
Fibre
100 Mb/s
Cable
20M xDSL
10 Mb/s
DTB
5M DSL
1 Mb/s
512k DSL
Truckrolls
0,1 Mb/s
Cu
Modem
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Mistakes in History- Lee de Forest 1926
Although Television may be theoretically and
technically possible, I consider it to be a
financial and commercial impossibility
(Radio pioneer, inventor of the triode)
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Help! Im not used to this...!

• Video services are culturally uncharted
  territory
• Public acceptance may treat all services alike
• Result has massive impact on telecom network

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ECOC 2004 demo
The small room
The large room
A 2K projector a.k.a. 1080 HDTV
A Community Hub model at ECOC 2004
Testing the Window to the world
Small room Telepresence to KTH via Ericsson
MINI-LINK
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The Community Hub

• Broadband for all
• 2nd wave/emerging markets

• Window to the world
• Full-presence video
• eye, size, distance
• eye-commerce
• e-government
• e-healthcare

• Centre Stage
• e-Cinema event
• Personalized events
• Politics religion, sports
• Connection to mobile 3G

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2D and 3D Holography

• 2D Holography
• 2D images by diffraction from dynamic hologram
• Essentially standard video-rates
• Requires Hi-Def SLM
• Requires RGB-lasers/LD(?)
• Prototypes today
• Gives pocket HiDef-projectors

• 3D Holography
• Artificial real-time calculation and generation
  of a true 3D hologram
• Requires x100 in processing power
• Requires ca 1um pitch SLM (today 10um)
• Requires RGB-lasers LD(?)
• 10 years with Moore?
• Gives dynamic 3D imaging

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Summary - bandwidths

• Home networking - will be complex
• Hi-Def triple-play emerging
• Multi-service, multi-vendor, multi-technology
• Your bandwidth may vary
• Symmetry will be valuable
• Low Opex will be necessary
• 100 Mb/s Ethernet natural choice

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Challenges for 21st Century Society

• Business
• Original, self-sustained, creation of value and
  employment is necessary to create prosperity and
  security.
• Culture
• Unhindered access to local and world culture is
  necessary to be considered an attractive region
  to work and live in.
• Society
• High-quality societal services are necessary for
  a region to be able to care for its inhabitants.
• With
• Availability
• To all people in all parts of a region - or of
  the world.
• Sustainability
• Economic, Social and Environmental

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Moore is also a business and social factor...
Socio-economics
Technology
New investment
Lithography vacuum equipment
Business growth
Number of transistors per chip
Commercial acceptance
Service complexity Communication need
Usefulness
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Global Market Need- Short term to 2010

• Short term growth markets stock market
  analysis
• Telecommunication
• Convergence
• Emerging markets (second wave)
• Digitisation of TV and film (analogue switch-off)
• Emerging bio-photonics
• ?
• Positioning for long-term?

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Meanwhile in the Middle East
Demand ca 1,5 /yr

• Regular Oil Gas
• Total Oil in Place ca 2,4Tb (arrels)
• Daily use ca 80 Mb (arrels)
• Yearly use ca 30 Gb (arrels)

Supply
Demand driven
Supply driven
Peak oil, est. 2008
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Peak Oil meets Fibre Optics

• Assume PO ca 2010
• Mental change
• Transport prices increasing
• Political and market uncertainties
• Government and market adjustments steering
• Financing redirected towards energy (and
  transport) use
• Terabit Society ca 2010
• Bubble-era systems 32- 40ch _at_ 10 Gb/s filled up
  and to be replaced
• Multi-Mb _at_ home, 10G _at_ metro, Terabit in
  transport
• Analogue TV and photo being replaced all is
  going digital
• Emerging home networking
• Energy consumption focus (flat screens, fibre)
• Second Opto-bubble? tempered by competition
  for funding
• Can Moore be maintained in the new paradigm?

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Global Market Need- Long term to 2050

• Long term growth markets important problems
• Natural resource utilisation oil, gas, water,
  forest, agriculture
• Sustainable manufacturing and recycling
• Energy utilisation and distribution
• Transport Communication - main replacement for
  liquid fuels
• Medicine and care demographic changes
• Success is required to obtain/maintain prosperity
  and security
• Very large RD resources will be directed towards
  energy realignment
• Telecommunications will be truly key (physical
  transport replacement)

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Global Market Need- Long term to 2050

• Long term growth markets important problems
• Natural resource utilisation oil, gas, water,
  forest, agriculture
• Sustainable manufacturing and recycling
• Energy utilisation and distribution
• Transport Communication - main replacement for
  liquid fuels
• Medicine and care demographic changes
• Success is required to obtain/maintain prosperity
  and security
• Very large RD resources will be directed towards
  energy realignment
• Telecommunications will be truly key (physical
  transport replacement)
• Sweden has pole position in several core areas
  (at present)
• Technical and organizational
• Public and private sector
• Industry profile?

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Role of Telecommunication after PO

• Energy will be prime focus and driver of
  everything
• Telecom should still be good priority - but
  amount of funding?
• Development might have to be done by old
  technologies IPR mining?
• Developed areas (Sweden, Europe)
• Telecommuting as substitution
• Strong political demands from rural areas
• Emerging markets (China, India)
• Enhanced focus on Telecommunication from scratch

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