Chained Volume Measures: CVM

1
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
????????(Chained Volume Measures CVM)

• ??. ????????? ??????????
• ???????????????????
• 7 ??????? 2550

2
?????????????????
Source Paul Schreyer, Chain index number
formulae in the National accounts, 8th OECD
NBS workshop on National accounts 2004.
3
???????????????????

• ?????????????????????????? GDP growth
  ??????????????????? GDP ????? ?????????????
  ????????????????????? GDP ???????????????????
• DGDP DAnnual GDP (Chained Laspeyres)
• ????
• DGDP Dsum of Quarterly GDP (Fixed-base
  Laspeyres)
• ?????????????? Reconcile ????????????????????????
  ???????????? ?????????????????? 2 ?????????
• ????????? Chained index ?????????????? Additivity
  property ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????? Residual ???
• ??? Residual ????????????????? ????????????? GDP
  identity ???
• ???????????? ????????? Residual
  ??????????????????????????????????? Residual
  ??????????? Reference year ???????
  ?????????????????????????????????????? Reference
  year

4
??????????????????? (???)

• ????????????????????????? Chained method ????
  ?????????????????????????????????? Residual
  ?????????? Non-additivity ???? Statistical
  discrepancy ?????????????????????????????? GDP
  ???? Demand ??? Supply

GDPDemand C I G X M Stat.
ResidualDemand GDPSupply Ag Non-ag.
ResidualSupply
5
??????????????????? (???)

• ??????????? ??????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????? ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ??? ???????????????????????
  ?????????? 2 ??? ??? Annual weight ??? Quarterly
  weight ???????? 2 ???????????????? /
  ??????????????

Source Paul Schreyer, Chain index number
formulae in the National accounts, 8th OECD
NBS workshop on National accounts 2004.
6
??????????????????? (???)

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????? ???????????????????????? GDP ???????
  Chained Laspeyres
• ???????????????????????????? ?????????????????????
  Chained / Modified Laspeyres ????
  ?????????????????? ???????????????? ???
  ??????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????? Fixed-base
  Laspeyres ????
• ???????????????? ?????????????????????????????????
  ?? Chain Laspeyres ????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????? I/O
• ?????????????????????????????? ???????????????????
  ?????????????? I/O (??? 5 ??) ????????????????????
  ?????????????????????
• ????????? ????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????? Chained
  Laspeyres ??? ????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????

7
??????????????????? (??????????????????)

• Chain volume estimates are not additive, the
  accounting relationships that apply to current
  price data do not generally apply to their chain
  volume counterparts.
• It is not applicable to series that can take
  positive, negative, or zero values such as change
  in inventories and external balance.
• The derivation of the contributions to growth
  cannot calculate straightforward.
• It should be calculate share of each component
  from current prices.
• Only the values in the reference year and the
  following year are additive.