ONI0397 Intel Training Program

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ONI0397 Intel Training Program

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Develop shared awareness of unit activities ... Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton University Press. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: ONI0397 Intel Training Program


1
ONI0397 Intel Training Program
  • LT Lindsay
  • ISC Hill

2
ITP Objectives
  • Refresh supplement NBIT(BRIT)/NIOBC
  • Sharpen analysis presentation skills
  • Develop shared awareness of unit activities
  • Develop shared awareness of and leverage civilian
    expertise

3
ITP Plan
  • One division each month
  • Provide analytical overview/update of production,
    or
  • Nominate member to apply civilian expertise to
    intel issue , or
  • Other substantive or methodological intel topic
  • One hour brief on Sunday morning
  • Emphasis on framing questions predictions, not
    mechanical PowerPoint briefing
  • Informal, non-evaluated, workshop atmosphere

4
ITP Schedule
  • FEB ITP Overview Intel Methodology (LT Lindsay
    ISC Hill)
  • MAR China (LT Lindsay ISC Hill)
  • APR TBD
  • MAY TBD
  • JUN TBD
  • AUG TBD

5
IntelligenceMethodology
6
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7
The Basic Intel Problem
Reality
False
True
False Positive (ex Iraq WMD)
True
Assessment
False Negative (ex 9/11)
False
8
Overview
  • Obstacles to Accuracy
  • Cognitive
  • Organizational
  • Critical Thinking

9
Cognitive Biases
  • Fixity of belief
  • New information assimilated to existing images
  • Confirmation bias
  • Ignore/discount disconfirming evidence
  • Incremental Interpretation
  • More data ? more confidence, not more accuracy
  • Satisficing
  • First available answer/analogy, rather than
    systematic search evaluation
  • Framing (Prospect)
  • Presentation influences judgment

10
Cognitive-Social Biases
  • False confidence
  • Im an expert, nothing surprises me
  • Attribution Error
  • We respond to accidental circumstances They
    act intentionally
  • Their behavior is coordinated, centralized,
    intentional
  • Our effort ? their good behavior Their
    character ? their bad behavior
  • Shared Information
  • They know what we know
  • Mirror Imaging/Ethnocentrism
  • They think and act like us

11
Intel Cost/Value
Open Source
Secret
Value added
Cost/effort
12
Organizational Problems
  • Consistency Bias
  • Classification ? Selection Bias
  • Complexity
  • Sharing, Communication
  • Circular Reporting
  • Time Constraints
  • Short Term Horizon
  • Current Production
  • Measures of Effectiveness
  • Quantity over Quality
  • Consensus
  • Oversupply
  • Politicization

13
So many problems, so what?
14
From Tradecraft to Method
  • Make Assumptions Hypotheses Explicit
  • Are there alternative explanations?
  • Let a hundred flowers bloom.
  • Infer Predictions
  • Imagine key assumption is 100 falsehow could
    this be?
  • Test Predictions
  • Collection, Analysis
  • Assess
  • How sensitive is conclusion to change in
    variables?

15
Strong v. Weak Evidence
Certain (Explanation definitely predicts)
Yes
No
Yes
Decisive
Smoking Gun
Unique (no other explanation)
Circumstantial
Hoop Test
No
16
The Intelligence Cycle Were Taught
Ops Requirements
Ops Feedback
Collection
Dissemination
Analysis
Production
17
The Real Intelligence Cycle
Intel infers needs
Ops receives reacts
Task Collection
?
Dissemination
Raw intel
Analysis Production
Treverton 2001
18
Know Thy Operator
  • Dont wait for requirements
  • Get out of the SCIF
  • Find out what information matters why
  • Always speak the truth

19
Summary Intelligence Integrity
  • Be relevant
  • Be vigilant against bias
  • Be critical seek alternative explanations, hard
    tests

20
Questions?
21
Further Reading
  • Herman, Michael. 1996. Intelligence Power in
    Peace and War. Cambridge Cambridge University
    Press.
  • Heuer, Richards J. 1999. Psychology of
    Intelligence Analysis. Center For the Study of
    Intelligence.
  • Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and
    Misperception in International Politics.
    Princeton University Press.
  • Johnston, Rob. 2005. Analytic Culture in the US
    Intelligence Community an Ethnographic Study.
    Washington, DC Center For the Study of
    Intelligence.
  • Lowenthal, Mark M. 2000. Intelligence From
    Secrets to Policy. Washington DC CQPress.
  • Treverton, Gregory F. 2001. Reshaping National
    Intelligence in an Age of Information. Cambridge
    Cambridge University Press.
  • Van Evera, Stephen W. 1997. Guide to Methods For
    Students of Political Science. Ithaca, NY
    Cornell University Press.

22
Hypothesis
Dependent Variable
Independent Variable
Intervening Variable
Condition Variable
Condition Variable
23
Secrecy v. Effectiveness
Analysis
CI
Effectiveness
Secrecy
Sec
24
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