The Pileus Project: Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Sour Cherry Production in the Great Lakes Region

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The Pileus Project Impacts of Climate
Variability and Climate Change on Sour Cherry
Production in the Great Lakes Region
J.A. Andresen, C. Zavalloni, J.R. Black, J.A.
Winkler, J.M. Bisanz, and J.A. Flore Depts. of
Geography, Ag. Economics, and Horticulture Michiga
n State University East Lansing, MI
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Components of the Pileus Project
Weather/Climate (Downscaling)
Dr. Julie Winkler, Galina Guentchev, Krerk
Piromsopa
Tourism
Agriculture
Sour cherry industry
Corn wheat quality
Dr. Jeff Andresen, Dr. Roy Black, Tracy
Beedy, Dr. Costanza Zavalloni
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Objectives

• Create and cultivate stakeholder-research
  partnerships Stakeholders help establish
  assessment goals, identify specific information
  needs, provide expertise, data and information.
• Develop quantitative, interactive models that
  effectively simulate relationships between
  climate variability and the tart cherry industry.
• Integrate stakeholder input and model simulations
  to develop decision-support tools for effective
  risk management in the Great Lakes Region.

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Why Study Climate Variability and Sour Cherries ?

• Michigan is the primary producer of sour cherries
  in the U.S. and most parts of the value chain are
  in the state.
• Sour cherries are extremely vulnerable to
  temperature extremes.
• The impact of climate on the sour cherry industry
  is not well understood and has not been
  investigated in an industry-wide context.
• Collectively, these factors allow a unique
  opportunity to link expertise in sour cherry
  production, economics, and climate science.

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Approach/Methodology

• Sequential approach used (linkage of multiple
  models) at 15 locations across the Great Lakes
  Region
• Models of tart cherry phenology, yield, and
  economic value chain were developed
• Two time frames considered historical
  (1960-2003) and projected future (1990-2100)
• Projected future time frame developed from 4
  separate GCMs, at least 5 different downscaling
  methodologies, and 2 separate GHG emission
  scenarios for more than 60 scenarios per site
• Based on stakeholder input, research results
  used to develop www-based tools for industry
• Approach designed to be exportable to other
  systems

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Socioeconomic Scenarios
Value Chain Economic Model(s)
Climate Observations or Scenarios
Sour Cherry Simulation Model
Risk Management Decision Making Tools, Policy
Framework
Land use change scenarios
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Hart
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Sour Cherry Simulation Model Development

• The project requires development of a simple,
  physically-based simulation of the major
  horticultural processes.

• Major components include
• - phenology
• - cold Injury (Dennis and Howell, 1974)
• - leaf area development
• - water balance and use
• - disease risk
• - yield

• Potential weather/climate impacts were identified
  by the literature and by the industry, especially
  growers.
• The strategy is to hold all aspects of the system
  constant except weather/climate to investigate
  potential impacts in past and projected future
  time frames.

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Phenology Simulation Development
Detailed observations of reproductive flower bud
stages were colleted twice a week on shoots and
spurs in 2 years (1994 and 1995) and three
location -Eau Claire (SW) -Clarksville
(WC) -Traverse City (NW)
Phenological stages were determined empirically
as a function of temperature, using SGDD4
(Eisensmith et al., 1980 and 1982).
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Reproductive Bud Development Prediction
Equation Stage 3-9
Stage 9.7329/(1((9.7329-2)/2)exp-0.0236SGDD
) R20.99
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Simulated vs. Observed Reproductive Phenology
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Significant Weather-Related Factors Associated
with Yield

• Freeze/cold injury to flower buds (-)
• Number of wet days (-) and length of bloom
  (pollination) ()
• Total precipitation during latter stages of
  previous growing season ()
• Leaf spot disease pressure previous growing
  season (-)

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Historical Climate Trends in the Great Lakes
Region

• Mean air temperatures have increased during the
  last 25 years, but still remain within observed
  historical ranges of the past century
• Climate has become wetter and cloudier,
  especially during the last 50 years
• The amount of ice on the Great Lakes during the
  winter has decreased and the seasonal onset of
  spring warmth has come earlier in recent decades.
  However, the frequency and magnitude of spring
  freeze events has no changed.

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Grand Traverse Bay No. Years Ice Cover per
Decade(1851-2000)
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Projected Climate of the Great Lakes Region

• Mean air temperatures are projected to increase
  approximately 1-4?C by the end of this century.
• Projected trends in precipitation are unclear,
  with some climate simulations suggesting a wetter
  climate and others a drier climate.
• Future changes in the frequency and magnitude of
  weather extremes, a key factor for cherry
  production, remain unknown.

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• 15 locations
• 3 climate parameters
• Tmax
• Tmin
• precipitation
• 4 GCMs
• CCC CGCM2
• HadCM3
• MPI ECHAM4
• NCAR CSM1.2
• 2 emission scenarios
• A2, B2
• 8 Downscaling methodologies

NCAR
ECHAM
64 scenarios for each climate variable per
location
Canadian
Hadley
A2, B2 multiple downscaling methodologies
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Projected Change in Median Day of the Year of
Side green Mid-century (2040-2059) vs. late
century (2080-2099)Maple City, MI
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Projected Change in Average Percent of Viable
Flower Buds Mid-century (2040-2059) vs. late
century (2080-2099)Maple City, MI
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Projected Average Annual Returns per
AcreSouthwest Lower MI (2020-2050)
per Acre
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Projected Change in Average Percent of Viable
Flower Buds Maple City
Control period 1990-2009
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Current and Future Work

• Further refinement of the yield function
• Address the impact of microclimate on regional
  production (e.g. orchard site selection)
• Evaluate the future projected scenarios,
  including precipitation
• Investigate the impact of a changing climate on
  the risk and management of cherry leaf spot.
• Include potential impact of CO2 enrichment

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Simulated Pest Management Parameters, Apple
Codling MothEast Jordan, MI
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6
3
3
1663
1477
1201
2
4
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Questions?