Russia and the CIS countries

1
Russia and the CIS countries

• Russia as a regional power and its role in CIS
• Democratic theory and the Foreign Policy of
  Russia
• CIS and security concerns
• Conflict management and peacekeeping in CIS
• Secessionism and political transition in the
  Caucuses and
• Central Asia (week 30)
• Two theoretical frameworks to analyze Russian
  policies in the region/Assessment of Russia and
  CIS (week 31)

2
The creation of the Commonwealth of Independent
States

• Failed coup (1991) collapse of Soviet Union
• Gorbachev federalist type of union power and
  autonomy to the units but control of fp and
  national security by the centre
• Yeltsin confederation
• Which of the former Soviet republics should be
  included
• Ukraine and Belarus due to ethnic, cultural, and
  strategic significance
• All rest of the countries joined, with the
  exception of the Baltic states and Georgia
  (forced to join)
• Significance of CIS for Russia
• Means of coordinating policies among members
• Asserting Russian hegemony on near abroad.

3
What is the CIS?

• Neither a political alliance not an economic
  community
• Loose federation with no independent powers of
  governance for the center
• Ukraine rejected a stronger union
• Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
  Tajikistan, Uzbekistan wanted a stronger union
• Goals
• create a military-strategic space
• Create a joint command (many of the countries
  suspicious)
• Issue of nuclear weapons (Ukraine reluctant to
  surrender its nuclear weaponsUS involvement)
• Monetary compensation
• Nationalism and bargaining tool
• Security guarantees
• Economic integration

4
Russo-Ukrainian Discord

• Nuclear problem
• Black Sea fleet and Crimean was Sevastopol a
  Ukrainian city?
• Agreement to equally divide the fleet and to
  write off Ukraines debt
• Territorial disputes and Crimea
• Population demographics
• Khrushchevs gift to Ukraine

5
Regional Stability

• Military threats in the region
• Unsettled border issues with China or Afghanistan
• Weak armies pieces of the Soviet army
• Ethnic divisions and weak state structures
• Islamic fundamentalism
• Confidence-building measures
• Sanghai 1996 Russia, Kazakstan, Kyrgystan, and
  Tajikistan
• Withdrawal of troops and armaments 100km from the
  border between China and Central Asian republics
• Mechanisms of collective security and
  coordination of defence and policies with OSCE
  and NATO

6
Role of OSCE in Central Asia

• http//www.osce.org/about/13510.html
• Larger regional security organization (55 members
  from Vancouver to Vladivostok)
• Only organization that unites all the states in
  the region and provides security and cooperation
• Most of the Central Asian states members due to
  their Soviet heritage
• OSCE suffers from lack of funds, mandate, and
  troops unlike the UN or NATO
• Developmental work
• Creates a foundation for a Euro-Central system of
  security
• Strong OSCE reduces the role of Russia in the
  region

7
Conflict management in CIS

• Russia has assumed the main peacekeeping role in
  the region (Moldova and Georgia)
• Either neo-imperialism
• Or post-imperialism concern for spill-over
  effects
• Case of Moldova (Transdniestria)
• Political goals neutrality
• 14th army and General Lebed
• 5 Russian batallions and exclusion of 14th army
• Case of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia)

8
Russia and peacekeeping

• Different views from the West
• Peacekeeping part of conflict-waging
• Clear mandate (Political goals) but no control of
  civilian commissioner over military
• Cessation of violence major issueignoring
  political progress in resolving underlying causes
  of conflict
• Clear interests (violation of neutrality)
• Consent by recognizing the second party
  (ultimately accepting quasi-independence)
  pressure on first party governments in Moldova
  and Georgia to accept Russian peacekeepers
• Not a minimal force but a deterring force
• rule of engagement and use of force in
  self-defence non existent for Russian strategists
• Bottom line Russia prefers to have two
  quasi-states separate by cease fire rather than
  territorial control of any area (control)
• Chechenia a unique case of peacekeeping (next
  term)

9
Georgia
10
The case of Moldova
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Case IV Kazhakstan

• slightly less than four times the size of Texas
• Population 16,741,519 Life expectancy at
  birth total population 63.38 years
• Total fertility rate 2.12 children
  born/woman Ethnic groups Kazakh (Qazaq)
  53.4, Russian 30, Ukrainian 3.7, Uzbek 2.5,
  German 2.4, Uighur 1.4, other 6.6
• Literacy total population 98.4
• GDP - real growth rate 12.2
• GDP - per capita purchasing power parity -
  5,900

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Aral Sea
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Aral Sea II

• In the past few decades, the Aral Sea's volume
  has decreased by 75 percent , the equivalent of
  draining Lakes Erie and Ontario, and its surface
  area by 50 percent.
• Sea level has fallen by more than 16 meters in
  this already shallow sea. This is a drastic
  change, but, in the far distant past, the Aral
  Sea has completely dried up. It has also been
  much larger than it was in 1960. The controversy
  about the Aral Sea Region arises because the
  change is human induced.

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Case IV Uzbekistan

• slightly larger than California
• Population 25,563,441
• Life expectancy at birth total population
  63.9 years
• Total fertility rate 3.03 children
  born/woman
• Ethnic groups Uzbek 80, Russian 5.5, Tajik
  5, Kazakh 3, Karakalpak 2.5, Tatar 1.5, other
  2.5
• Literacy total population 99
• GDP - real growth rate 3
• GDP - per capita purchasing power parity -
  2,500

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CIS and RFP