Vinod Thomas,

1
Evaluation for Stronger Results

• Vinod Thomas,
• Director-General, Evaluation
• Third International Roundtable Managing for
  Development Results, Hanoi
• February 6, 2007

2
Results in a World of Multiple Players
Aid Effectiveness
Source F. Bourguignon, Presentation at IEG
Meeting (October, 2006)
3
Differing Results at Project and Country Levels

• Project ratings show upward trend since the early
  1990s, reversing a long decline
• In one-third of cases, Country Assistance
  Strategy (CAS) outcome ratings were
  unsatisfactory when project ratings were
  satisfactory

Project and CAS Outcome Ratings () Project and CAS Outcome Ratings () Project and CAS Outcome Ratings ()
CAS project portfolio outcome CAS outcome ratings CAS outcome ratings
CAS project portfolio outcome Satisfactory Unsatisfactory
Satisfactory 56.0 33.3
Unsatisfactory 2.7 8.0
Source IEG databases and staff estimates, July 2006 Source IEG databases and staff estimates, July 2006 Source IEG databases and staff estimates, July 2006
4
Wide Variation in Results in Policy Areas

• Quality-Quantity disconnects Primary education
  support gave high priority to increasing
  enrollments, but less to learning.
• Donor disconnects In fragile states, donors
  often have not shared a common purpose, hence
  policy coherence has been hard to achieve.
• Policy disconnects In many countries benefits
  from trade liberalization have not been
  sustainable due to lack of complementary policies.

5
Evaluation Helps Track the Results Chain
6
Role of ME in Development Support

• Poverty reduction strategy papers and MDGs need
  ME systems.
• Programmatic lending relies on country systems to
  collect performance indicators and monitor and
  evaluate programs.
• Country ME capacity essential component of
  development communitys results-based agenda.
• Participatory approaches increase the need for
  country-level ME capacity.

7
How ME Help Track Results

• Enhance transparency and support accountability
  relationships.
• Support evidence-based policy-making in the
  national budget cycle and national planning.
• Support government agencies in service delivery
  and the management of staff.

8
ME Limitations

• One size does not fit all.
• Project-level and country-level objectives need
  to be aligned.
• Measuring results requires clearly defined,
  realistic objectives.
• Data manageability and quality crucial for
  measuring outcomes.
• ME systems alone cannot improve performance.

9
Challenges to Results-Oriented Evaluation

• With the emphasis shifting to programs, can ME
  address attribution of results as well as
  accountability?
• How does country capacity influence the design,
  implementation and utilization of ME?
• Has the results agenda increased ME capacity and
  harmonization within the development community?