The Implications of Convergence on Spectrum Management

1
The Implications of Convergenceon Spectrum
Management
Mike Goddard Director, Spectrum and
International Policy Radiocommunications
Agency, UK
2
Convergence

• The merging of broadcasting, telecommunications
  and computing
• The convergence of the underlying technologies
  for delivering information, communication and
  entertainment to a wide range of users

3
Spectrum Managers need to plan ahead but cannot
predict the future

• External study commissioned by the UK - Mapping
  the Future of Convergence of Spectrum
  Management
• Study based on Future Mapping, developing four
  scenarios for 2010 (not predictions)
• Assessment of implications for spectrum
  management for each scenario

4
Why Scenarios?

• Addressing uncertainty
• Accelerating change in technologies, markets
• Challenging conventional wisdom
• Asking What if?
• Stimulating strategic thinking
• Broader picture of technological, political,
  economic, environmental, social trends

5
Forecasts vs Scenarios
2010

• Conventional wisdom constrainsfuture thinking to
  linear extrapolation of present
• Uncertainty dealt with bychanging forecast 10

10
-
-10

• We dont know the future
• We can make a forecast
• But it will probably be wrong!

2000
6
The Future Can Be Quite Different From What We
Expect

• Complex interaction of political, economic,
  social, technological influences
• Totally different shape from present!

7
Scenarios are not ...

• Predictions they are alternative visions of
  future
• Choices there is no need to choose between
  scenarios
• We imagine the future not to predict it but to
  understand it and prepare for it

8
Mapping the Future four very different visions
(1)

• A) Internet Convergence
• Internet central to everyday life shaking up
  value chains - strong brands highly prized
• Multiple access platforms, user-friendly
  interfaces
• B) Digital Islands
• Confused consumers seek refuge in trusted walled
  gardens
• DTV popular, cable thrives

9
Mapping the Future four very different visions
(2)

• C) Total Mobility
• Mobile connectivity key, wide range of service
  providers, some virtual
• WLANs, Bluetooth, frequency-agile technology
• D) Broadband Revolution
• Bandwidth is king, wireless cant compete
• electronic-optical interface close to users,
  wireless links short, high bandwidth

10
Scenarios - delivery mechanisms

• Delivery mechanism
• IP networks using open standards
• Proprietary closed networks
• Mobile terminal devices
• Broadband optical networks
• (Wireless a poor substitute)

• Title
• A - Internet Convergence
• B - Digital Islands
• C - Total Mobility
• D - Broadband Revolution

11
Picture is Complex

• Not straightforward either/or situation
• End-states can co-exist and interact
• Dominance of end-states likely to shift over time
• But some common conclusions emerge

12
Specific conclusions applicable to Spectrum
Management

• Need dynamic, responsive, flexible spectrum
  management to respond to rapid, unpredictable
  change
• Increase use of market-based spectrum management
  tools such as auctions and trading
• More spectrum needed for fixed and mobile
  services
• Seek modifications to ITU service definitions so
  that nature of transmissions rather than content
  determine use made of frequency bands

13
Flexible allocations

• More general, less specific allocations
• Introduction of spectrum trading
• Unregulated/lightly regulated blocks of spectrum

14
More spectrum needed for

• Wide area mobile networks
• Fixed, including fixed wireless access
• Local area networks

• Being met by IMT-2000 decisions
• Existing bands, higher frequencies (gt30 GHz) and
  especially 40 GHz
• 2.5 and 5 GHz, plus review of allocations, 2 - 6
  GHz

15
Service definitions

• Why do we allocate specific bands to specific
  services ?
• Are the international service definitions still
  valid ?
• Do we obey them ?
• What would we do if we could start afresh ?

16
Basic Assumptions

• Convergence impacts mainly on broadcasting, fixed
  and mobile
• Little impact on other services
• Need different allocations for incompatible
  services
• Can share compatible services

17
Example

• Fixed service sharing with fixed-satellite
  service
• By definition, terminal stations in fixed service
  are at specified fixed points
• Hence the two services can co-exist using
  frequency coordination

18
Example (continued)

• Many new fixed services are not point-to-point
  but point-to-multipoint
• Similarly, in the fixed-satellite service, VSAT
  networks or direct-to-home services may have
  terminals anywhere within a specified area
• Do these applications meet the strict definition
  of the fixed service?
• Do the usual sharing assumptions apply?

19
One possible alternative approach (intended to
initiate debate, not a formal proposal)

• Sub-divide the fixed definition into
• a) traditional fixed (terminal at specified
  position)
• b) Point-to-multipoint (fixed node but
  terminals anywhere within a specified
  area)
• Mobile service definition unchanged
• Broadcasting could be covered by fixed
  point-to-multipoint (thus facilitating
  interactive broadcasting)

20
Review of definitions - objectives

• Take account of technical and operational
  developments
• Provide flexibility for future developments while
  meeting spectrum management objectives
• Evaluate the impact on individual allocations
• Provide general allocations at global level -
  more detail regionally or nationally

21
Summary

• Convergence will have major impact on spectrum
  management
• Additional spectrum will be needed for some
  services
• Allocations and licensing must provide
  flexibility
• Traditional service definitions will need to be
  reviewed
• The debate must be widened internationally, and
  especially in the ITU