Ten Trends that will Determine the Future of IT

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Ten Trends that will Determine the Future of IT

• and what you must do about them

Joel OrrChief VisionaryCyon Research Corporation
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A man, a plan, a canalPanama
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The future is already here its just not
evenly distributed. William Gibson
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Trends

• Physical decentralization, logical centralization
• Closed to open
• Isolated to integrated
• Dumb to smart
• Analysis to synthesis
• Procedures to objects to components
• Mediated to immediate
• Almost to good enough
• Sellers market to buyers market
• Disruption as the norm

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Laws Technology
The number of active devices on a chip doubles
every 18 months.
Schmidts Law replaces Moores Law.
Bandwidth doubles for high-end users every year.

• Moores
• Schmidts
• Metcalfes
• Joys

The value of a network is proportionate to the
square of the number of nodes.

• Innovation will happen.
• It wont happen here!

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Physical decentralization, logical centralization

• The Web
• Grid computing
• Edge computing

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Communication Complexity
Direct
Paths (n2-n)/2 Team No. of Size Paths
4 6 10 45 25 300
100 4950
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Communication Complexity
Mediated
Paths n
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Likelihood of Error
499,500
DIRECT
4950
Paths
45
MEDIATED
1000
100
10
5 10 100
1000
Nodes
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Closed to open

• XML
• Java
• Linux/GNU

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Isolated to integrated

• WirelessBluetooth, WiFi, radio, satellite
• Power-line networks
• Fiber to the curb

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Dumb to smart

• Autonomous computing
• Chips ahoy!
• GPS/GIS

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Analysis to synthesis

• Decomposition
• Mimicry
• Simulation

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Procedures to objects to components

• Abandoning hope of proof
• Trusty behavior
• Keeping score
• Scaling

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Mediated to immediate

• Ill do it
• You do it
• Ill do it

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Almost to good enough
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Sellers market to buyers market

• Vox populi vox dei

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Disruption as the norm

• Wealth flows directly from innovation, not
  optimization. The challenge is to seize the
  unknown, not just perfect the known.
• To cultivate the unknown it is necessary to
  nurture the agility of networks.
• To domesticate the unknown, we need to abandon
  the highly-successful known.
• In the Network Economy, we must live the cycles
  of "find, nurture, destroy" continuously.
• Kevin Kelly, WIRED 9/97

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Laws Change

• Change is inevitableprogress is not. (Russell)
• Change is inevitableexcept from a vending
  machine. (Orr)

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Law Economics

• For every economist, there is an equal but
  opposite economist.
• Theyre both wrong.

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Laws Business Success

• Two laws1. Never tell everything you know.

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(No Transcript)
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Whats an IT professional to do?

• Keep up
• Generalize or stay technical
• Coach or support

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Structure is Destiny
Every organization is perfectly designed to
produce the results it gets.
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Structure vs. Choice

• Johnson OConnor
• Aptitudes
• Adapt to your aptitudes

• Myers-Briggs
• Preferences
• Guideline for change

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Bottlenecks

• You get the behavior you reward

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Homeostasis and Transition

• Active inertia
• Thermostat
• Dieting
• Other stable states
• You got to have a dream
• Getting from here to there

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Which Is Easier?
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Leverage

• The right thing
• Repair bill
• Atlas-orthogonal chiropractic
• Wall-to-wall carpeting in the US

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Ask Questions

• What do you want?
• Why?
• When?
• How will you know when you have it?
• What next?

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What to Do

• Identify your current state
• Clarify your desired state
• Test for stability
• Identify leverage points
• Create map of stable intermediate states
• Get buy-in
• Execute

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Factors that Encourage Change
IMPORTANCE
High Level Endorsement
Process Under Change
Success Stories
Metrics
VISIBILITY
MOTIVATION
Grass Roots Involvement
CREATIVITY OWNERSHIP
Source Marv Patterson, Hewlett-Packard
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Hope vs. Faith

• Hope is passive
• Faith is a choice

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The Real Challenge

• Technology problems are easily solved
• Organizational problems are often hidden
• Fear of change is the biggest obstacle
• Progress can be made--but only if the
  people/organizational issues are confronted
  squarely

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In Sum

• Observe trends and prepare
• Pick a role Coach or support
• To mediate change
• Decide
• Believe
• Map
• Do it
• Measure
• Move on

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Thank you!
joel_at_joelorr.com http//www.dandelionprinciple.com
http//www.cofes.com