Scale, Risk and Uncertainty

1
Scale, Risk and Uncertainty

• 13 December 2006

2

• SEVERITY OF RISK OR IMPACT
• Catastrophic
• Severe
• Modest
• Mild

• SCIENTIFIC
• CERTAINTY
• Highly confident
• Moderately confident
• Moderately uncertain
• Very uncertain

• SCALE
• Global
• Regional
• Watershed
• Local

3
Topics covered in class(1) causes, (2) primary
drivers, (3) types of impacts, (4)
potential solutions

• Stratospheric ozone depletion
• Human population
• Extraction of raw materials
• Combustion of fossil fuels for energy
• Sprawl patterns of development
• Global climate change
• Agribusiness
• Genetically modified crops
• Loss of biodiversity
• Water quality and quantity
• Linear industry

4
Additional Environmental Topics

• Groundwater pollution
• Radon
• Availability of drinking water
• Species extinction
• Wildlife habitat
• Asbestos
• PCBs
• Dioxins
• and many more

5

• What are the implications of scale, severity
  of risk and scientific certainty for
  environmental problem solving?
• Ability to generate public / political interest
• Credibility
• Interest
• Ability to resolve differences / find solutions