The New Europe

1
The New Europe

• Whats Next?

2
Where is Europe Going?

• Superstate?
• The EU versus the US?

OR

• Just another experiment?

3
Why Integration?

• Economic interdependence reduces likelihood of
  conflict
• Gains from peace outweigh gains from conflict
• Collaboration leads to communication and mutual
  understanding
• Economic integration can demand political,
  policy, legal, and social integration
• Assumes common interests and perspectives!

4
A Brief History

• 1951 European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC)
• Material impossibility of war
• 1952 Common Defense and Political Communities
  (EDC and EPC)
• Too far, too fast
• 1957 Treaties of Rome
• European Economic Community (EEC)
• Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
• Euratom National Security (and France)

5
The European Common Market

• 1986 Single European Act
• The Common Market
• Competitiveness
• Europe 1992
• Economic integration
• Monetary Union and the Euro
• 1992 Maastricht Treaty

6
Maastricht and Beyond

• Three Pillars
• European Community
• Common Foreign and Security Policy
• Justice and Home Affairs
• Deepening Integration
• Progress towards economic, monetary, and
  political union
• The EU Constitution
• Widening Integration
• EU Expansion

7
The New Europe

• Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
  Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, and
  Slovenia (2004), Romania and Bulgaria (2007)
• The Future?
• Turkey, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia,
  Montenegro, Macedonia, and Albania

8
What Does New Europe Mean?

• New Economies
• Catching up, but still far behind Old Europe
• 9,831 per-capita GDP compared to 39,700
• Competitive
• Emigration of excess workforce
• New Democracies
• Uncertain commitment
• New Perspectives
• Pro-US, Pro-Expansion?
• Moving East?

9
Why the EU?

• Gains From Economic Integration
• Access to European markets
• EU aid and subsidies
• Political Cover
• Counterweight to Russian Federation
• Reform, conditionality and lock-in
• 1993 Copenhagen Criteria

10
Areas of Conflict

• Economics and Trade
• Competition with Old Europe
• Emigration to Old Europe
• Politics and Policy
• Competing influences
• The New Europe in EU politics
• Security
• Terrorism and crime

11
Economic Issues

• Economic Competition
• New Europe can lure investment with lower taxes
  and wages
• Emigration
• Polish Plumber problem cheap labor drives down
  wages in E-15
• Brain drain and the Irish disease
• New Europe loses the young and capable
• Marginalization in Western Europe

12
Politics and Policy

• Is New Europe committed to being European?
• Pro-US or pro-EU?
• Can free migration disrupt or dilute Old European
  states?
• Are New Europeans sufficiently European?
• What ensures that democracy and free markets will
  continue in the long run?
• Reform fatigue
• Lustration, democracy, and civil liberties

13
Security

• What impact will New European access have on the
  EU?
• The Schengen Area and security
• Crime and trafficking
• Terrorism
• How does the E-15 see the world?

14
Can Expansion Work?

• What is expansion supposed to do?
• Security Communities and Perpetual Peace
• Economic growth and stability
• European Power
• How well does it do this?
• Common perspectives and interests?
• Long-term performance
• Stability and Survival?

15
Competing Perspectives

• Realist
• States are driven by interests and will only
  cooperate so long as it benefits them
• Neoliberal
• States learn that cooperation results in gains
  and are willing to compromise to achieve these
  gains
• Constructivist
• Through cooperation states learn to identify
  with common values and interests

16
Realism and the EU

• The EU only reflects the interests of its most
  powerful members
• The EU only survives because it benefits these
  states
• If something goes wrong (currency crisis,
  disaster, etc), states will cut their losses and
  abandon the EU

17
Neoliberalism and the EU

• The EU meets the interests of member states more
  effectively than they could on their own
• Trade
• Policy coordination
• Disruptions will encourage cooperative resolution
  rather than fragmentation
• Long-term gains v. short-term losses
• Ineffective responses will undermine EU

18
Constructivism and the EU

• Membership in the EU changes the perspectives and
  interests of individual policy-makers and leaders
• Socialization leads states to perceive their
  interests as being in-line with the EU
• States adapt policies and domestic institutions
  to support and enhance continued membership
• Common identities and perspectives develop and
  cement Union in face of crises

19
How Does New Europe Fit In?

• Can socialization overcome differences between
  E-15 and E-10?
• Are there limits to how well EU policies can meet
  the needs of member states?
• How far are states willing to go towards
  integration?
• What role will the U.S. and the Russian
  Federation play?