THE AVIATION WEATHER PROGRAM AT THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

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AVIATION WEATHER CENTER NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
THE AVIATION WEATHER PROGRAM AT THE AVIATION
WEATHER CENTER GULF OF MEXICO WORKING GROUP
MEETING FEBRUARY 1, 2000 HOUSTON, TX
N C E P
WHERE AMERICAS CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN
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OPERATIONS BRANCH Vision Transition to future
enroute forecasting activities and
products. Current formats may be sustained until
customers modernize
Current Forecaster Role

• Alphanumeric messages - turbulence, icing,
  convection, ceiling/visibility SIGMETs,
  Convective SIGMETs, AIRMETs, Area Forecasts
• Graphic depiction of SIGWX - fronts, jets,
  convection, freezing levels, etc
• Global High Level SIGWX forecasts, Low Level
  SIGWX forecasts

Future Forecaster Role

• Near Term
• Graphic Products
• Enhanced Global SIGWX

• Long Term
• Gridded Products
• Gridded TAF Guidance

Major Efforts

• Training of 36 forecasters in advanced systems,
  forecast generation techniques and new science
• Transition to Team Forecast Process

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3 Forecasters issue Area Forecasts, AIRMETS,
SIGMETS
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MWO KKCI
MWO KKCI
FACA Responsibility Outlined in Red
MWO KKCI
MWO KKCI
MWO KKCI
Figure 1 MWO Areas of Responsibility for AWC
listed as KKCI, FACA Area Outlined in Red
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MWO KKCI
MWO KKCI
Figure 2 MWO Area of Responsibility for AWC
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OFAGX
Figure 3 OFAGX Responsibility for AWC
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MIA FA
DFW FA
FACA
OFAGX
Figure 5 A comparison of the Domestic Area
Forecast Areas, the OFAGX and the FACA
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TODAYS FORECASTER PROCESS

• Individual Ownership Of A Product
• Single Alphanumeric Bulletins
• Minimum Of Coordination And Interaction With
  Other Forecasters During Analytical Phase Of
  Production
• Leads To Inefficiencies In Process
• Same Analytical Tasks Accomplished
• Redundant Composition And Distribution
• Individual Nature Of Products
• Potential For Large Differences In Description Of
  Attributes From Product To Product
• Differences Lead To Misinterpretation

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TODAYS FORECASTER PROCESS continued

• INDIVIDUAL NATURE OF FORECAST PROCESS DOES NOT
  FIT INTO THIS ERA OF SHRINKING RESOURCES AND
  INCREASING DEMANDS FOR HIGHER ACCURACY AND
  RESOLUTION

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GOAL AT THE AWC

• Generate Products Collaboratively And
• Eliminate Inefficiencies In Production
• Eliminate Inconsistencies In Products

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ICAO AREAS TO BE DONE BY UNITED STATES
1998
1999
ADDITIONALLY, TWO PS OVER THE NORTH POLE, ONE PS
OVER THE SOUTH POLE
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Figure 6 ICAO Mercator charts prepared four
times a day by the AWC Global Graphics Unit
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Figure 7 ICAO Polar Stereographic Areas prepared
by the Global Graphic Unit
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Figure 8 ICAO Area J prepared by the Global
Graphics Unit
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EXAMPLE OF HIGH LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART
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EXAMPLE OF A LOW LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART
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3 Forecasters issue Area Forecasts, AIRMETS,
SIGMETS
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AIRMET SIERRA UPDT 3 FOR IFR AND MTN OBSCN VALID
UNTIL 072100 . AIRMET IFR...TX FROM ADM TO TXK TO
PSX TO BRO TO 80W BRO TO LRD TO SJT TO ADM OCNL
CIGS/VIS BLW OVC010/3SM IN CLDS..PCPN AND BR.
CONDS CONTG BYD 21Z THRU 03Z. .
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• Forecasters Historically Had Been Able To
  Coordinate Descriptions Of Weather Phenomena
  Along Predetermined Geographical Boundaries
• New Work Could Not Add Significant Production
  Time With Resolution Of Inconsistencies And
  Assimilation Of Work Produced By The
  Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
• Issuance Of Final Products For Facsimile
  Transmission Had To Be Transparent To User

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THREE FORECASTERS AND THE HPC INVOLVED IN
FORECAST PRODUCTION
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LOW LEVEL CHART AS SHIPPED TO USER
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• Weather Production Inefficiencies And
  Inconsistencies In Products Used For Air
  Traffic Management Decisions Often Compound
  Operational Problems
• Thunderstorms Represent The Single Most
  Disruptive Weather Phenomenon In The
  Operations Of The National Airspace System
• Forecasts Of Thunderstorms Produced Must Have
  A High Degree Of Consistency Among Producers To
  Limit The Degree Of Uncertainty Among Users As
  To Key Decision Factors

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• FAA Asked AWC To Become The Focus For A
  Collaborative Convective Forecast Product To
  Be Used In Strategic Routing And Scheduling
  Decisions
• Up To 25 Government And Airline Forecasts
  Could Be Used To Produce A Cohesive Product
• Telephone Or Video Conference Ruled Out As
  Unacceptable Since
• Typically Chaotic
• Difficult To Document
• Imperfect Understanding Where Highly
  Technical Subjects Are Considered

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Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
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• Final Report Reflects Success Of
  Collaboration Even Though There Was No Marked
  Improvement In Accuracy Of The Forecasts
• FAA Indicates The Perceptions Of Success Had
  More To Do With Consistency Of Products With
  All Players Buying Into Final Solution

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LOW LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART PRODUCED BY AAWU
HIGH LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART PRODUCED BY AWC
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• Increased Productivity At The AWC
• Much Wider Application As Capabilities Are
  Enhanced
• Internet Technology Is Very Viable For
  Collaborative And Consensus Based Weather
  Information Products
• AWC Expects To Revolutionize Its Production
  Capability Over The Next Few Years
• Sufficient Investment Is A Necessity For
  Further Development Of Technology And Its
  Applications

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AWC Home Page Soon to be merged with ADDS
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Meteorological Impact Statement (MIS) 31 Jan 2000
- 131031 UTC Houston ARTCC (KZHU) ZHU MIS 01
VALID 311305-312115 ...FOR ATC PLANNING
PURPOSES ONLY... ZHU AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
OCNL LGT-MDT TURBC ABV FL200 BYD 21Z DUE TO
JTSTR. OCNL LGT-MDT RIME/MXD ICGIC 150-FL300 BYD
21Z. ZHU E LRD-SJI LN/ADJ CSTL WTRS ISOLD-WDLY
SCT SHRA BYD 21Z. VRBL-LTL MOVMT TX PTN/MOVG EWD
30-40KTS LA-AL PTN. TOPS 100-FL200. MORE NMRS
ALG EXTRM CST AND OVR CSTL WTRS. ZHU
GLFMEX ISOLD-WDLY SCT TS/SHRA PSBL BYD 21Z. MAX
TOPS FL350-450. MOVG EWD 30-40KTS. DW
Meteorological Impact Statement
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Product Distribution 1. IFFDP
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Communications AWC.to.CUSTOMER
AWC
END USER
DELIVERY
Production
Fax Back
24 HOUR HELP Desk
Product
877 Toll Free Service
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Product Distribution 2. INTERNET
IMPROVING AND MERGING
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Cooperative roles of operations and research
Products
Research

• FSL
• NCAR
• Universities
• Lincoln Labs
• FAA Tech Center

• Clients
• FAA Ops.
• Air Transportation
• Regional
• Business
• General Aviation

User Feedback
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FAA Testbed Year 2000 Activities

• Installation of New Data Ingest and Product
  Development System with Redundancy.
• Establish Experimental Phase for IIFA, VVSTORM,
  and other programs.
• Work from Experimental towards Guidance Phase
  with IIDA, NCWF, ITFA, and MWAVE.
• New Displays and Grib Files available on the
  Internet.

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