The CSIS Energy and National Security program, together with

1
The CSIS Energy and National Security program,
together with The Senate Energy and Natural
Resources Committee Monday, March 31, 2008,
Washington DC Making CCS Work Economics and
Critical Issues Sequencing the Deployment Two
Things About Various Aspects Jon Gibbins Energy
Technology for Sustainable Development
Group Mechanical Engineering Department Imperial
College London, SW7 2AZ, UK j.gibbins_at_imperial.ac.
uk Principal Investigator UK Carbon Capture and
Storage Consortium, www.ukccsc.co.uk OSI UK/China
Focal Point Scheme contact for Climate Change
Environment
2
CCS is the only way that fossil fuels can be used
safely
Unconventional oil includes oil sands and oil
shales. Unconventional gas includes coal bed
methane, deep geopressured gas etc. but not a
possible 12,000 GtC from gas hydrates.
Source http//www.ipcc.ch/
CARBON THAT CAN BE EMITTED TO ATMOSPHERE IN
THIS CENTURY
CARBON IN FOSSIL FUELS
1000 ppm
750 ppm
650 ppm
550 ppm
450 ppm
350 ppm
3

• Two things matter about CO2 emissions
• Short-term emission rates
• - policy targets, caps for trading
• Cumulative emissions over centuries
• - what determines climate change
• - far more fossil fuel available than the
  atmosphere can take

4
Fuel production costs /barrel oil equivalent
Gigatonnes of carbon from fossil fuels
(Data from H-H. Rogner, An assessment of world
hydrocarbon resources, Annual Review of Energy
and the Environment 1997. 2221762, adjusted
from 1990 to 2006 dollars Discussed in Gibbins
Barnett, Will renewables be cheap enough to fix
climate change?, Public Service Review, 2008.)
5

• Two things about
• renewable vs fossil economics
• Fossil fuel prices
• - the highest that suppliers can get
• - competition forces prices down to maintain
  sales
• 2. Fossil fuel costs of production
• - the lowest that suppliers will sell for
• - the number that renewables must beat to keep
  fossil fuels in the ground

6
Types of Carbon Capture Technology
Hydrocarbon fuels
IPCC Special Report on CCS
7

• Two costs can be quoted for the different
• CO2 capture technologies
• The jump in the cost of electricity when you
  assume capture is added to the same technology
• - often cited as cost of abatement
• - lowest for coal using IGCC, but IGCC initial
  cost higher (and harder to retrofit sensibly)
• 2. The cost of electricity with capture
• - very similar for all coal technologies (as far
  as can tell)
• - determines the real cost of capture, when
  compared to a standard baseline

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Fraction of world total
Cumulative total
Emissions data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
BAU Reference Scenario
2004
2030
2004
2030
USA
22.1
17.7
22.1
17.7
Lots of CO2
China
18.3
25.8
38.4
43.5
55.2
53.9
EU
14.8
10.4
Russia
5.8
4.7
61.0
58.5
Japan
4.6
2.9
65.6
61.4
Rest of OECD N. America
3.5
3.4
69.1
64.8
India
4.2
6.3
73.4
71.1
Africa
3.1
3.6
Lots of countries
Middle East
4.5
6.1
Latin America
3.5
3.8
Brazil
1.2
1.4
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• Two countries need to agree to tackle climate
  change seriously before CCS is likely to happen
  in a big way.
• But they are both so dependent on coal that they
  probably cannot sign up to big emission cuts
  without CCS

Catch 22 situation? Unfortunately this isnt a
story!
10
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 CCS projects A useful
concept to allow differentiation between good
and bad CCS
Type 1 CCS projects just stop things getting
worse Type 2 CCS projects make things get better
Type 3 CCS projects remove CO2 from
the air Type 1 Usually producing
hydrocarbons, get carbon footprint down to
conventional hydrocarbon levels e.g. coal to
liquids, oil sands but probably make more
fossil carbon available in total Type 2 Carbon
free energy vectors - electricity or H2 Type 3B
Biomass plus CCS (takes CO2 from the air) Type
3A Technology to process air directly to
capture CO2 EOR a grey area
1
2
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CCS - Sequencing the Deployment the Big Picture
RETROFIT CAPTURE
BUILD ALL PLANTS CAPTURE READY
Overall effort also important to maintain
continuity
GLOBAL CCS ROLLOUT
SECOND TRANCHE Commercial Regulatory Drivers
EU CCS ROLLOUT
12 plants by 2015 in EU
Big prize is getting two learning cycles from two
tranches of CCS projects before global rollout
IGCC/OXYFUEL NEW BUILD/ REBUILD PLANTS PATH TO
ROLLOUT
FIRST TRANCHE Demonstration
2015
2020
2025
Earliest demo plants?
Last plants in first
tranche
First plants in second
tranche
Later plant in second
tranche
Feedback from
first
tranche
into
First lead country rollout plants
second
tranche
Feedback from
First global rollout plants
second
tranche
into
EU and global rollout
Gibbins, J. and Chalmers, H. Preparing for global
rollout A developed country first
demonstration programme for rapid CCS deployment.
Energy Policy, 2008, 36(2), 501-507.
2015
2020
2025
12
New Build vs. Retrofit Learning Cycles
GLOBAL CCS ROLLOUT
SECOND TRANCHE Commercial Regulatory Drivers
EU CCS ROLLOUT
12 plants by 2015 in EU
Big prize is getting two learning cycles from two
tranches of CCS projects before global rollout
IGCC/OXYFUEL NEW BUILD/ REBUILD PLANTS PATH TO
ROLLOUT
FIRST TRANCHE Demonstration
2015
2020
2025
Second tranche plants overlap with first tranche
since many lessons can be learned without needing
a new plant (e.g. solvent development and some
aspects of absorber design, including packing)
Big prize is having technology suitable for
global deployment available up to 5 years earlier
(and well suited to retrofit too)
First tranche plants earlier (especially if
retrofits)
POST-COM ADD-ON PLANTS PATH TO ROLLOUT
Gibbins, J. and Chalmers, H. Preparing for global
rollout A developed country first
demonstration programme for rapid CCS deployment.
Energy Policy, 2008, 36(2), 501-507.
2015
2020
2025
13

• Two actions to get ready for CCS rollout
• Get through two learning cycles of CCS as
  quickly as possible plus all the other support
  activities
• Make all new fossil fuel plants capture ready
  and move towards replacing fossil fuels in
  buildings and transport with electricity (or
  hydrogen)

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Tilbury - 2x 800MW Capture ready- photo montage
(some details omitted)
Richard Hotchkiss, RWE npower RD, RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS IN CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE COMBUSTION DIVISION OF THE COAL RESEARCH
FORUM . 17 April 2007, http//www.coalresearchfor
um.org/pastmeetings.html
15
Tilbury - 2x 800MW Capture ready- photo montage
(some details omitted)
Richard Hotchkiss, RWE npower RD, RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS IN CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE COMBUSTION DIVISION OF THE COAL RESEARCH
FORUM . 17 April 2007, http//www.coalresearchfor
um.org/pastmeetings.html
16

• Summary
• Cumulative CO2 emissions are what matters
• Too much fossil fuel for the climate
• Extraction costs probably too low for renewables
  to beat fossil any time soon
• CCS electricity costs similar for pulverised coal
  and IGCC routes
• Two biggest emitters, USA and China, rely on CCS
  to commit to tackling climate change
• Dont think Type 1 CCS, for oil and gas
  production, is really tackling climate change
  need Type 2 and Type 3.
• Two learning cycles before CCS proven maybe 10
  years must get started as quickly as possible
• Meanwhile make all new fossil fuel plants capture
  ready and move towards replacing fossil fuels
  in buildings and transport with electricity (or
  hydrogen)

17

• Summary
• Cumulative CO2 emissions are what matters
• Too much fossil fuel for the climate
• Extraction costs probably too low for renewables
  to beat fossil any time soon
• CCS electricity costs similar for pulverised coal
  and IGCC routes
• Two biggest emitters, USA and China, rely on CCS
  to commit to tackling climate change
• Dont think Type 1 CCS, for oil and gas
  production, is really tackling climate change
  need Type 2 and Type 3.
• Two learning cycles before CCS proven maybe10
  years must get started as quickly as possible
• Meanwhile make all new fossil fuel plants capture
  ready and move towards replacing fossil fuels
  in buildings and transport with electricity (or
  hydrogen)