TAJIKISTAN Energy Sector Situation Report

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TAJIKISTANEnergy Sector Situation Report

• A presentation by the World Bank to the meeting
  of the Principals Group
• November 20, 2008
• Dushanbe, Tajikistan

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Outline

• Lessons learned from last years emergency
• Energy Sector Situation Update
• Summary and Challenges Ahead

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM LAST YEARS EMERGENCY
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A Tajik man carries a stove pipe on a street of
Dushanbe January 22, 2008. Extreme cold is no
surprise to the 60 million people scattered
across a region wedged between Russia, China and
Iran, but this year's winter has exposed the poor
state of crumbling Soviet-era utilities and
pipelines and sparked energy shortages. Photo
Credits CENTRALASIA-COLD/ REUTERS/Nozim
Kalandarov (TAJIKISTAN)
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A trolley cannot move due to lack of power.
January 2008. Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Photo
credits Sodiq Haitov (Tajikistan)
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(No Transcript)
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ENERGY SECTOR SITUATION REPORT
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Nurek Reservoir Managed Relatively Well

• July inflow was considerably lower than average
  while differences in other months were smaller

• Reached Dead Zone Mark on Feb 24/25
• Since May 14/15 Level has been above the
  dead-zone mark
• This year the full service level at Nurek
  Reservoir was not attained
• Maximum Nurek level was 902masl on September 20-21

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Better Nurek Reservoir Management Helping Manage
Situation

• Power supply in September-October was lower as
  compared with same period last year
• The Nurek Reservoir Management Model adopted by
  Barki Tajik envisages an optimal alternative for
  water release in November-March
• Power supplies during 12/2008 through 02/2009 are
  expected to be better than the last year

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Electricity Imports Assured Early On

• Generally achieved last winter
• Tajikistan imported 1350 GWh in January-April
  2008 and
• IQ 2008 Thermal generation was 24.2 GWh and about
  double of this amount in form of thermal energy
  was supplied to the Dushanbe District Heating
  System
• That is because gas supply was ensured and Fuel
  Oil supply was managed well
• There are two import agreement for 2008/2009
  winter
• With Turkmenistan for 1200 GWh in November
  08-April 09 and
• With Uzbekistan for 600 GWh in January-April 2009

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Power Supply Situation
Tajikistan Energy Balance
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Natural Gas Supplies

• Natural gas supplies have increased
• Industrial enterprises are main recipients
• Residential consumers are getting just 10 of
  this volume
• There are still arrears which need to be settled
  soon

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SUMMARY AND CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Summary and challenges ahead - I

• Situation is muddling through, albeit in a
  relatively better managed manner
• Nurek Reservoir is managed relatively well
• This year the reservoir did not achieve the full
  service level
• At the moment, its about 17 meters below the
  full service level mark and 36 meters above
  dead-zone mark
• Electricity imports started earlier
• Electricity imports from Uzbekistan September 1
  onwards
• Electricity imports from Turkmenistan October 31
  onwards
• Sangtuda-1 HPP output has doubled compared to
  last winter
• Third unit was put into operation in November
  2008
• Thermal capacity at Dushanbe CHP was increased
• 120MW before circa 180 MW now

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Summary and challenges ahead - II

• Near-term challenges
• Reduce gas arrears and increase gas supplies
• In the cold weather, the electricity system is
  severely burdened as a result of low volume of
  gas supplies
• Ensure all receive power and gasto make sure no
  one is left in the cold
• Tajikistan Energy Emergency Recovery Assistance
  Project is under implementation
• Medium-term challenges
• CASA 1000 Regional Transmission Project between
  Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kyrgyz Republic and
  Tajikistan is proceeding well
• Funded jointly by ADB, WB/IFC, IsDB PSP
  envisaged (10)
• WB is financing Rogun HEP Feasibility Study
• WB is financing F/S for Nurek HPP Modernization
• USTDA is financing Fon Yagnob Coal-Cum-Power
  Feasibility

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THANK YOU!