Education and Political Transformation in Brazil

1
Education and Political Transformation in Brazil

• CHALLENGES FOR THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
• Rio Branco Forum on Brazil
• Center for Latin American Studies
• University of Califoria, Berkeley
• November 4th, 2004

2
The mistake within the problem

• Two ways to look to the economy
• From inside
• From outside
• For decades wealth defined by GNP, investment in
  infrastructure, foreign savings, exports and
  domestic demand by wealthy income-concentrating
  class, state as the fostering engine.
• Now preventing return to political voluntarism
  and fiscal irresponsibility
• Giving up the other obsolete or unfair concepts

3
Challenges in the economy

• Three statements to support the new look to the
  economy
• Joan Robinson But Ricardo never saw the mistake
  was in the question and kept right on trying to
  eliminate mistakes in his answers
• Einstein We cant solve problems by using the
  same kind of thinking we used when we created
  them.
• Roosevelt instead to asking how to resume growth
  in order to crate jobs, asked how to create jobs
  in order to resume growth.

4
Challenges in the economy

• The main economic challenges in the world came
  from outside
• The discoveries
• The technological revolution
• The new deal

5
The failed challenge in Brazilian Economy

• In the 1870s only five or six big economies
• In the 1970s some others, but Brazil was among
  the promising ones to the near future.
• In the first decade of XXIth century Brazil lost
  its pace to many new come countries. Brazil lag
  behind regarding China, India, Portugal, Greece,
  Spain, Ireland, South Corea, Tawain, Malaysia,
• All of them made a difference, they invest in
  economy out of the economy, specially in
  EDUCATION, basic and high education and
• SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY.
• With that they disrupted the vicious circle of
  their poverty.

6
The vicious circle of Brazilian debts

• Poverty
• Income concentration
• Economy
• Finance
• Culture and knowledge
• Ecology
• Sovereignty
• Youth
• Model

7
The virtuous cycle of the debt payment

• Economic dynamics
• Health
• Education
• Productivity and savings
• Increase in investment
• Reduction of Brazil Risk
• Decency
• Cost of omission
• Complete Abolition and the Republic
• Model
• Youth

8
(No Transcript)
9
The Golden Curtain

• Economic Growth does not abolish poverty
• The income growth does not spread over the
  excluded people
• The income transfer is not enough to mitigate
  poverty
• More than unequality a Curtain cut poor from the
  rich people
• Brazil as a short scale of the global social
  apartheid

10
A new logic to define poverty
11
Social Shock

• Social policies as the only alternative for a
  social revolution in a global neoliberal world.

12
Inclusive legislation and social incentives

• Inclusive Laws
• Compulsory basic education
• Federalization of basic education, national
  minimum levels
• teachers wages and teachers skills
• equipments
• contents
• Educational responsibility law

13
Inclusive legislation and social incentives

• Social Incentives
• Bolsa-Escola
• Establishment of a minimum remuneration and
  increase of teachers average salary
• Teachers training and federal certification
• School equipment
• Universal water supply and sewage systems
• Poupança Escola (Savings-School) program
• Civil service
• Elimination of illiteracy
• Land reform
• Agro-industries
• Irrigation in the Northeast
• Micro credit
• Reform of the Brazilian university system
• Housing
• Unemployment compensation
• Home health care

14
The Leaps Forward

• Sociallly to come from 72th to 30th position in
  the UN Human Development Index, in 15 to 20 years
• Economically to have an increase on the economic
  rate of growth since the begin of the program,
  thanks to a kind of social keynesianism, or a
  social new deal, or as we prefer SOCIAL SHOCK

15
The Cost of a Social Shock

• Total Cost R 47.3 billion,(around US 16
  billion) 3.5 of domestic debt, 3 of GNP, 30 of
  yearly interest charges, 6 of the annual tax
  burden,
• The Net Cost R 12,5, discounting the tax return,
  the reduction on social costs, the increase on
  growth.

16
(No Transcript)
17
How to finance

• A linear cut of 2 on the 2005 budget costs.
• A National Independence Fund to be repaid with
  interest by the year 2022, the bicentenial of our
  Independence.

18
(No Transcript)