Impacts%20of%20Global%20Climate%20Change%20on%20Tribes%20in%20Washington

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Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in
Washington

• Part 2 Impacts on Salmon
• by Robert S. Cole
• The Evergreen State College

2
Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in
Washington (Part 2)Abstract

• This case study is an introduction to the
  potential impacts of global climate change on
  some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It
  explores specifically the impacts of global
  climate change on the salmon life cycle. Because
  salmon have been such an integral part of
  indigenous cultures in the Pacific Northwest for
  thousands of years into present times, disruption
  of the salmon life cycle must be taken seriously.
  This case explores the impacts of increased air
  and water temperatures, of increased winter
  precipitation with decreased snowpack, of
  decreased summer precipitation, on the salmon
  life cycle. This case is designed as a clicker
  case to be used in conjunction with interrupted
  lecture or interrupted workshop formats of
  presentation.

3

• The Pacific salmon have been a central part of
  the culture and economy of the indigenous peoples
  of the Pacific Northwest for thousands of years.
• That remains true today.
• The health and well-being of salmon stocks have
  been at the heart of the Boldt decision (U.S. v.
  Washington, 1974) and the Martinez decision (U.S.
  v. Washington, 2007), which affirmed fishing
  rights for Tribes, and the centrality of
  protecting salmon habitat from degradation.
• Image courtesy of Phillip Martin

4

• Since the Boldt decision, the Tribes in
  Washington State have played a crucial role in
  salmon management, salmon research, and salmon
  habitat restoration.
• The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC)
  plays a central role in working on fisheries
  management with federal and state agencies and
  with the Tribes.
• The NWIFC has been a major source of quantitative
  measurements of salmon distribution and health,
  and uses sophisticated data analysis methods.
• The NWIFC has taken a leading role in habitat
  multiple kinds of restoration projects throughout
  the Salish Sea region.

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• Over the past 200 years, the dominant culture has
  inflicted massive habitat degradation for salmon,
  including hydroelectric dams on many rivers,
  deforestation, alteration of riparian habitat,
  channeling rivers and streams, introduction of
  toxics and other pollutants, and destruction of
  estuaries and near-shore marine kelp beds.
• To aid salmon at all stages of the salmon life
  cycle, Tribal peoples, along with federal and
  state agencies and numerous environmental
  organizations have invested significant time and
  effort to help restore riparian habitat,
  estuaries and near-shore environments, and
  eliminate sources of toxics and pollution.

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• Climate change may have an impact on the salmon
  life cycle in ways that are fundamentally
  different from the habitat destruction of the
  past 200 years.

7

• At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and
  academic people interested the impacts of global
  climate change on the salmon life cycle in
  Washington, several presenters showed some slides
  of likely scenarios. This case examines some of
  the issues that are of direct interest to anyone
  who cares about healthy salmon habitat and
  healthy salmon runs
• Impact on salmon of increased air and water
  temperatures
• Impact on salmon of altered precipitation
  patterns
• Impact on salmon of altered stream and river
  hydrology

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CQ 1 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
impact on salmon of global climate change?

• A. The impact on salmon, if any, will be small
  compared to natural changes that have occurred
  before.
• The impact on salmon will be minor, but wont
  cause major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle.
  
• The impact on salmon will be significant, and
  will alter the salmon life-cycle.
• The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and
  will eliminate the species from streams and
  rivers in Washington.

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The Climate Impacts Group at the University of
Washington predicts that

• There will be a rise in average temperature
  throughout the 21st century
• There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound
  region throughout the 21st century
• There will be a significant alteration of the
  hydrological cycle in the Pacific Northwest
  throughout the 21st century
• All of this will have substantial impact on the
  salmon runs, timber production, hydroelectric
  energy production, agriculture, and land areas
  close to sea level.

http//cses.washington.edu/cig/
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Here are three graphs related to air temperatures
in the Pacific Northwest that the Climate Impacts
Group has assembled
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Average temperature could increase beyond the
year-to-year variability observed in the PNW
during the 20th century as early as the 2020s
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PNW climate change
2020s Temperature Precip
Low 0.7?F (0.4?C) - 4
Average 1.9?F (1.1?C) 2
High 3.2?F (1.8?C) 6
Accelerated warming 2 F by 2020, 3 F by 2040
(relative to 1970-1999) Rate of increase is 1.5-6
times faster than during 20th century Possibly
more warming in summer than winter Precipitation
variability continues
2040s Temperature Precip
Low 1.4?F (0.8?C) - 4
Average 2.9?F (1.6?C) 2
High 4.6?F (2.6?C) 9
All changes are benchmarked to average
temperature and precipitation for 1970-1999
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PNW Temperature Trends by Station

• Average annual temperature increased 1.5?F in
  the PNW during the 20th century

• Almost every station shows warming
• Extreme cold conditions have become rarer
• Low temperatures rose faster than high
  temperatures

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CQ 2 Based on your understanding of the above
slides, what do you think best describes the
local consequences of local air temperature
change on the salmon in local streams?

1. Air temperature rise will not affect salmon,
   because they dont live in the air.
2. Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on
   salmon because salmon can thrive in a range of
   different temperatures.
3. Air temperature rise will have a detrimental
   effect on salmon because stream water
   temperatures will rise along with the air
   temperature.
4. Air temperature rise will stop the salmon
   altogether from swimming upstream.

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Here are some upper limits of water temperature
that various species of salmon can withstand.
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Here are the historical temperatures in
August. Shaded areas Air temperatures Circl
es maximum stream temperatures
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Here are the anticipated August temperatures
with two different models (A1B and B1) of
greenhouse gas accumulation. Shaded areas
Air temperatures Circles Maximum stream
temperatures
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Here are the anticipated increases in weekly
maximum stream temperatures.
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Here are the anticipated average number of weeks
per year that stream temperatures exceed 21C
(70F).
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Discussion

• Given the slides that youve seen, spend a few
  minutes discussing the impact of increasing water
  temperatures on salmon.
• What types of streamside management might help
  minimize stream water warming?

21
The Climate Impacts Group at the University of
Washington has said that expected 21st century
changes in temperature and precipitation will
transform the hydrologic behavior of many
mountain watersheds in the West. The next slide
shows some of the projections
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Trends in Spring Runoff
Peak of spring runoff is moving earlier into the
spring throughout western US and Canada

• Advances of 10-30 days between 1948-2000
• Greatest trends in PNW, Canada, and AK
• gt30 of trends are statistically significant at
  the 90 level, especially in the PNW

Stewart, I., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D.,
2004, Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in
western North America under a "Business as Usual"
climate change scenario Climatic Change 62,
217-232.
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CQ 3 Based on your understanding of the above
slide, which statement best characterizes the
impact of trends in spring runoff on the salmon
life-cycle?

• Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable
  effect on the salmon life cycle.
• Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in
  returning earlier to the rivers.
• Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life
  cycle.
• Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon
  life cycle.

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(No Transcript)
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Shifts in Streamflow
Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin
26
CQ 4 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in winter streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?

1. Shifts in winter streamflow will have no
   discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
2. Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in
   returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
3. Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon
   eggs because of increased flooding.
4. Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the
   salmon life cycle.

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Discussion

• Discuss in small groups what effect increased
  streamflow in the winter months might have on the
  salmon life-cycle.

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Shifts in Streamflow
Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin
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(No Transcript)
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CQ 5 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in summer streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?

1. Shifts in summer streamflow will have no
   discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
2. Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in
   returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
3. Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon
   smolt trying to get downstream.
4. Shifts in summer streamflow will completely
   destroy the salmon life cycle.

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Discussion

• Discuss in small groups what effect decreased
  streamflow in the summer months might have on the
  salmon life-cycle.

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Trends in Snow Water Equivalent

• Most PNW stations show a decline in snow water
  equivalent
• Numerous sites in the Cascades with 30 to 60
  declines

Decrease Increase

• Similar trends seen throughout the western United
  States - 73 of stations show a decline in April
  1 snow water equivalent

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Spring snowpack will decline as more winter
precipitation falls as rain rather than snow,
particularly in transient (mid-elevation) basins
Main Impact Less Snow
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Impacts on Water Resources

• Increased winter flooding in many river basins
• Increased summer drought frequency
• Negative impacts on hydropower production,
  irrigation water supply, instream flow protection
• More stress on urban water supplies

• Less snow, earlier melt
• More water in winter
• Less water in summer
• Higher temperatures
• decreased winter electricity demand
• increased summer water electricity demand

Bottom line Increased competition for water and
increased vulnerability to drought
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Salmon Impacted Across Full Life-Cycle
36
Observed changes in natural systems (20th
century)
37
Observed 20th Century Changes
38
Nearly every glacier in the Cascades and
Olympics has retreated during the past 50-150
years
South Cascade Glacier, 1928 (top) and 2000
(right)
Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS
Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA
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Discussion

• Given the slides that youve seen, spend a few
  minutes discussing the possible approaches that
  the Tribes might take to get federal, state, and
  local governments more involved in taking steps
  to minimize the danger to salmon in the Pacific
  Northwest.

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Questions to Consolidate Your Learning
41
CQ 1 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
impact on salmon of global climate change?

• A. The impact on salmon, if any, will be small
  compared to natural changes that have occurred
  before.
• The impact on salmon will be minor, but wont
  cause major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle.
  
• The impact on salmon will be significant, and
  will alter the salmon life-cycle.
• The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and
  will eliminate the species from streams and
  rivers in Washington.

42
CQ 2 Based on your understanding of the above
slides, what do you think best describes the
local consequences of local air temperature
change on the salmon in local streams?

1. Air temperature rise will not affect salmon,
   because they dont live in the air.
2. Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on
   salmon because salmon can thrive in a range of
   different temperatures.
3. Air temperature rise will have a detrimental
   effect on salmon because stream water
   temperatures will rise along with the air
   temperature.
4. Air temperature rise will stop the salmon
   altogether from swimming upstream.

43
CQ 3 Based on your understanding of the above
slide, which statement best characterizes the
impact of trends in spring runoff on the salmon
life-cycle?

• Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable
  effect on the salmon life cycle.
• Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in
  returning earlier to the rivers.
• Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life
  cycle.
• Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon
  life cycle.

44
CQ 4 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in winter streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?

1. Shifts in winter streamflow will have no
   discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
2. Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in
   returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
3. Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon
   eggs because of increased flooding.
4. Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the
   salmon life cycle.

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CQ 5 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in summer streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?

1. Shifts in summer streamflow will have no
   discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
2. Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in
   returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
3. Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon
   smolt trying to get downstream.
4. Shifts in summer streamflow will completely
   destroy the salmon life cycle.

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References

• Excellent documents regarding climate change in
  general, and the potential effects on the
  hydrology of streams and rivers in Washington in
  particular, can be found at the website of the
  Climate Impacts Group at the University of
  Washington http//cses.washington.edu/cig/
  (accessed May 20, 2011). Information, research
  results, and data bases are constantly changing,
  and this site, along with the IPCC site (IPCC
  2007, below) are among the most credible. The
  website of the northwest Indian Fisheries
  Commission, http//nwifc.org/, is excellent.
  Also listed are two very fine books describing
  many features of the salmon life cycle.
• Bell 1996, Pacific Salmon From Egg to Exit,
  Gordon Bell, Hanncock House Publishers, 1996,
• ISBN 0-88839-379-2
• IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change, Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report,
  United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and
  the World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
  http//www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed May 22, 2011)
• Quinn 2005, The Behavior and Ecology of Pacific
  Salmon and Trout, Thomas P. Quinn, University of
  Washington Press, 2005, ISBN 0-295-98457-0
• Wolf Zuckerman 1999, Salmon Nation, Edward C.
  Wolf and Seth Zuckerman, editors, Ecotrust 1999,
  ISBN 0-9676364-0-X The opening article,
  Recalling Celilo, by Elizabeth Woody is
  excellent.

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References

• The following websites contain a wealth of
  information regarding Tribal actions to improve
  salmon habitat
• National Congress of American Indians,
  http//www.ncai.org/
• Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission,
  http//nwifc.org/
• The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians,
  http//www.atnitribes.org/
• Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission,
  http//www.critfc.org/
• The National Tribal Environmental Council,
  http//www.ntec.org/
• Wild Salmon Center, http//www.wildsalmoncent
  er.org/
• Ecotrust, http//www.ecotrust.org/

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For Further Study

• An excellent series of case studies that explores
  different aspects of salmon and Tribal peoples
  can be found at the website of the Enduring
  Legacies Native Case Studies Project
• http//nativecases.evergreen.edu/collection/themes
  /salmon.html