Title: Approach to the
1Approach to the IW Environment
2Understanding the Environment
Approach the problem from the perspective of the
insurgent and population to help define
priorities and the balance of efforts. What is a
counterinsurgency? - What are we
countering? - What is Counterinsurgency vs.
Counterguerrilla warfare
Counterguerrilla
Counterinsurgency
3Mindset and the Full Spectrum of COIN
Counterguerrilla
Counterinsurgency
Countering Insurgents (e.g. Counter IED)
Counterguerrilla
- Short term - Reactive -
Tactical - Military
Versus
Counterinsurgency
Eliminating Root Causes (e.g. denying
insurgents passive/active support of the
population to lay in IEDs.
- Medium and long term - Proactive - Tactical
(with cumulative) - Military and political
4Mindset and the Full Spectrum of COIN
What is a counterinsurgency? - Countering
Insurgents - Countering the Root Causes
of the insurgency
Counterinsurgency
Counterguerrilla
Balanced Development
Balanced Development - Political Reform -
Economic Reform - Social Refrom Mobilization -
Manpower - Material Neutralization - Physical
Interdiction - Psychological Interdiction Securit
y - Population - Infrastructure Advising HN
(Combat Advisor) - Leadership - Training -
Equip/Admin/Logistics - Ethos/Professionalization
Balanced Development
Mobilization
Neutralization
Security
Mobilization
Advising HN (Combat Advisor)
The Full Spectrum of Counterinsurgency
Counterguerrilla
5How do we bridge the gap from DOCTRINE to
APPLICATION?
Versus
Know It
Know It
Get It
Size and Experience of the Force
63
Mindset / Perspective
2
1
7IPB in Counterinsurgency Overview
8Approaching the Problem COIN IPB
- Part I Operational Environment
- - AO/AI Study ASCOPEs (overlays)
- Part II Environment's Effects
- - Determine Root Causes of the Insurgency
- Part III Evaluate the Threat
- - 7 Dynamics (Leadership, Ideology, Objectives,
External Support, Environment and Geography,
Phases and Timing, Organization and Pattern - - Determine Strategy
- Part IV Threat Courses of Action Analysis
- - Determine and analyze insurgent MPCOA/MDCOA
(AKA COIN Center of Influence Analysis)
9IPB 1
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
10IPB 2
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
2
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or
specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I
11IPB 3
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
2
3
Assess the insurgents strategy and forecast his
MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize
and the enemys campaign plan and how he gains
passive/active support of the population)
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or
specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I
12The enemys Strategy and capabilities (IPB III)
to use Root Causes (IPB II) to specifically
target and leverage the human and physical
terrain (IPB I) to accomplish MD/MP COAs. In
short this is the enemys campaign plan.
IPB 4
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
4
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
2
3
Assess the insurgents strategy and forecast his
MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize
and the enemys campaign plan and how he gains
passive/active support of the population)
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or
specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I
13IPB
4
1
4
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
How ENEMY uses ISSUES to get PEOPLE
The PEOPLE
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
Their ISSUES
The ENEMY
2
3
2
3
14IPB 4
4
1
4
1
How ENEMY uses ISSUES to get PEOPLE
The PEOPLE
Their ISSUES
The ENEMY
2
3
2
3
15Begin to Develop Insurgent Campaign Plan
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Assess Strategy Forecast Operational OBJs
across
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Ineffective Government
Military
Political
COAs
COAs
16What
w/ Who
How
Begin to Develop Insurgent Campaign Plan
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Assess Strategy Forecast Operational OBJs
across
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Ineffective Government
17What
w/ Who
How
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
MDMP
MDMP
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Ineffective Government
18What
w/ Who
How
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Ineffective Government
19COIN IPB/Overlay helps with
Site selection of Combat Outposts
COP
Standardizes method to assist units, HN
security forces, coalition members, local
leaders, government agencies, PRTs, etc in
focusing on - Political Objective - Unity of
Effort - Legitimacy - Adaptability -
Perseverance
COP
COP
Overlapping sectors based on Operational
Environment
COP
I/O message and delivery method based on
Operational Environment, and Effects
COP
COP
COP
Greatly assists in cultural and situational
awareness (key to Mission success and Force
Protection).
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Addresses Effects (Root Causes) by the
Environment to forecast and deny Threat from
gaining active / passive support.
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Ineffective Government
Support med/long term plans and continuity to
insure sustainment from tour to tour and during
handoff to HN
20Questions?
21Demo Animation
KNOWING IT vs. GETTING IT
Task Using the Insurgency Dynamics the
animation demonstrates the insurgency shifting
strategy and phases following an election.
Forecast insurgent MP/MD COAs after the election.
Background Insurgents convinced aspect of the
population not to vote on the national elections.
Situation backfires since opposing groups voted
in great numbers and therefore received a greater
proportion of the power within the newly formed
government. The demo will show what this
insurgent group does following their setback.
Forecast some of the additional operational
goals you might see in your BCT/BN/ or Co area.
22Organization
Phases and Timing
External Support
Doctrinal Strategies
Operational Objectives
External Support
Phases and Timing
A list of some of the Insurgency Dynamics
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
AIF
AIF
Unity of Effort
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Unity of Effort
Political Objective
Perseverance
The demo uses the 5-imperatives of the Low
Intensity Environment as a standard measurement
of effectiveness to demonstrate improvement.
Adaptability
Note Although SASO superseded the LIC FM, these
tenets exist for the enemy
23LIC Imperatives
Unity of Effort Legitimacy Political
Objective Perseverance Adaptability
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
24LIC Imperatives
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
25Organization
Phases and Timing
External Support
Restructuring Guerrillas Auxiliary Cells Pol.
wing denounces Mil. Wing
Doctrinal Strategies
Operational Objectives
External Support
Phases and Timing
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
AIF
AIF
Unity of Effort
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
26Organization
External Support
Insurgent Political Wing receives External
Support boosts legitimacy
Doctrinal Strategies
Operational Objectives
Phases and Timing
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
AIF
AIF
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
27Organization
External Support
Transition to Subversive strategy to
undermined democratic process from within
Doctrinal Strategies
Operational Objectives
Phases and Timing
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
AIF
AIF
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
28Organization
External Support
Political Mobilization e.g. - Vote against
Referendum
Doctrinal Strategies
Operational Objectives
Phases and Timing
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
AIF
Insurgents
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Perseverance
Adaptability
29Organization
External Support
Phases I stressed to reorganize and allow for
Political Wing to Negotiate
Doctrinal Strategies
Operational Objectives
Phases and Timing
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Insurgents
Insurgents
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
Adaptability
30Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
31Political Process Elections
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
32Political Process Elections
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
33Political Process Elections
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
34Political Process Elections
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
35Political Elections
Process
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
36Political Process Elections
Improved Post-Election
Insurgents
Pre-Election
Unity of Effort
Legitimacy
Political Objective
Perseverance
Adaptability
37Forecast
Overall Assessment Insurgency is shifting from
Protracted to the Subversive strategy and from
Phase II to Phase I Note Although the
Protracted and Subversive strategies are both
advanced and stable they are vulnerable while
they shift. Additionally insurgencies are
vulnerable while they shift Phases. The
strategy and phase shift represents a fracture
point and overall weakness. During which its
members are exposed and at risk and their actions
are more predictable during the shift.
38Forecast
Political Build/strengthen political wing -
Meet local wealthy and educated ex-Baathist
leaders and Generals - Assassinate local
leaders - Make comms with facilitators from
Syria - Increase I/O campaign designed to rally
civilian leaders to meet with insurgent political
wing Military Drop to Phase I to consolidate
and reorganize - Assassinate local leaders -
Increase effort to infiltrate police and military
39Forecast
Socially - Reduce terrorism - Increase
pressure on local tribal and religious
leaders Economically - Increase attacks on key
infrastructure 1. Pressures friendly forces
to meet and therefore recognize insurgent
political wing 2. Give guerrillas something to
do to insure they dont split due to tactical
pause
40Concept
Issue There are three basic steps to
institutionalize conventional forces to
successfully conduct unconventional type
operations against an irregular enemy in
cooperation with a HN government and population.
1) Education of doctrine, theories,
principles, terms, etc 2) Indoctrination of
the counterinsurgency mindset 3) Implementing
tools that bridge the gap between doctrine (step
1) to application in the context of (step 2).
41Step 1
Doctrine, principles, theories Provided advice
and assisted on FM 3-24 Writing the USA/USMC
COIN Small Unit Leaders Handbook Professional
Reading Military Review Joint
FMs Experiences CALL Lessons
learned Interoperability Training COIN Master
course Professional Military Education
42Step 2
Indoctrination of the counterinsurgency
mindset Focusing the COIN mindset needs a
holistic though orchestrated methodology. This
mindset is broken down to Key Themes / Maxims
that make up this warfighting philosophy. These
Key Themes are purposely woven into the
workshops, Combat Advisor training, leadership
courses, LTPs and their CTCs, Officer/NCO
education centers, interagency conferences, COIN
seminars etc. This is accomplished by repeatedly
reintroducing the themes from a full range of
perspectives and topics which in-turn inculcates
and reinforces the mindset.
43Key Themes
44Key Themes
- Everything by, with, and through the HN
- Dismount, dismount, dismount!
- In COIN civilians are not Obstacles but Key
Terrain - "Mission first Men always." In COIN that
translates to "Protecting Civilians first Force
Protection always." Safeguarding the people is
always an essential task in counterinsurgency. - If the local population perceives the coalition
is there to protect them, they will provide
intelligence, information and deny insurgents
active/passive support. - Cultural awareness Situational awareness
Force Protection and Mission accomplishment
Depends on level of interoperability and
interaction with civilians - Countering insurgents and counter IED is
counterguerrilla (kinetic) operations and only
one aspect of COIN. Counterinsurgency is
eliminating the root causes of the insurgency and
therefore denying the enemy the passive/active
support to emplace IEDs.
45Key Themes
- The three Root Causes are the same for all
insurgencies the specifics are always unique.
To conduct COIN we must learn what they are
through the HN. (e.g. El Salvador - Land reform,
American Revolution Political voice, liberty,
religious freedom, Sadrs Shite Theocracy
(opposite of religious freedom) - The enemy uses strategies and apply sources of
power differently. Learning insurgent strategies
and perspective as key to entering their decision
cycle. - Understanding insurgents operational goals
leads to assessment. Enemy TTPs should be used
to confirm assessments not used to build them - No operation without I/O.
- Enemy I/O is intelligence.
- By applying COIN doctrine once we see the root
causes can prevent the growth of an armed
insurgency - Use lines of operation as a metric our
initiatives should be based on eliminating the
root causes and forecasted enemy initiatives by
understanding nature of the people and strategy
of the enemy.
46Key Themes
- Clear, Hold, Build is the most successful
method of eliminating the root causes of an
insurgency - Full-spectrum COIN fundamentals must be done
simultaneously for the short, medium, and
long-term - Enable and train the HN to take the lead
- FID is the main effort and adds a great deal to
combat power - Refine staff procedures for FID/COIN
- Combat Advisors are among the main efforts.
Man, equip, and support them with your best. (If
it doesnt hurt you didnt give them the right
people and assets). - Combat Advisors are not LNOs partnering units
must train, plan, fight, and socialize together. - Half of your unit are experts in language,
culture, religion, history, I/O, HUMINT, and the
people. They are your soldiers take care of
them (ref HN partner unit). - US Forces are masters at evaluating Performance
HN are masters at evaluating Effects
47Key Themes
- Push assets down to the lowest level
- Your interpreter/cultural advisor is a weapon
system and an extension of you. Involve him in
everything you do to learn. (eat, sleep,
socialize, rehearsals, meetings, etc).
Miscommunication is common between different
languages/cultures and the cause of many
conflicts (large and small). - Make the HN your brother-in-arms in everyway.
When he calls you his brother and means it then
training, retention, morale, and performance all
improve while infiltration and OPSEC are
minimized - Hearts and Minds does not mean liking us, but
instead it is when the people are buying into
their new system of government, legitimacy of HN
security forces and authorities, embracing
economic reform, rule of law, etc. Mind is the
short term Heart is the long term. - Conventional wisdom seldom works in an
unconventional environment. Counterinsurgency
operations are paradoxical. Confirm with HN,
interpreters, doctrine and doctrinal tools.
48Key Themes
- Successful unity of effort means approaching all
non US military as foreign (HN security forces,
local leaders, State Dept, Coalition, etc). To
understand them use rapport building and
cross-cultural communication skills. e.g. Learn
to speak State Department. - Scholarship, professional development, and
experience is a necessary step in developing COIN
warriors - While building HN leaders Officers/NCO Corps
- 1)Train NCOs to be capable leaders and take
charge. - 2) Convince unit leaders to insist junior
officers give NCOs responsibility without
repercussions (no zero defect). - COIN experts can only master doctrine,
historical lessons, tools, and mindset. Every
situation has specifics that are unique that
requires us to become students again. - Keep an open mind
49Themes Integration Matrix
Theme / Class
50Step 3
Implementation of tools that bridge doctrine
(step 1) to application in the context of step 2.
The provide methodology, direction, and
structure to apply doctrine. Tools are built
into training programs, scenarios/role playing
PEs, COIN Small Unit Leaders Guide, published
papers, COIN Master and Leadership Workshops,
etc.
51Step 3
These include - Operational Environment (Tool
AO/AI COIN Overlay, ASCOPEs worksheet and
overlays) - Battlefield Effects (Tool - Root
Cause (of the insurgency) Study) - Threat
Analysis (Tool - Insurgent Dynamics/Strategy
Analysis) - Determine Threat COA (Tool - COIN
Center of Influence Analysis) - Clear, Hold,
Build Planning and Assessment tool - Negotiations
Worksheet - I/O Worksheet - Combined (US/HN) MDMP
Guide - Transition Team Roles and
Responsibilities - Tactical Questioning Guide -
COIN Fundamentals Metrics - Formatted Target
Package
52IPB 1
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
53IPB 2
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
2
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or
specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I
54IPB 3
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
2
3
Assess the insurgents strategy and forecast his
MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize
and the enemys campaign plan and how he gains
passive/active support of the population)
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or
specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I
55The enemys Strategy and capabilities (IPB III)
to use Root Causes (IPB II) to specifically
target and leverage the human and physical
terrain (IPB I) to accomplish MD/MP COAs. In
short this is the enemys campaign plan.
IPB 4
Visualize the specific groups that defines the
limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical
and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay).
Identify each specific community or group.
4
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
2
3
Assess the insurgents strategy and forecast his
MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize
and the enemys campaign plan and how he gains
passive/active support of the population)
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or
specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I
56IPB 4
4
1
4
1
Determine Threat Courses of Action
Define the Operational Environment
How ENEMY uses ISSUES to get PEOPLE
The PEOPLE
Describe the Environment's Effects
Evaluate the Threat
Their ISSUES
The ENEMY
2
3
2
3
57IPB 4
4
1
4
1
How ENEMY uses ISSUES to get PEOPLE
The PEOPLE
Their ISSUES
The ENEMY
2
3
2
3
58Begin to Develop Insurgent Campaign Plan
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Assess Strategy Forecast Operational OBJs
across
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Lack Government Control
Military
Political
COAs
COAs
59What
w/ Who
How
Begin to Develop Insurgent Campaign Plan
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Assess Strategy Forecast Operational OBJs
across
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Lack Government Control
60What
w/ Who
How
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
MDMP
MDMP
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Lack Government Control
61What
w/ Who
How
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
MDMP
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Lack Government Control
62COIN IPB/Overlay helps with
Site selection of Combat Outposts
JSS
Standardizes method to assist units, HN
security forces, coalition members, local
leaders, government agencies, PRTs, etc in
focusing on - Political Objective - Unity of
Effort - Legitimacy - Adaptability -
Perseverance
JSS
JSS
Overlapping sectors based on Operational
Environment
JSS
I/O message and delivery method based on
Operational Environment, and Effects
JSS
JSS
JSS
Greatly assists in cultural and situational
awareness (key to Mission success and Force
Protection).
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Addresses Effects (Root Causes) by the
Environment to forecast and deny Threat from
gaining active / passive support.
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Lack Government Control
Support med/long term plans and continuity to
insure sustainment from tour to tour and during
handoff to HN
63COIN IPB/Overlay helps with
JSS
Uses standard conventional framework (4 x steps
IPB) but in a COIN environment. Consistency
and standardizing basic tools and mindset within
the framework of Doctrine outweighs each
centers, seminar, units, or schools individual
method If we all use these tools greatly
facilitates long-term sustainment which is vital
in a protracted struggle
JSS
JSS
JSS
JSS
JSS
JSS
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
3 x Root Causes
Root Causes 1. Vulnerable Population 2.
Lack of Leadership 3. Lack Government Control