Exploring Community Solutions

1
Exploring Community Solutions Plan C Dealing
with Climate Change, Peak Oil and Rising
Inequity

• Presented by
• Pat Murphy,
• Executive Director,
• Community Solutions
• Yellow Springs, OH 45387
• March 2010

2
The Arthur Morgan Institute for Community
Solutions (CS)

• Founded in 1940 to advocate for Small Communities
• Arthur Morgans view
• Humans develop best in a particular place over
  generations
• Interact in a face-to-face manner our Home
  Town
• In 2003 CS began studying Climate Change and Peak
  Oil
• Factors that may lead to small community
  resurgence
• Represents a trend to relocalization/localization
  
• (Related but not identical)

3
Sustainability Needs a New Definition

• Four interrelated threats to humanity
• Increasing CO2 (from burning fossil fuels)
• Threatens life on earth
• Shrinking amounts of fossil fuels Peak Oil
  (Energy)
• Implies a declining material standard of living
• Record inequity result of cheap fuels and cheap
  credit
• More violence, suffering and alienation today
• Related to current economic crisis
• Population growth
• Can the earth support 7 billion people?

4
The Threat of Climate Change

• CO2 387 ppm increasing 2.1 ppm annually
• James Hansens new theoretical max. 350 ppm!!

5
World Facing Energy Limits

• Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) says
  will be in 2010
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Fatih Birol says
  2020
• 10 years difference is small agreement that it
  is real

6
World Inequity Highest in History

• Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan
  Illich 1974
• Contraction Convergence Movement Europe and
  NGOs

7
Unsustainable Population Growth

• This is a very serious problem
• Also each person is consuming more energy !

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Whats the Common Factor?

• Cheap, plentiful fossil fuel energy
• Peak Oil implies its going to end
• Climate change shows consuming it is very
  dangerous
• Inequity implies its unequally distributed
  undemocratic
• Population growth based on a temporary source of
  food
• How have we talked about this?
• We must become more sustainable!
• But few know how or exactly what that means
• However more and more are becoming aware of the
  crises
• And they are proposing solutions

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Three Current Technology/Societal Options

• Plan A Black (fossil fuel technology)
• More oil, gas, tar sands
• Proponents are oil, gas, coal, agribusiness, car
  companies
• Maintain current life style 95 of population
• Plan B Green (solar, wind, switch grass)
  technology
• Focused primarily on intermittent electricity
  generation
• Proponents are Al Gore, Lester Brown,
  environmental NGOs
• Maintain current life style 5 of population
• Plan C high-satisfaction, low-energy lifestyle
• Focused on curtailing fossil fuel usage
• Change current life style 1 or less of
  population

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Plan C Questions Modern Technology Problem or
Solution?

• 10,000 years of Agrarian living
• 250 years of technology living
• 65 years hyper-technology living
• Modern world is an energy world
• Technology is limited
• Fuel cell car a 30 year effort
• Electric cars 90 years old
• Fusion 40 years late

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Energy Sources Are Limited

• Fossil Fuels and Uranium
• Oil and Gas Not enough
  resources
• Coal-Tar Sands-Oil Shale Not enough
  atmosphere
• Nuclear fission Not enough resources
• Nuclear fusion Too difficult
• Renewables
• Biomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough
  air/water/soil
• Hydroelectric Not enough sites
• Hydrogen folly Uses energy to make
  hydrogen
• Photovoltaic wind power Proven but
  will they scale?
• Why are there so few options?
• Are we at a point of diminishing returns?
• Has anything new been added since energy crisis
  of 1970s?

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Energy Devices Are Limited

• Fuel Cell cars a 30-year debacle
• 17 billion spent few cars
• EV a less expensive debacle
• Few billion spent 4,000 made
• PHEV next techno fix a coal car
• Only a bit less CO2 per mile than a hybrid
• Green Building doesnt save much energy
• 15-25 savings at best need 80-90
• Repeat Why are there so few options?
• Is technology at a point of diminishing returns?

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Plan C A Contingency Plan Curtail Consumption
Fast

• Community survival strategies
• Key word is survivable not sustainable
• We must cut energy use fast!
• Cuts must be deep and quick
• IPCC 80-90 by 2050 3-4 yearly
• Cant wait for possible techno-fixes
• Our focus
• Cut energy under personal control
• House, food, cars 2/3 U.S. energy

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Plan C A Community ContextHigh-Satisfaction,
Low-Energy Lifestyle

• A sufficiency life style
• Cooperating vs. Competing
• Sharing vs. Hoarding
• Saving vs. Consuming
• Context where curtailment is not suffering
• Happiness is in relating, not accumulating
• Live simply that others may simply live
• Community is a cooperation principle
• Now high-consumption competitive living
• Need high-satisfaction cooperative living

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Science of Plan C

• Our work is technology/science-based
• Technology of depletion proven by M. King
  Hubbert
• Climate Science more or less well accepted now
  (IPCC)
• Psychology/Sociology Bowling Alone
• Ecological economics
• Our research is in Plan C intermediate technology
• Buildings, personal transportation, food
• Plan C challenges false technical promises
  green or black
• Plan C insists on measuring sustainability
• BOE consumed, CO2 generated and PPP changes

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Per Capita Thinking If You Cant Measure It,
You Cant Manage It!

• Need to deeply understand energy and CO2
  accounting
• Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI)
• Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)
• Embodied Energy vs. Operating Energy (EE and OE)
• Deep understanding requires per capita
  comparisons
• Nation comparisons are always misleading
• Media obscures per capita lets us feel
  righteous
• There are three key macro considerations
• CO2 generation (tonnes per capita per year)
• Energy consumption (BOE per capita per year)
• Income (PPP) ( per capita per year)

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World Organization by Energy

• Organization for Economic Cooperation
  Development OECD
• OECD-L OECD minus US. (Turkey, Mexico moved to
  ROW)
• US is a separate category of its own
• 82 of all people live in ROW (Rest of World)

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IPCC Requires 90 CO2 Reduction by 2050

• Per capita comparison
• 33 most populous nations
• 80 of world population
• Also OECD-L and ROW
• Survival (sustainable) level
• 1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita 2050
• 4 tonne CO2 world average today
• 19 tonne CO2 US average today
• U.S. greatest CO2 contributor
• 4.5 of world made 27 of CO2
• Needs a 90 cut

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Energy Consumption and CO2

• Per capita comparison
• Same 33 nations
• And OECD L/ROW
• Chart shape the same
• CO2 2.3 times energy
• HxCy gtgt CO2 heat

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CO2 Energy Relationship
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Energy Consumption and Income

• PPP Purchasing Power Parity
• IEA - International Energy Agency
• CIA data Is similar
• Larger numbers same shape
• Causal or correlative?
• Is energy
• Our economy runs on oil

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CO2 Emissions Income
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U.S. Energy Consumption Breakdown

• Population U.S. 300M OECD-L 700M ROW
  5,700M
• U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home)

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Meeting 80 90 Reduction Targets

• Target 1 Housing (15.4 BOE/c/year)
• Deep building retrofits Model is German Passive
  House Affordable Comfort, Inc.s 1,000 Home
  Challenge is retrofit model
• Target 2 Cars (13.5 BOE/c/year)
• Smart Jitney ride sharing shared transit 30
  companies
• Electric bicycles China real transportation
  growth
• Motor coaches between cities
• Target 3 Food (10 BOE/c/year)
• Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial
  animal products
• Change your diet to locally grown non-industrial
  food

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Target 1 U.S. Homes Size Matters Most

• Per capita square foot
• 1950 260
• 2008 800
• New U.S. home size
• 1950 1,000 sq. ft.
• 2008 2,400 sq. ft
• U.S. residences almost twice as large as Europe
  or Japan
• This is a cultural issue

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U.S. Energy Use in Buildings

• 50 of U.S. energy is used in buildings
• 40 operating, 10 embodied (building) energy
• U.S. has about 115 million residences (80 million
  buildings)
• Most will need to be retrofitted

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Green Building Too Little, Too Late LEED
and Energy Star Ineffective

• Green programs reduce energy use by 15-20
• Need 80-90
• Green buildings about 5 of new construction
• Less than 1 of existing homes are green after
  10 years
• Will take decades to turn over the building stock

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Needed A Thick, Tight Building Envelope
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The German Passive House

• Passive Houses use 90 less heating and cooling
  energy
• They have no external heat source or air
  conditioning
• Super-insulated and super air tight

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13th Annual Passive House Conference

• Held April 2009 in Frankfurt, Germany
• 1,200 attendees from around world
• 100 presenters
• Tours of homes/schools
• About 20,000 passive houses/buildings to date
• 18 years since first one was built a maturing
  technology
• Great windows, heat exchangers, insulation,
  sealants
• Achieving 90 heating/cooling energy reduction
• Germans credit U.S. builders of 1970s as
  inventors!

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Challenge Retrofit Existing Buildings

• 1,000-square-foot Carriage House
• Thicken walls, roof, floors
• First floor 4 rigid, 7- fiberglass
• Double wall added 12 total
• Roof rafters from 2x4 to 2x12
• Installed a HRV heat exchanger
• Required for Passive Houses
• Replaced windows
• A model for retrofitting

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Target 2 The Private Car

• U.S. has 220 million cars/SUVs/pickups
• U.S. has 30 of the 700 million cars in use
  worldwide
• U.S. cars/trucks generate 45 of auto CO2 in
  world
• Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime
• 75 million new cars and trucks are built each
  year worldwide
• Net addition to world car population 55 million
  yearly
• U.S. fleet mileage 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan
  47 mpg
• Replacing this fleet with new cars would take
  decades
• Hybrids are less than 1 of cars on road after 10
  years
• Sales are between 2-3 of total sales
• This is a little known scale issue

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Efficiency Ineffective (Jeavons Paradox)

• Efficiency isnt the answer
• From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg
  cars?
• 3 times the efficiency 4 times the number of
  cars
• 1-2 yearly tech improvements and population
  increase
• 2-4 yearly oil depletion rate

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U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone

• Passengers per trip U.S. Transportation Energy
  Book, 2008
• There are many empty seats moving around

35
Conventional Mass Transit Questionable

• Mass transit typically just supplements cars
• Paris, London, Toronto, New York high car
  populations
• In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit
• Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile)
• Private Car 3,496 SUV
  4,329
• Bus Transit 4,318 Airplane
  3,959
• Amtrak Train 2,760 Rail transit
  2,569
• Vanpool 1,294
• Some people object to these numbers researching
  more now
• U.S. Transportation Energy Data Book 2008
• How much and how long for a mass transit system?
• Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?

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What About a Jitney?

• A small bus that carries passengers over a
  regular route on a flexible schedule
• An unlicensed taxicab
• Essence of the Jitney
• Shared transit with private cars
• Not mass transit with buses
• Every existing car can be jitney
• Common in 85 of world
• Can cut energy use 80

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The Smart Jitney

• Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and
  drop off
• Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules
• Made possible by new communications/GPS
  technology
• A software problem not hardware all components
  exist!
• First U.S. conference held in April, 2009 at MIT
• Also called dynamic ride sharing
• Status Operational!!!
• Avego of Ireland has test systems running
• Should expect announcements soon in California
• Can get software with an IPHONE start today!

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Target 3 Food

• May be the hardest change behavior modification
• But the easiest physically no new technology
• Step 1 stop eating factory meat and processed
  foods
• Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan books explain
  this
• Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than
  cars
• Suffering of containment food animals is beyond
  belief
• Garden and buy locally grown food
• CS has its own garden supports CSAs
• John Michael Greer organic garden is
  contemporary!!
• Restore rural America an Agrarian Society

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Local Work in Yellow Springs

• Council formed Electrical System Task Force in
  2007
• Cancelled a new 3 million electrical substation
• Withdrew from planned AMPOhio coal plant
• Formed Energy Task Force for long range planning
• New home energy audit company formed Net0Homes
• Net0Homes, CS and University of Dayton
  Partnership
• CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy
  Partnership
• CS submitted bid for DOE Retrofit program in
  December
• A partnership of 5 organizations
• Must measure usage and design solutions not easy

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Time Is Getting Short

• Peak Oil could occur any day
• IEA has acknowledge Peak Oil Says 2020
• Dates are less important than the acknowledgement
• Climate Change is extremely serious IPCC report
  desperate
• Artic ice melt is accelerating
• Survivability needs 80-90 reduction of energy
  use (3-4 yearly)
• Incrementalism is death Stephen Tanner
  (BioHaus)
• No time to hope for breakthrough technologies
  CCS, PHEV
• Must change habits and way of life become
  different people
• Using intermediate low risk technologies

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Expect a Community Resurgence

• Early 2000s was like pre-depression period
  (roaring 1920s)
• Things were declining rapidly before October 1929
  like now
• The financial crisis is a crisis of character
• The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi
  schemes
• Consumer debt triggered both depressions
• Free market has become a license to steal
• Community provides an alternative value system
• Cooperation, not competition
• Values of caring and sharing

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Summary

• CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community
• Assumes no techno-fixes can maintain current way
  of life
• CS projects are directed at personal consumption
  (2/3 of energy)
• Working with Low Energy building organizations
  Affordable Comfort, Inc., Passive House
  Institute-US, 2FOR1, DOE
• Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland
  (Avego)
• Working with local farmers for local food
  production
• Our view a return to high-satisfaction,
  low-energy communities
• World sacrificed community for consumerism
• Horrible mistake community will be reborn
• Strong community means less materialism (energy)

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Einsteins Reminder

• We can't solve problems by using the same kind
  of thinking we used when we created them
• Its time for new values and new thinking
• Relationships better than stuff
• Live simply so others may simply live
• Others include our children!
• Plan C offers both