A Balancing Act: Towards a National Vision and Strategy

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A Balancing ActTowards a National Vision and
Strategy

• Dr. Quentin Chiotti
• Climate Change Programme Director and Senior
  Scientist
• Pollution Probe
• www.pollutionprobe.org

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Outline

• Reducing GHG emissions Scientific evidence
  demands an urgent call to action
• Transportation is a MAJOR part of the problem and
  TDM CAN be an important part of the solution
• Funding and Policy Needs
• Experience/Lessons from cross-Canada workshop
  series
• Informing a National Vision and Strategy

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• Pollution Probe is a Canadian non-profit
  organization that
• approaches issues fair-mindedly, based upon fact
• is a partnership-building, donor-based,
  non-profit organization with charitable status
• seeks to represent the needs of the public, and
  are results oriented

Pollution Probe is dedicated to achieving
positive and tangible environmental change.
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Current CO2 is 380 ppm CO2e is 430 ppm
Pre-industrial levels were 280 ppm 2xCO2 550 ppm
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IPCC 2007 Direct Observations of Recent Climate
Change
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of increases
in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global mean sea level.
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http//www.ipcc.ch/ IPCC FAR 1990 IPCC SAR
1995 IPCC TAR 2001 IPCC ARF 2007 Consensus that
climate change is real and is already
happening The questions are How much warming
will there be? How quickly will it happen?
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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

• Article 2
• stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system.

Dangerous how much change? Stabilization at
what level?
The EU has chosen 2C global warming as the
dangerous level only 1.3C more warming.
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4XCO2
3XCO2
2XCO2
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The abundance, atmospheric lifetime, and Global
Warming Potential of GHGs vary considerably
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Halo Carbons
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Urgency of SituationWindow is 0-15 years
EU 20-30 reduction by 2020 Global reductions
of 60 to 80 by 2050
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Costs of Climate Change

• Achieving these deep cuts in emissions will have
  a cost. The Review estimates the annual costs of
  stabilisation at 500-550ppm CO2e to be around 1
  of GDP by 2050 - a level that is significant but
  manageable (Stern Review).
• Canada not exceed 0.5 of GDP in any given year
  up to 2020 (Regulatory Framework) consistent
  with estimates of meeting the Kyoto targets in
  late 1990s

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Canadas Past Projected GHG Emissions
2020 Emissions 897 Mt
Business as Usual
2010 Emissions 828 Mt
2004 Emissions 758 Mt
BAU gap 326 Mt/ above Kyoto in 2020
Mt CO2 equivalent
Projected
Measured
BAU gap 257 Mt/ 45 above Kyoto in
2010
1990 Emissions 607 Mt
Kyoto Target 571 Mt 6 below 1990
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Major Components of the Proposed Federal
Regulatory Framework

• GHGs for industry intensity based
• No hard caps for emissions, with reduction
  targets based on intensity
• 18 percent by 2012, followed by 2 annual
  improvement until 2015 when it will be reviewed
• Target of 20 below 2006 levels by 2020
• Target of 60-70 below 2006 levels by 2050

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60 Reduction Below 2005 by 2050 Together with
Canada, currently contribute 27 of Global
emissions Both have 60 targets from 2005/6
Both fall short of Science based estimated
reductions
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The overwhelming majority of scientific experts,
whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties
exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced
climate change is inevitable. The question is not
whether climate will change... but rather how
much... how fast, and where Robert Watson, Chair
of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague, November
2000 Are we committed to a doubling of CO2e?
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The effects of our actions now on future changes
in the climate have long lead times. What we do
now can have only a limited effect on the climate
over the next 40 or 50 years. On the other hand
what we do in the next 10 or 20 years can have a
profound effect on the climate in the second half
of this century and in the next. (Stern
Review) We need to mitigate further, in order to
avoid a tripling or quadrupling of CO2e in the
atmosphere. Every tonne of CO2e is important.
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• Led by NRCan
• 140 Scientists
• 3000 references
• Over 500 pages
• Release date December or January
• 99 of research based on 2xCO2

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• The Horror
• The Horror

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Transportation Problem and Solution
24 of Canadas emissions
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• Voluntary Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards 5.3
  Mt by 2010
• Beginning with 2011 model year, a mandatory and
  ambitious fuel efficiency standard will be
  developed through a process that will involve
  input from all stakeholders

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• 1973 Oil Shock
• Fuel economy improvement policy mandated
• Since 1980s fuel economy has stagnated if not got
  worse as vehicles have shifted from passenger
  cars to SUV and Minivans

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• Central Ontario will grow by over 3 million
  people over the next 30 years
• Ontario could have an additional 3.5 million cars
  on the road
• VKT 157 million to 258 million
• Travelling in morning rush hour increases by 45
  per cent
• 42 per cent increase in GHG emissions from
  vehicles

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The Role of Cities and Individuals The Local
case for Mode Shifting

• Actions by individuals account for 28 of GHG
  emissions each year average of 5 tonnes per
  year
• Greater than 50 of all emissions are under the
  direct and indirect control or influence of
  municipal governments, 1990

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NRTEE Canadian Cities in 2050 - BAU

• The personal automobile would still dominate the
  transportation of people.
• While there is a slight shift from suburban to
  urban in location and lifestyle, the predominant
  urban form resembles the downtowns of todays
  cities, except that there are considerably more
  people living in the cores of these cities in
  2050.
• Service sector workers continue to work in
  offices and the other sorts of commercial and
  institutional buildings in which they work today,
  but there are many more of these buildings.

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NRTEE Changes in urban form and transportation
behaviour

• Housing densities have increased to the point
  where 70 per cent of Canadians live in some form
  of multiple dwelling. With the majority of jobs
  in services and light manufacturing, these land
  uses are integrated into residential developments
  so that it has become common to live and work in
  the same walkable neighbourhood or work at home
  for several days each week. The average Canadian
  travels much less than at mid-century reserving
  travel more for pleasure than for commuting.
  Where it is necessary to travel to work,
  Canadians are now twice as likely to use public
  transit, which has become more efficient and
  convenient as a result of higher density and
  improved design. To a lesser extent, it also
  emphasizes improved access to and use of public
  transit.
• THIS IS THE MINIMUM TARGET THAT MUST BE ACHIEVED!

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Policy and Funding Needs

• What Governments can do
• Support pilot projects, demonstration projects,
  educations and awareness building
• Lead by example
• Regulate, intervene in the marketplace, provide
  incentives and disincentives

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What do Governments do in Canada to support
TDM/Mode shifting?

• Federal wanting to increase their involvement
  but constrained by having a limited role
• Strong role in pilot and demonstration
• Leading by example uneven
• Regulation lacking for sustained funding
• International comparisons UK, Australia and the
  U.S.
• Falls short of what other countries are doing

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What do Governments do in Canada to support
TDM/Mode shifting?

• Provincial
• Limited or marginal role if any
• Have not addressed the funding issue
• Example of Ontario
• HOV lanes, promoting TDM across OPS in the GTA
  considering pilot and demonstration projects
• More role in revising planning principles, OMB
  reform, smart growth policies
• Municipalities
• Where the rubber hits the road
• Progress, but still uneven and inconsistent
  policies
• Regional Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal

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Need for a National Vision and Strategy on
TDM/Mode Shifting

• Forest Carbon Management
• Green Power
• Water Policy
• Policy on Childrens Health and the Environment
• Mode Shifting/Transportation Demand Management?

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Learning From Green Power Workshop Series

• Workshop 1 Green Power in Canada - Status and
  Developments (October 2003)
• Workshop 2 Green Power in Canada - Technology
  Development and Resource Opportunities (November
  2003)
• Workshop 3 Creating Markets for Investments in
  Green Power (December 2003)
• Workshop 4 National and International Policy
  Incentives for Green Power Development (February
  9-10, 2004)
• Workshop 5 Next Steps A Vision and Strategy
  for Green Power in Canada (April 3, 2004)

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What you need to know and what you need to do if
you want to buy Green Power or support its
development. WHAT TO KNOW What is Green Power?
What are Green Power Technologies? Why should
you buy Green Power? Is there a Green Power
Strategy for Canada? WHAT TO DO How to Buy
Green Power How to Invest in Green Power How to
Generate your own Green Power Net Metering
Getting Credit for the Electricity you Generate
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Policy on Childrens Health and the Environment

• Workshop 1 Childrens Health and Environment
  Stage Setting (January 2324, 2007, Ottawa,
  Ontario)
• Workshop 2 - Outdoor Air Quality Implications
  for Children's Health (February 27-28, 2007)
• Workshop 3 - Research Informing Policy (April
  18-19, 2007)
• Workshop 4 - Environmental Risks to Brain
  Development (May 30-31, 2007)
• Workshop 5 - Toxic Substances In Consumer
  Products(September 25-26, 2007)
• Workshop 6 - Towards a National Vision and
  Strategy for Childrens Environmental Health in
  Canada (November 22-23, 2007)

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Mode Shifting/TDM Policy

• Workshop 1 International Benchmarking and Best
  Practices
• Workshop 2 Land Use and Transportation Planning
• Workshop 3 Commuter Options social marketing
  and soft measures, business case showcase
• Workshop 4 Funding and Resources sustainable
  sources, economic instruments and tools
• Workshop 5 Policy Support All groups/levels of
  Government

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Leaders and Funders

• Co-lead by Pollution Probe and ACT Canada
• 400K for workshop series and follow up
• Federal ecoMobility funds for capacity building
• Provincial support
• Municipal support
• Business support
• Service providers in-kind

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Thank You