BEAs Regional Strategic Plan: Progress in the Regional Program

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BEAs Regional Strategic Plan Progress in the
Regional Program

• Rob Brown
• Chief, Regional Economic Measurement Division,
  BEA
• robert.brown_at_bea.gov
• AUBER Conference Tucson, Arizona
• October 17, 2004

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Todays Presentation

• What have we done in the past year?
• What will we do in the next year?
• What are our plans for the long term?

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Comprehensive Revision of State and Local Area
Personal Income

• New definitions and classifications
• Supplements to wages
• More consistency with international guidelines
• New treatment of banking and insurance services
• Indian tribal governments
• New statistics incorporated
• Decennial census data incorporated

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Comprehensive Revision of State and Local Area
Personal Income (cont.)

• New geography
• Metropolitan statistical areas, Micropolitan
  statistical areas, Combined statistical areas,
  Metropolitan divisions
• From 318 to 934 metro/micro areas presented
• 1969-2002 all on same definition
• New presentation of the estimates--new tables
• SA04 summary statistics for entire time period
• SA06 state compensation by industry 1998 forward
• Faster release after NIPAs

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Accelerated Release of State Personal Income

• Quarterly state personal income now released 3
  months after end of quarter
• Almost all sources still available for use in the
  estimates
• ES-202 wages incorporated into national and state
  for the revised estimates
• Annual and quarterly state estimates now always
  consistent
• Revised quarters released with annuals

6
New Published Research

• Reliability of State Personal Income
• Published December 2003 Survey of Current
  Business
• BEA Advisory Committee presentations May 14, 2004
• At www.bea.gov/bea/about/advisory.htm
• BEA Regional Accounts Research Underway
• Comparing Alternative Measures of Income
• Pensions and Health Insurance
• FESAC Presentation December 14, 2004
• Alternative Measures of Household Income BEA
  Personal Income, CPS Money Income and Beyond by
  John Ruser, Adrienne Pilot, and Charles Nelson

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RIMS II Developments

• Incorporated 1997 national benchmark I-O
• Developed a Java-based viewer
• Set up RIMS II user workshops
• First one October 29

8
GSP Developments

• Improve consistency of BEAs accounts
• Completed research and developed procedures to
  make taxes on production and imports more
  consistent across regional, national, and
  industry accounts
• Completed research and developed procedures for
  accelerating GSP

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Next Years Scheduled Improvements

• November 2004--New BEA Economic Areas
• December 2004
• Comprehensive revision of GSP 1977-2002
• NAICS for 1998-2002
• Accelerated total GSP estimates for 2003
• 6 month acceleration
• Additional one week acceleration of quarterly
  state personal income
• 1929-68 state personal income comprehensive
  revision completed

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Next Years Scheduled Improvements

• January 2005--County compensation by subsector
  for 2003
• For the first time, county industry detail will
  be available 13 months after end of year
• June 2005--Detailed GSP for 2003 and total GSP
  for 2004
• 12 month acceleration in total GSP

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Long Term Research Projects

• Accelerated metropolitan area personal income
• Within 9 months of end of year
• Prototype estimates in FY 2006
• Metropolitan area disposable personal income
• FY 2007, if feasible
• Gross metro product
• FY 2007, if feasible
• Historical GSP estimates for 1963-77
• FY 2006, if feasible

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Long Term Research Projects

• Web-based RIMS II ordering and estimate delivery
• FY 2006
• Personal income mapping
• Extend NAICS estimates back to earlier years for
  personal income and GSP
• Accelerated county estimates of personal income
• 10 months after the end of the year
• Only if funded

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Long Term Research Projects

• Improve RIMS multipliers
• Develop inter-area price measures
• Using CPI research database
• Explore use of new source data
• IRS information returns
• Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS)
• Develop alternative measures/definitions of
  income by state that better meet user needs to
• Measure spending capacity
• Track tax base

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Access to BEA Data

• www.bea.gov