Title: The Pileus Project: Climate Science for Decision Support
1The Pileus Project Climate Science for Decision
Support
- Julie Winkler
- Michigan State University
- February 16, 2006
Funded by the U.S. EPA
2Pileus Project Goals
- Identify, with stakeholder assistance, the
influence of climate on the Michigan agriculture
and tourism industries
- Create empirical and physically-based models to
quantify the impacts of past and projected
climate variability and change on agriculture and
tourism in Michigan.
- Develop decision-support tools for weather and
climate-related risk management
- Build strong stakeholder-research partnerships
3Pileus Project Core Team
Agriculture
Climate
Dr. Jeffrey Andresen Dr. Roy Black
Tourism
Dr. Julie Winkler Dr. Jeffrey Andresen
Tracy Beedy Costanza Zavalloni
Dr. Don Holecek Dr. Sarah Nicholls Dr. Peter
Sousounis
Galina Guentchev Krerk Piromsopa
Lori Martin Charles Shih Jeonghee Noh
Administration/Coordination/Communications Jeanne
Bisanz
4Why call the project Pileus?
5Why Study Climate Variability and Tart (Sour)
Cherries?
- Tart cherries are extremely vulnerable to
temperature extremes. - Tart Cherry yields are more variable than those
for any other agricultural commodity in the U.S
(0 to 150 in the last 10 years). - Michigan is the primary producer of tart cherries
in the U.S. (gt70 of production), and most parts
of the value chain are in the state. - The impact of climate on the tart cherry industry
is not well understood and has not been
investigated in an industry-wide context. - Collectively, these factors allow a unique
opportunity to link expertise in tart cherry
production, economics, and climate science.
6Approach/Methodology
- Sequential approach used (linkage of multiple
models) at multiple locations across the Great
Lakes Region - Models of tart cherry phenology, yield, and
economic value chain were developed. - Two time frames considered historical
(1960-2003) and projected future (1990-2100). - Ensemble of climate scenarios employed to
estimate uncertainty. - Based on stakeholder input, research results used
to develop www-based tools for industry. - Approach designed to be exportable to other
systems.
7Socioeconomic Scenarios
Value Chain Economic Model(s)
Tart Cherry Simulation Model
Risk Management Decision Making Tools, Policy
Framework
Climate Observations or Scenarios
Land use change scenarios
8Stakeholder Involvement
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10Historical Climate Tool
- The Historical Climate Tool provides users with
access to over 40 years (1960-2002) of daily
observations for seven climate variables at 15
stations in the Great Lakes region and three
nearby large urban areas (Chicago, Milwaukee, and
Minneapolis). Data can be downloaded into an
EXCEL file format for further analysis by the
user. The climate variables are maximum
temperature, minimum temperature, daily average
temperature, liquid-equivalent precipitation,
frozen precipitation, Heat Index and Wind Chill. - The summary option for the Historical Climate
Tool allows the user to view climate summary
statistics in a graphical format for the seven
climate variables listed above. Users have the
option to view the climatological normals and
daily extreme values by month for 1971-2000 or to
compare recent observations for selected
stakeholder relevant periods to climatological
normals.
11Observed Climate Data
- Primary source is State Climatology Office for
Michigan. - Data come from cooperative stations and
first-order stations - Unique in that the temperature, liquid
precipitation, and snowfall data have been
subjected to additional quality-control
procedures and missing data have been estimated
from neighboring stations. - Quality-controlled series for 1960-2000
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131982-1-1 to 1-15
14Future Climates
- Users can create their own scenarios.
- Use a suite of already created scenarios.
- A scenario is an internally consistent and
plausible future state (Carter et al. 1996). A
scenario is NOT a forecast or a prediction. A
scenario is a tool, and the traditional
starting point for a climate impact assessment.
15Several sources of uncertainty
- Many sources of uncertainty need to be considered
- Cascade of Uncertainty
Source IPCC, 2001
16Ensemble Approach
- Multiple scenarios for each location are used to
estimate the quantifiable range of uncertainty.
Source IPCC, 2001
17Variables
- Basic variables (maximum temperature, minimum
temperature, wet/dry days, and liquid-equivalent
precipitation) - Daily temporal resolution for multiple locations
- Climate model (GCM) based
- Empirically-derived
- Change in mean may not be very meaningful. More
important are changes in climate variables
relevant to an activity or industry - The basic climate variables (i.e., maximum
temperature, minimum temperature, and liquid
precipitation) can be used to derive thresholds,
spells, snowfall, etc.
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19- 15 Locations
- 3 climate parameters
- Tmax
- Tmin
- precipitation
- 4 GCMs
- CCC CGCM2
- HadCM2
- MPI ECHAM4
- NCAR CSM1.2
- 2 Emission scenarios
- A2, B2
- 5 Downscaling methodologies
gt60 scenarios for each climate variable per
location
20gt60 scenarios for each climate variable per
location
2000 daily temperature and precipitation
scenarios for 1990-2100
21Future Scenarios Tool
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27Projected change in the number of wet days in a
30-year period
28SUMMER
29SPRING
30Future Work
- Important spatial-temporal dynamics are missing
from the assessment process - International trade
- Emerging and/or declining production areas and
markets - Flexibility (mid-course adjustments, insurance)
31A International Collaborative Effort
- Ninety percent of world production of tart
cherries is concentrated in only nine countries
North America (primarily U.S.) and central Europe
(primarily Germany and Poland). - The German and United States industries can be
considered mature, with a structure
representative of much of agriculture in the
developed world (more concentrated production
with increasing pressure from new competitors) - The Polish tart cherry industry is developing
rapidly technological advances have motivated a
steady increase in production and world trade
volumes since 1996. Poland is now the world
leader in tart cherry exports. - Ukrainian industry is currently struggling with
conversion to a free-market system. Production
continues to supply local needs and provide
regional benefits, but policy and infrastructure
have constrained new long-term agricultural
investments including those in tart cherries
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33Questions?
34Contact Information
- Jeff Andresen andresen_at_msu.edu
- Julie Winkler winkler_at_msu.edu