Insight into European leasing markets

1
Insight into European leasing markets

• John Bennett
• Chairman of Leaseurope
• Managing Director,
• Bank of America Leasing, Global Vendor Finance
  (Europe)
• 23 October 2008

2
Setting the scene

• Leaseurope global leasing markets
• European leasing market
• European car leasing rental
• European market players
• European leasing in 2008 and beyond

3
World Leasing Markets in 2007
Europe 339 bil
Canada 32 bil
excluding real estate 292 bil
Japan 44 bil
Korea 9 bil
US 168 bil
Brazil 15 bil
New leasing volumes from leasing associations
Leaseurope estimates
4
European Leasing
New Volumes yoy
30
25
2007
16.5
20
12.4
Europe
15
10
4.5
US
5
2.7
0
-9.1
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Japan
-5
-10
Total volumes
Calculated based on a homogenous sample of
members reporting in the previous year Intl
growth rates Leaseurope calculation based on
data of local associations
5
European Leasing
New Volumes yoy
30
2007
25
20
14.8
Strong equipment growth
15
10
5
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
-5
-10
Total volumes
Equipment
Calculated based on a homogenous sample of
members reporting in the previous year
6
European Leasing
New Volumes yoy
30
25
2007
20
15
10
-0.7
5
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
-5
Weak real estate leasing
-10
Total volumes
Real Estate
Equipment
Calculated based on a homogenous sample of
members reporting in the previous year
7
European Leasing
Individual Market Volumes 2007
UK ? 58bn
DE ? 54bn
CEE ? 49bn
IT ? 49bn
FR ? 40bn
BE NL, AT, CH ? 33bn
ES, PT, GR ? 32bn
Nordic ? 32bn
8
European Leasing
Individual Market Growth
11.4
Nordic
50.1
CEE
14.3
BE, NL, CH, AT
ES, PT, GR
16.7
1.6
IT
10.2
FR
3.6
UK
6.4
DE
Yoy growth calculation based on a constant
sample of members reporting in Leaseuropes
Annual Enquiries
9
European Leasing
Country Level Penetration Rates (2007)
gt 25
20 25
Leaseurope 20.8
15 20
10 15
10
European Leasing
Equipment and Vehicle Leasing in 2007
Types of equipment on lease
of total 2007 equipment leasing volumes
Computers Business Machines
Machinery Industrial Equip
Road Transport Vehicles
Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
Passenger Cars
Other
11
European Leasing
Equipment and Vehicle Leasing in 2007
Growth
Computers Business Machines
-2.3
Passenger Cars
6.3
Road Transport Vehicles
16.5
Machinery Industrial Equip
16.9
Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
43.1
Computers Business Machines
Machinery Industrial Equip
Road Transport Vehicles
Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
Passenger Cars
Other
12
European Leasing
European customer base in 2007
Private Sector
78
3
30
45
3
14
13
European Leasing
Lessees in 2007
UK
Germany
Italy
UK
France
Individuals
BE, NL, CH, AT
CEE
ES, PT, GR
NORDIC
Nordic
CEE
BE, NL, CH, AT
Other
Private sector
Consumers
Public sector
14
European Leasing
Lessees in 2007
FRANCE
Germany
Italy
UK
France
Public sector
ES, PT, GR
NORDIC
Nordic
CEE
BE, NL, CH, AT
Other
Private sector
Consumers
Public sector
15
European Auto Leasing Rental
Vehicles financed/purchased
2007
TOTAL
(mil)
6.1
1.6
7.7
187.9
(bil)
63.0
124.9
Portfolio/fleet
TOTAL
(mil)
13.1
3.6
16.7
(bil)
278.5
106.2
384.7
Leaseurope estimates based on figures reported in
the Federations 2007 Annual Survey, includes ST
rental
16
European Car Leasing Rental
Leaseurope PCs as of New Registrations
Leasing
Leasing, LT ST rental
Leasing ST rental
New cars bought or financed (used cars excluded,
all product types together) compared to new PC
registrations taken from ACEA
17
European Market Players
European 2007 market
2007 Ranking Concentration Curve
339 bil
of firms
2007 Top Firms 2007 Top Firms 2007 Top Firms
In Bil New volumes of total market
Top 10 92 27
Top 20 139 41
Top 100 213 63
50 firms
50
10 firms
43
of 2007 Ranking new volumes
Change in the competitive landscape of European
leasing going forward?
Leaseurope 2007 Ranking Survey of Top European
Leasing Companies
18
European Market Players
Weight of banks increasing, particularly in top
players
2000
2007
Leaseurope 2007 Ranking Survey of Top European
Leasing Companies and Leaseurope 2007 Annual
Enquiry
19
European Market Players
Weight of banks increasing, particularly in top
players
2000
Leaseurope Ranking Top 20 firms by profile Leaseurope Ranking Top 20 firms by profile Leaseurope Ranking Top 20 firms by profile Leaseurope Ranking Top 20 firms by profile
Bank related Captive Indep
2007 18 1 1
2006 17 2 1
2005 18 1 1
2007
Leaseurope 2007 Ranking Survey of Top European
Leasing Companies and Leaseurope 2007 Annual
Enquiry
20
European Market Players
Choice of distribution channel
Other
Intermediaries
Direct sales
Vendors
Banking networks
Leaseurope 2007 Ranking Survey of Top European
Leasing Companies
21
European Leasing - H1 2008
Growth H107/H108 excl mon impact
1.4
UK? 28 bn
DE? 26 bn
IT? 21 bn
5.8
15.6
10.3
-10.6
FR? 17 bn
13.5
ES? 8 bn
-9.8
PL? 5 bn
-24.8
CZ? 2 bn
Leaseurope member association data
22
European Leasing - H1 2008
Growth H107/H108 incl mon impact
-1.7
UK? 28 bn
DE? 26 bn
IT? 21 bn
5.8
15.6
10.3
-10.6
FR? 17 bn
13.5
ES? 8 bn
-9.8
PL? 5 bn
-24.8
CZ? 2 bn
Leaseurope member association data
23
Forecast 2008
New volumes in Europe may fall if H1 trend
continues
400
15
350
300
10
250
Bil
200
5
150
100
0
50
0
-5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008f
New vol reported in Leaseurope Annual Enquiries
New volumes
Annual growth
24
Lending Conditions
Tightening bank lending conditions
ECB Bank Lending Survey July 2008
25
Lending Conditions
Particularly to large firms
ECB Bank Lending Survey July 2008
26
Lending Conditions
Margins are increasing in Europe
ECB Bank Lending Survey July 2008
27
Demand for loans
Demand for traditional bank loans to finance
investment is decreasing
28
EU Investment
However, European businesses expect investment to
increase overall in 2008
EU 2008 expected investment
5
EU Commissions Investment Survey conducted in
March/April, published June 2008
29
EU Investment
European investment growth
2008 Eurostat forecast
15
10
5
2.8
0
-5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008f
Total
Equipment
Eurostat, yoy growth, chain linked volumes, ref
year 2000
30
Leasing Penetration
Average leasing penetration in Europe (Leaseurope
membership base 1994)
Leaseurope data investment figures from Eurostat
Sample based on 1994 Leaseurope membership
31
Insight into European leasing markets

• John Bennett
• Chairman of Leaseurope
• Managing Director,
• Bank of America Leasing, Global Vendor Finance
  (Europe)
• 23 October 2008