Climate stabilization: Targets and solutions for Ohio

1
Climate stabilizationTargets and solutions for
Ohio

• September 2004

2
Climate stabilization path for Ohio CO2 emissions
(Ohios proportional share)
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
To stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels at 450 ppm by
2100, Ohio will have to cut emissions by 57 from
2000 levels by 2050 (pink line) if it began next
year. Waiting more than a decade to begin
reductions (brown and orange lines), will require
up to an 80 reduction by 2050. Under a delay
scenario, most of the cuts will have to occur in
a ten year period. All of theses stabilization
pathways allow no more than 3,624 MMTC to be
cumulatively emitted from Ohio over the next
century this is Ohios share of the carbon
budget.
3
Why Ohio needs to focus on solutions

• Ohio is third in nation for CO2 emissions (behind
  TX and CA)
• Political reality whether its 1 year or 10
  years, the U.S. will eventually begin to address
  greenhouse gases in a serious manner
• Administration's position - The United States
  is taking prudent steps to address the long-term
  challenge of global climate change. We are
  reducing projected greenhouse gas emissions in
  the near term, while devoting greater resources
  to improving climate change science and
  developing advanced energy technologies.
  President Bush (2002)
• International pressure There is no bigger
  long-term question facing the global community
  than the threat of climate change. British Prime
  Minister Tony Blair (closest U.S. international
  ally) (2004)
• Congressional activity Majority party Senators,
  such as John McCain (R-AZ) and Richard Lugar
  (R-IN) are working to enact the first mandatory
  limits on U.S. greenhouse gases

4
Why Ohio needs to focus on solutions (cont.)

• The choices Ohio makes today will affect how it
  can meet future national policies and treaty
  agreements that cut greenhouse gases.
• Failure to prepare will likely leave Ohio at an
  economic disadvantage.
• Leadership will allow Ohio to help shape future
  policies and provide the greatest chance for
  economic opportunity
• Ohios economic base coal, agriculture,
  manufacturing could be poised to be large
  suppliers of climate solutions if the state leads
  rather than follows

5
Key Questions

• How can Ohio do its share to stabilize the
  climate?
• Are there Ohio friendly technology solutions
  that reduce greenhouse gases?
• Can Ohio move forward with no-regrets policies
  that make sense regardless of federal policy and
  treaty outcomes?

6
Targets

• CO2
• Proposals from leading climate scientists in the
  US and elsewhere focus on limiting temperature
  increases to 1-2oC. This means a range of an
  additional forcing of 1-2 W/m2, and CO2
  concentrations limited to between 450-550 ppm
• Other greenhouse gases and aerosols
• A leading U.S. climate scientists, James Hansen
  of NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  calculates that if non-CO2 climate forcings
  decrease by .5 W/m2, CO2 could stabilize at the
  high end of the 450-550 ppm range.
• The German governments Advisory Council on
  Global Warming has recommended industrialized
  counties reduce their non-CO2 greenhouse gas
  emissions 20 from todays levels by the year
  2020. Its possible that federal air quality
  standards will help the U.S. meet this goal for
  ozone and black carbon.

7
More Non-CO2 climate solutions

• Methane is roughly 25 times more potent a warming
  agent than CO2, but its lifetime is much shorter.
  There are several opportunities to capture
  methane emissions and use the methane for power
  generation. Sources include abandoned coal mines,
  landfills, and animal feedlots.
• Tropospheric ozone has the third largest
  radiative forcing of all climate forcers. In
  addition to NOx and VOCs, methane is a precursor
  to tropospheric ozone as well.

Ozone, methane and black carbon soot rival CO2 in
climate effects. Source Scientific American
(Hansen), March 2004.
8
Climate solutions e.g. Black Carbon
Off the shelf technologies can reduce diesel
black carbon emissions by 90. Reducing black
carbon emissions from

• on-road and non-road diesel engines in Ohio could
  potentially have more than half the cooling
  impact of cutting Ohio CO2 emissions to the level
  prescribed by the Kyoto accords but the impact
  would occur within 10 years, rather then the 100
  years

9
Carbon Dioxide Ohios emissions

• Ohios CO2 emissions in 2000 71.47 MMTC
• Electric Sector 32 MMTC
• Emissions sources Coal-fired power plants
  (99.4), natural gas and diesel (0.6)
• Transportation sector 18.68 MMTC
• Emission Source Cars (62) Trucks (25)
  Aviation (11) natural gas and other (2)
• Thermal Sector 20.79 MMTC
• Emissions source (Industrial) Natural gas (52)
  Coal (21) Coke coal (10) Pet coke (7)
  Diesel (5) Misc. industrial process (5)
• Emission source (Residential and Commercial)
  Natural gas (85) Diesel, Propane, Coal (15)

10
Ohio Climate Solution - Coal

• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)
  coal turns coal into a hydrogen gas and allows
  carbon dioxide to be more easily captured
• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) storing carbon
  geologically, future solutions could include
  carbon products
• IGCC could provide hydrogen fuel for electricity,
  transportation, and thermal sectors Princeton
  study concluded fuel cell cars could mean 20
  increase in Ohio coal production

11
Ohio Climate Solution - Agriculture and Forestry

• Re-directing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
  to the soil.
• OSU study - Ohio soils could sequester a total of
  288 MMTC at a rate of 10 MMTC per year No-till
  farming could add 2.84 MMTC per year
• U.S. Forest Service Study - Estimates by the U.S.
  Forest Service show that between 1987 and 1997
  Ohio forests sequestered 70 MMTCE an annual rate
  of 7 MMTC

12
Ohio Climate Solution - Manufacturing

• Climate solutions offer several opportunities
  for cluster development of new fabrication and
  design processes
• IGCC Design vendors, secondary suppliers
• Advanced engines Fuel Cells, HCCI, hybrid
  electrics
• Renewable energy Solar panel technology, wind
  turbine secondary suppliers
• Efficiency advanced lighting, heating, and
  appliance technology

13
Preparing for the long-termSome of Ohios major
employers are preparing for climate challenge
and positioning for economic growth

• American Electric Power
• offsetting some of their carbon dioxide emissions
  through soil sequestration (re-foresting)
  projects.
• participating in the Chicago Climate Exchange,
• planning on building a new Integrated
  Gasification Combined Cycle plant by 2010.
• Cinergy
• participating in the Bush Administrations
  climate leadership program commitment would
  would result in a reduction of CO2 emissions
  would allow the company to meet its share of a
  McCain-Lieberman
• working to re-power one of its old coal plants
  to a new IGCC coal facility.
• British Petroleum (owns one of Ohios largest
  refineries in Toledo) -
• Adopting several measures to manage its own
  greenhouse gas emissions.
• Recently, BP CEO, Lord John Browne, suggested
  policymakers set a global target for climate
  stabilization of limiting CO2 concentration to
  550ppm by 2100.
• DuPont (just celebrated the 50th anniversary of
  its plant in Circleville)
• ,reducing their global carbon-equivalent
  greenhouse gas emissions by 65 below 1990 levels
  by 2010
• holding total energy use flat using 1990 as a
  base year
• obtaining 10 percent of their global energy use
  in the year 2010 from renewable resources.
• However Ohio is largely lagging behind on
• climate solution leadership

14
Ohio carbon emissions over a century
Ohio Business As Usual emissions
Sector breakdown of BAU emissions
Ohio carbon budget
Breakdown of Sector Ohio carbon budget
15
Comparison of various electric sector solutions
to electric sectors share of Ohio carbon
budget(cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000
through 2100)
? Renewable Energy (3,400 MW by 2020)
? Combined Heat Power (CHP) (10,000 MW by 2020)
? 1 annual reduction in electricity demand -
efficiency
? Combination of renewable / CHP / efficiency
options
? Rebuilding generation to IGCC/CCS 2015-2045
? Combination of all options in sector
Power sector share of Ohio carbon budget
Business as Usual Ohio emissions
16
Comparison of various transportation sector
solutions compared to the transpo sectors share
of Ohio carbon budget
? Maintain car emissions at 2010 levels
? Maintain car and truck emissions at 2010 levels
? Transition to low/no carbon fuel 2025-2045
?Combination of both options in sector
Transportation sector share of Ohio carbon budget
Transportation BAU emissions
17
Comparison of various thermal sector solutions to
the sector share of Ohio carbon budget
? Maintaining 2010 emissions (through efficiency)
? Transition to low/no carbon fuel 2025-2045
? Combination of both options in sector
Thermal sector share of Ohio carbon budget
Thermal BAU emissions
18
Example of CO2 reduction strategy (near miss)
emissions are cumulative from 2000 through 2100
Ohio Business As Usual emissions
Ohio Carbon Budget and extra room from soil
sequestration
Solution scenario
19
Example of CO2 reduction strategy (near miss)
how it is implemented over time
2005Soil seq. starts renwables, efficiency, and
CHP programs start
2010 Vehicle efficiency starts
IGCC (coal/biomass) with carbon seq. start
Thermal sector begins shift to fuel cells
Soil seq. complete
IGCC and thermal sector turn-over complete
20
Solution Strategies

• I. Market and technology incubation
• IGCC
• CCS and carbon options
• Advanced power systems - hybrid, fuel cells,
  HCCI
• Bio-fuels
• II. Modernizing electricity systems
• IGCC rebuild
• Electricity demand reduction
• Combined Heat and Power
• Renewables

21
Solution Strategies

• III. New Transportation technologies
• Diesel clean-up
• Use of bio-fuels
• Encouraging market growth of advanced engines
  hybrids, HCCI, fuel cells
• IIII. Methane
• Landfills
• Feed lots
• Mines

22
Solution Strategies

• V. Soil sequestration
• Agriculture (no-till farming)
• Forestry (sustainable harvesting)
• VI. Thermal
• Efficiency
• Stationary fuels cells

23
Summary

• Ohio will be faced with reducing greenhouse gas
  emissions in the near future
• Key solutions speak to Ohios economic base
  Agriculture, coal, manufacturing
• State-based no regrets policies can help make
  Ohio climate solutions industry and technology
  leader
• Waiting will mean steeper emission cuts that are
  more difficult to obtain.

24
Ohio politics

• Backdrop
• Electric reliability questions black out
• Loss of manufacturing jobs
• Strong bi-partisan support for coal (more
  geography than ideology)
• Failure of federal air quality standards
  throughout Ohio
• Venues for state policies
• Push for re-regulation in state legislature
• IGCC bids by AEP and Cinergy
• New state consumers advocate
• Stand alone opportunities Ag interest in soil
  sequestration
• State Implementation Plans for meeting AQ
  standards