Adaptation Baselines Through V

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Adaptation Baselines Through VA Assessments

• Prof. Helmy Eid
• Climate Change Experts
• (SWERI) ARC
• Egypt
• Material for Montreal Workshop 2001

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ADAPTATION BASELINES General Recommendations
on Adaptation Baselines - Baseline
(reference). The baseline is any datum against
which change is measured. It might be a
current baseline, in which case it
represents observable, present-day conditions.
  - It also might be a future
baseline, which is a projected future set of
conditions, excluding the driving factor of
interest.   - Alternative
interpretations of reference conditions can give
rise to multiple baselines.  
Adaptation baseline of policies and measures
could be defined as the set of policies and
measures already taken by various concerned
authorities, and NGOs within the frame of the
precautionary principle, to help
agriculture, water resources and demand, human
health and coastal zones as well as
minimize adverse impacts of warming and sea
level rise.
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It is recommended that the VA assessments
need to develop dataset and
baseline, and this could be done by identifying
data needs and availability
and establishing dataset and baselines
as follows   Identify
climatological and sea-level rise that are
relevant to studied method(s).  
Identify non-climatic data required
for method development,
calibration and testing (e.g. river flow data,
maps of crop
distribution), for methods application (e.g. soil
data, beach profile
data, country GDP), and any additional data
(e.g. population density
statistics).   Assess availability
of data sources, forms, problems of
obtaining data (cost,
accessibility, status of data,
documentation, compatibility and
uncertainty)   Evaluate available
data to establish their stability for
selected methods by determining
time resolution,
completeness of records, quality, sites number
and their spatial
distribution (for spatial interpolations).
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Develop the baseline climate dataset  
Identify stations with a good length of
record (ideally 30 years), check data for
errors, missing data, clean data,
availability at appropriate time resolution,
spatial or temporal interpolation.
  - Daily data can be derived from
monthly values by simple
interpolation or using a weather generators.
  - Spatial datasets can be
developed by tools available (GIS,
and UNUSPLIN).   Additional
non-climatic data may be required for method
development (calibration and application,
specific data relating to sector and
exposure unit will be required (observed
crop phenology and yield, soil data, river
discharge, health statistics, historical changes
in relative sea- level.
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Interpret results and Synthesis
A range of climatic and non-climatic data may be
required geographical, technological,
managerial, legislative, economic,
social and political.   Interpret data to
describe baselines Having developed a good
quality datasets to complete the
assessment, it is necessary to interpret data for
describing climatic and non-climatic
baselines, which - Need to meet the
specific requirements of sector and exposure
unit. - Need to full the
requirements of the entire assessment including
cross-sectoral dependencies.  
In any adaptation plan, a survey of adaptation
baseline policies, measures,
environmental conditions, available technical
tools and past experience is necessary
to ensure suitability of the adaptation
measure to be taken.   It could be
recommended that a strategic environmental impact
assessment must be carried out for any
policy of adaptation and an
environmental impact assessment of any measure.
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The use of linked model approach uses GCM
results and results from simple climate
models to obtain regional projections of climate
change. (SCENGEN, CLIMPACTS VANDACLIM) are
suitable for a multiple sectors impact
assessment and allow the user to explore a wide
range of uncertainty and introduce a time
dimension.   It is recommended to assess
availability of input data for an RCM to
improve climate change scenarios.   The use
of the process-based models (Simulation models
(e.g. DSSAT, COTTAM, SORKAM, and CROPSYST)
is more efficient in the VA assessments
especially in the agricultural sector.
  It could be recommended that the use of
the cost-benefit models and the General
equilibrium models (Basic Linked System BLS) as
socioeconomic models is more efficient in
the VA assessments especially in the
agricultural sector. Recardian (Cross sectional)
Model could be used also.   Adaptation
baselines could be established in the
agriculture, water resources, coastal
zones and human health sectors through the
experiences detected from the general current
presentation on VA methodologies.
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Improving Assessments of Impacts,
Vulnerability and Adaptation The
following are only three from high priorities for
narrowing gaps between current knowledge
and policymaking needs (The IPCC WG II
report). - Quantitative assessment of
the sensitivity adaptive capacity and
vulnerability of natural and human systems to
climate change. - Assessment of
opportunities to include scientific information
on impacts, vulnerability, and
adaptation in decision-making processes. -
Improvement of systems and methods for long
term monitoring and understanding. Can you add
more to the list? The Egyptian VA
assessment study on the agricultural sector can
be followed in the near countries with
similar conditions (an outline for the
case study is available in the current
presentation) Do you want to see?
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Steps of Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
Socio-economic scenario
Experiments/ Technology options
Develop scenarios
MAGICC
Climatic Data in DSSATSModel Format
Select GCM
SCENGEN
DSSAT
Impact Assessment
Adaptation Options
Monthly Climatic Data
Daily Climatic Data
CLIMATE DATA GENERATOR
Other Simulation models developed in Crystal Ball
Experiments/ Technology options
Socio-economic scenario
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