Transit and Climate Change

1
Transit and Climate Change

• California Transit Association Legislative
  Conference 2008
• Kurt Karperos
• Air Resources Board
• May 21, 2008
• Sacramento, CA

2
Climate Impacts
California Projected Impacts 75 loss in
snow pack 1-2 foot sea level rise 70 more extreme
heat days/year 80 more likely ozone days 55
more large forest fires Twice the drought years
2
3
What Is AB 32?

• Sets in statute 2020 GHG emissions limit at 1990
  level
• Acknowledges that 2020 is not the endpoint
• Air Resources Board to monitor/regulate GHG
  sources
• In collaboration with other state agencies, ARB
  will develop Scoping Plan by January 1, 2009

4
Magnitude of the Challenge
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AB 32 Timeline
2010
2011
2012
2020
2008
2009
2007
Identification/ implementation of further
emission reduction strategies
Publish list of early actions
GHG reduction measures operative
Mandatory reporting 1990 Baseline
Publish scoping plan
Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
Adopt enforceable early action regulations
GHG reduction measures adopted
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Forecasted GHG Emissions2020
Other Transportation 3
Transportation 36
Electric Power 23
Industrial 18
Others 15
Agriculture Forestry 5
Preliminary ARB GHG Projections for 2020 Other
Transportation trains, planes, ships
7
On-Road Transportation Sources 2020

• Passenger Vehicles
• 160 MMTCO2E
• Heavy-Duty Vehicles
• 50 MMTCO2E

Preliminary ARB GHG Projections for 2020
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Transportation GHG
Vehicle Technology
Vehicle Use
Fuels
Transp. GHG
GHG Mile
GHG Gallon

VMT
,
,
Transp. Land Use Strategies
AB 1493 Regulation
Low-Carbon Fuel Standard
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Historical and Projected Population, Vehicle
Miles
Traveled (VMT) and GHG Growth
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
Percent of 1990 Growth
130
120
110
100
90
80
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2020
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Drivers of VMT Reduction
Integrated Strategies
Land Use Density Diversity Design Destinations
Alternate Mode Infrastructure Transit Carpool/Van
pool Bike Walk
Transportation Conservation Education Incentives
to drive less TDM Programs
Pricing Signals Cost per mile Cost per
gallon Parking costs Congestion relief costs
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Land Use A Long-Term Strategy That Must Begin
Now

• Land use strategies mostly impact new growth
  benefits accumulate
• Population 13 by 2020 40 by 2040
• Multiple benefits
• Options to increasingly expensive car travel
• More access to jobs, services, affordable housing
• Less land used more open space
• More physical activity improved health
• Improved water/air quality

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Potential Long-Term Impacts of Growing Smarter
Sacramento Region -- 2050
Source SACOG, Regional Blueprint Program, 2005
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Outcome of ARB Haagen-Smit Symposium

• Haagen-Smit Framework for Action
• Set performance-based targets
• Use Blueprint model to help create visions that
  reach targets
• Assist local actions and ensure accountability

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Haagen-SmitEnabling Structure for Local Actions

• Apply CEQA to GHG emissions
• Secure new funding. Use current funding wisely.
• Promote large-scale project demonstrations
• Rethink zoning
• Adopt proven measures
• Improve measurement tools
• Exert State leadership
• Engage the public

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Contacts and More Information

• ARB Climate Change Web Site
• http//www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm
• Stay informed - sign up for list serve
• California Climate Change Portal
• http//www.climatechange.ca.gov