Review of Engineer 2020 Phase I Report

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Review of Engineer 2020 Phase I Report
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Phase I Creating the Vision

• Phase I Visions and scenarios of engineering
  practice
• Phase II Action agenda to shape the future of
  engineering education Public comment and feedback

• . . . engaged a diverse group of thought and
  opinion leaders in a series of activities to
  gather facts, forecast future conditions, and
  develop future scenarios for the 2020 engineer.
  Phase I featured a Visioning and
  Scenario-Development Workshop to synthesize a
  visions of engineering's future and develop
  multiple scenarios depicting society's
  engineering needs. The synthesized visions
  reflect the aspirations of young people,
  practicing engineers, and policy makers, balanced
  by the needs and requirements of society.

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Phase II Educating the 2020 Engineer

• Phase I Visions and scenarios of engineering
  practice
• Phase II Action agenda to shape the future of
  engineering education Public comment and feedback

• . . . is to be launched in the summer of 2004,
  will build on the 2020 vision and lay down the
  broad strategies needed to meet the education
  challenges that lie ahead. The primary activity
  of Phase II will be a national summit of 80 to
  100 current and emerging leaders in engineering
  and engineering education. The summit will issue
  recommendations for changing the content,
  delivery, and structure of engineering education,
  consistent with the needs of 2020 engineers and
  society.

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Foundational Questions for 2020 Phase I Study

• What will the contextual conditions of
  engineering practice be in 2020 technological
  and societal?
• What are your aspirations for engineering and
  engineers in 2020?
• What will the critical attributes for engineers
  be in 2020?

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Engineer 2020 Phase I Workshop

• Background research and surveys
• Woods Hole, MA, Sept. 3-4, 2002
• Industry perspective Phil Condit, Boeing and
  Bran Ferren, Disney
• Academic/Government perspective Dr. Shirley
  Jackson, President of RPI and former Director of
  the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
• Scenario-based planning Peter Schwartz, Global
  Business Networks

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Key Driving Forces in the Next 20 Years

• Technology Context and Trajectories
• Societal, Global and Professional Context of
  Engineering Practice
• Aspirations and Attributes of Engineers

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Technology Drivers

• Growing complexity, scale, uncertainty, and
  interdisciplinary characteristics of engineered
  systems
• The accelerating pace of technological advance
• Bioengineering, biotechnology biomedical
  technology
• Information and Communication Technology
• Miniaturization (MEMS, nanotechnology, advanced
  materials)

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Bioengineering, Biotechnology Biomedical
Technology

• Advances in biotech have already significantly
  improved the quality of our lives
• More dramatic breakthroughs ahead
• Tissue engineering
• Regenerative medicine
• Drug delivery engineering
• Bio-inspired computing
• Protection from biological terrorism

Korean technique for human DNA extraction.
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Micro/Nanotechnology

• Draws on Multiple Fields
• Genetic and molecular engineering
• Composites and engineered materials
• Quantum scale optical and electrical structures
• Potential Applications
• Environmental cleaning agents
• Chemical detection agents
• Creation of biological (or artificial) organs
• Ultra-fast, ultra-dense, circuits

A factory large enough to make over 10 million
nanocomputers per day might fit on the edge one
of todays integrated circuits. - Drexler and
Peterson
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Grand Challenges in the National Nanotechnology
Initiative
Time Frame Strategic Challenges
Nano-Now Pigments in paints Cutting tools and war resistant coatings Phamaceuticals and drugs Nanoscale particles and thin films in electronic devices Jewelry, optimal and semiconductor wafer polishing
Nano-2007 Biosensors, transducers and detectors Functional designer fluids, propellants, nozzles and valves Flame retardant additives Drug delivery, biomagnetic separation, and wound healing
Nano-2012 Nano-optical/electronics power sources High-end flexible displays NEMS-based devices Faster switches and ulta-sensitive sensors
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Materials Science Photonics

• Smart materials and structures, which have the
  capability of sensing, remembering responding
  (e.g., to displacements caused by earthquakes and
  explosions smart textiles provide cooling and
  heating).
• As the physical sizes of optical sources
  decrease, while their power and reliability
  continue to increase, photonics based
  technologies will become more significant in
  engineered products and systems. Applications
  fiber optics, precision cutting, visioning and
  sensing photochromic windows.

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Information and Communication Technology

• Today a 1 gigabit hard drive ships in a package
  1x1x1/8 soon that will be a 10 gigabit drive
  and computers small enough to fit into trouser
  pockets will be able to contain information that
  would fill a modern library (Feldman, 2001)
• "Everything will, in some sense, be 'smart'
  every produce, every service and every bit of
  infrastructure will be attuned to the needs of
  humans it serves and will adapt its behavior to
  those needs.

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Example of Information Explosion in Healthcare
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Technological Challenges

• Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings
• Information and Communications Infrastructures
• Technology for an Aging Population
• The Environment

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The Environment

• Three quarters of the US population resides in
  areas with unhealthy air. American Lung
  Association
• In 2020, California will need 40 more electrical
  capacity, 40 more gasoline, and 20 more natural
  gas than in 2000.
• 50 of the worlds original forest cover has been
  depleted Worldwatch Institute and global per
  capita forest area is projected to fall to 1/3
  its 1990 value by 2020. Haque, 2000.
• 48 countries (2.8 billion people) face freshwater
  shortages in 2025 Henrichsen, 1997
• The wealthiest 16 of the world consumes 80 of
  the worlds natural resources. By the year 2020,
  there will be 8 billion people who will further
  depleting the environment and fuel political
  instability if the inequity of these resources
  continues. CIA 2001.

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Guiding Principles in Green Engineering (NSF,
2003)

• Engineer processes and products holistically, use
  systems analysis, and integrate environmental
  impact assessment tools.
• Conserve and improve natural ecosystems while
  protecting human health and well-being.
• Use life cycle thinking in all engineering
  activities.
• Ensure that all material and energy inputs and
  outputs are as inherently safe and benign as
  possible. 
• Minimize depletion of natural resources strive
  to prevent waste.
• Develop and apply engineering solutions, while
  being cognizant of local geography, aspirations
  and cultures.
• Create engineering solutions beyond current or
  dominant technologies improve, innovate and
  invent (technologies) to achieve sustainability.

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Societal, Global and Professional Context of
Engineering Practice

• The pace of technological innovation will
  continue to be rapid (if not escalating).
• The world in which technology will be deployed
  will be intensely globally interconnected
• The individuals who are involved with or affected
  by technology (e.g., designers, manufacturers,
  distributors, and users) will be increasingly
  diverse and multidisciplinary
• Social, cultural, and political forces will
  continue to shape and affect the success of
  technological innovation.
• The presence of technology in our every day lives
  will be seamless, transparent, and more
  significant than ever before.
• Consumers will demand more and more higher
  quality, mass customization, personalization,
  etc.

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Socio-technical Transformations

• The mounting sustainability imperative in the
  face of global population growth,
  industrialization, urbanization, and environment
  degradation
• Rising concern regarding the social implications
  of rapid technological advance
• Socio-political tensions around the world
• Increased focus on managed risk and assessment
  with a view to public security, privacy, and
  safety
• Growing diversity of the workforce

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The Changing Roles of Engineers

• Globalization of industry and engineering
  practice
• The shift of engineering employment from large
  companies to small and medium-sized companies,
  and the growing emphasis on entrepreneurialism
• The growing share of engineering employment in
  non-traditional, less-technical engineering work
  (e.g., management, finance, marketing, policy)
• The shift to a knowledge-based services economy
• Increasing opportunity for using technology in
  the education and work of the engineer

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Engineers in the Global Economy
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The Nations New Majority

• Women and under-represented groups make up a 1/2
  to 2/3 of the population of the United States and
  comprise the nations New Majority.

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The Nations New Majority
Science and Engineering Workforce
U.S. Workforce
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The World Population (CIA, 2001)

• A mix of 100 people in 2020 would look like the
  following
• 56 would be from Asia, including 19 Chinese and
  17 Indians
• 13 would be from the western hemisphere,
  including 4 from the United States
• 16 would be from Africa, including 13 from
  Sub-Saharan Africa
• 3 would be from the Middle East
• 7 would be from Eastern Europe and the former
  Soviet Union
• 5 would be from Western Europe

• In contrast to the aging of the US, Europe and
  Japan, the most politically instable parts of the
  world will experience a youth bulge.

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Results from a Survey of NAEFrontiers of
Engineering Alumni

• Frontiers of Engineering participants
• Carefully selected as future leaders in
  engineering
• Mostly young 30 to 45, (will be active in 2020)
• 61 respondents from academia, 44 from industry
• Respondents on average have worked in field
  (industry/academia) for over 10 years
• Involved in cutting edge engineering topics
• Intent was not to make recommendations on
  curricula but to assess how well their
  education had prepared them for the issues they
  will face in engineering practice out to 2020

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Q2. Current undergraduate engineering education
is sufficiently flexible to adequately meet
the needs of 21st century engineers.
Responses
Rating
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Q4. Which topics should receive increased
coverage in the undergraduate engineering
curriculum?
Responses
Ethics
Systems Engineering
Biology
Interdiscip. Context
Management
Tech. Policy
2nd Language
Comm/Writing
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Most Significant Issues Facing Engineers Today

• Industry Respondents on Most Significant Issues
• Instabilities in the job market
• Maintaining technical currency
• Difficulty managing interdisciplinary problems
• Industry Respondents on Most Significant
  Problems
• Problems associated with the environment
• Managing globalization
• Challenges brought on by advances in computing

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Problems Engineers Will be Solving in 2020

• Environmental and energy related problems
• Bioengineering problems (including medical)
• Ultra-nanoscale, miniaturization
• Problems related to population growth

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Additional Themes from Focus Groups

• Focus group held with volunteer participants from
  ASEE workshop on feminist pedagogy in engineering
  education
• Focus group held with volunteer participants from
  ASEE Minorities in Engineering Division (MIND)
• Surveys distributed to participants of NSF
  workshop on community college articulation

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Themes from Feminist Focus Group

• A change in the culture of engineering (practice)
  is desired
• Less unrewardingly competition, more
  collaboration (many contributors with an equal
  voice)
• Changes in the types of problems we decide to
  solve
• Diversity and quality are seen as complementary
• Greater value placed on family issues
• Engineers genuinely pursue inclusiveness
• Strategies to get there
• Radical change in the power structure (as it
  relates to who decides what problems are
  important)
• Decision-makers represent a more diverse group
• Coalitions between public/private sector

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Themes from Minority Focus Group

• Changes in culture and better equity is desired
• More emphasis on problems that address social
  and/or humanistic issues
• Diversity is valued
• More equitable access to engineering careers
• Strategies for getting there
• Include more diverse voices in decision-making
  process
• Positive images in the television media
• Strong and visible action by national political
  leadership
• New strategies for assessment more equitable
  K-12 preparation allow alternative paths into
  the profession

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020 Our Image and
the Profession

• By 2020, we aspire to a public that will
  understand and appreciate the profound impact of
  the engineering profession on social-cultural
  systems, the full spectrum of career
  opportunities accessible through an engineering
  education, and the value of an engineering
  education to engineers working successfully in
  non-engineering jobs.
• We aspire to a public that will recognize the
  union of professionalism, technical knowledge,
  social and historical awareness, and traditions
  that serve to make engineers competent to address
  the world's complex and changing challenges.
• "We aspire to engineers in 2020 who will remain
  well grounded in the basics of math and science,
  and . . . in the humanities, social sciences, and
  economics."

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020 Engineering
Without Boundaries

• We aspire to an engineering profession that will
  rapidly embrace the potentialities offered by
  creativity, invention, and cross-disciplinary
  fertilization to create and accommodate new
  fields of endeavor, including those that require
  openness to interdisciplinary efforts with
  non-engineering disciplines such as science,
  social science and business.
• By 2020, we aspire to engineers who will assume
  leadership positions from which they can serve as
  positive influences in making of public policy
  and in the administration of government and
  industry.
• We aspire to an engineering profession that will
  effectively recruit, nurture and welcome
  underrepresented groups to its ranks.

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020 Engineering a
Sustainable Society

• It is our aspiration that engineers will
  continue to be leaders in the movement towards
  use of wise, informed and economical, sustainable
  development. This should begin in our educational
  institutions and be founded in the basic tenets
  of the engineering profession and its actions.
• We aspire to a future where engineers are
  prepared to adapt to changes in global forces and
  trends and to ethically assist the world in
  creating a balance in standard of living for
  developing and developed countries alike.

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020 Education of
the Engineer 2020

• It is our aspiration that engineering educators
  and practicing engineers together undertake a
  proactive effort to prepare engineering education
  to address the technology and societal challenges
  and opportunities of the future. . . we should
  reconstitute engineering curricula and related
  educational programs to prepare todays engineers
  for the careers of the future, with due
  recognition of the rapid pace of change in the
  world, and its intrinsic lack of predictability.
• Our aspiration is to shape the engineering
  curriculum for 2020 so as to be responsive to the
  disparate leaning styles of different student
  populations and attractive for all those seeking
  a full and well-rounded education that prepares a
  young persons to be creative and productive life
  and positions of leadership.

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Successful Attributes for the Engineer of 2020

• Possess strong analytical skills
• Exhibit practical ingenuity posses creativity
• Good communication skills with multiple
  stakeholders
• Business and management skills Leadership
  abilities
• High ethical standards and a strong sense of
  professionalism
• Dynamic/agile/resilient/flexible
• Lifelong learners
• Ability to frame problems, putting them in a
  sociotechnical and operational context (Ruth
  David)

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Scenario-based Planning

• The idea behind scenario-based planning is to
  tell possible stories about the future to frame
  ones thinking.
• Good scenario planning expands our peripheral
  vision and forces us to examine our assumptions,
  and to practice what we would do if the
  unthinkable happened a condition that happens
  more often than one might imagine.
• More importantly the test of a good scenario is
  not whether it portrays the future accurately,
  but whether it enables a mechanism for learning
  and adapting.

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Scenarios

• The next scientific revolution
• The biotechnology revolution in a societal
  context
• The natural world interrupts the technology cycle
• Global conflict or globalization?

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Foundational Questions for 2020 Study

• What will the contextual conditions of
  engineering practice be in 2020 technological
  and societal?
• What are your aspirations for engineering and
  engineers in 2020?
• What will the critical attributes for engineers
  be in 2020?

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Review of Engineer 2020 Phase I Report