The Future of US Foreign Policy

1
The Future of US Foreign Policy

• And how Obama has dealt with it

2
Short Term

• Afghanistan
• In and eventually out

• Iraq Out

3
Middle East Turmoil

• Balancing US interests
• counterterrorism
• human rights and democracy
• OIL
• alliance with Israel

4
Policies

• Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak
• Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders,
  but encouraging them to start transition as
  protests continue
• Bombing Libya
• Diplomacy with Syria many implications
• Saudi Arabia silence

5
Longer Term

• US Goals
• Preservation of US Leadership
• Democratization
• Global Free market capitalism
• Stable change where change is necessary

6
Trends and Transformations?

1. Unipolarity Can it Last
2. New Cold War
3. Multipolarity
4. Leadership, not Dominance
5. Middle Power Challenges
6. Globalization Interdependence
7. Decline of Nation-State Power
8. Uncertainties

7
1. Unipolarity

• Can it Last?
• It never has before

8
US Wealth

• See World Bank http//siteresources.worldbank.org
  /DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf

9
Global Military Expenditures

• Country Military spending Budget Period
• World 1100 billion 2004 est.
• United States 623 billion FY08
• Rest-of-World 500 billion 2004 est.
• China 65.0 billion 2004
• Russia 50.0 billion
• France 45.0 billion 2005
• United Kingdom 42.8 billion 2005 est.
• Japan 41.75 billion 2007
• Germany 35.1 billion 2003
• Italy 28.2 billion 2003
• South Korea 21.1 billion 2003 est.
• India 19.0 billion 2005 est.
• Saudi Arabia 18.0 billion 2005 est.
• Australia 16.9 billion 2006
• North Korea 5.0 billion FY02
• Iran 4.3 billion 2003 est.
• From http//www.globalsecurity.org/military/world
  /spending.htm

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2. New Cold War

• One nation catches up to the US
• Rising Challenger
• Declining hegemon

11
US vs. China

• President Obama and President Hu

12
Great Power Challenges

• Rival Power
• Soft Authoritarian Ideology

13
3. Multipolarity

• Many nations catch up to the US
• The US falls back to the pack

14
A Multipolar System

• US
• Russia Japan
• EU
• China India

15
Or Another Bipolar System

• US India Russia China

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Sending a Message?

• Obama Administrations first state dinner
• Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh

17
Trips to Asia

• 2009

• 2010

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4. Leadership, not Dominance G-20
19
5. Middle Power Challenges

• Iranian power

20
6. Globalization Interdependence conflict
wont become war
21
Welcome to China
22
Welcome to the US
23
Welcome to New York
24
7. Decline of Nation-State Power

• The Nation-State System evolves
• Governments weaken
• Financial Flows that governments cant control
• Organizations that governments cant control or
  defend themselves against

25

• Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital
  Flows
• (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken
  Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region,
  2002, http//www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTM
  L/docshell.asp?URLdefault.asp

26
US GDP Growth
27
21st Century Challenges

• Regional Instability al-Shabab in Somalia

• Global Terrorism 9/11

28
AQAM Attacks 1995-2011
29
Transnational Organized CrimeMexico vs. Drug
Cartels sourcehttp//www.utexas.edu/international
/ioc/safety_updates.html
30
8. Uncertainties

• Climate Change
• Energy
• Food
• Population
• Over-urbanization
• Migration
• And