What is Environmental Health?

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• ???????????,????100?,????50?,???????
• ???????667?,???????250??

• ???????? 100/66710015
• ???????? 50/25010020

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?(rate)
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?
K?????,?100?1000?????????????????????????12????

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???(constituent ratio)
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??????????100? ??????
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?10-1 2001???????????HbsAg??,????10-1,???????HbsAg
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??????????????????,????????????,??????????
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?10-2 ??2003-2005???????????10-2,????????????????
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• ???????????,?????????
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,?????????????????
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???????,????????????? ?,??????????,?????????????
????????,??????????????????????????? ???,?????????
???????,????,????? ???????????????,???????????????
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??????????????????Pi,??????????????????
?? ??i ??????, ???????, ??i ?????,
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??????????????????????,???????????????
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???????????????????????,????????(standard
mortality ratio),???SMR??SMRgt1,??????????????????
,?SMRlt1,?????????????????
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?10-4 ?????????????????????10-6,???????????432???
??,??????210?????,???????????????????
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(1)?????????(???????)???,?????????,????? (2)??????
???????????,?????????? (3)????????????????,???????
?????? (4)????????,??????????????????
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??? ???????????

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• ????u??

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??????

• ?????????????????????,??????????????,???????????(b
  inomial distribution),????????????????????????????
  ????????p??????n,????X,??????X???????????????

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???p 0.5,n 10?p 0.3,n 5?p 0.3,n 10?p
0.3,n 15?????(10-6)??????????????????
?10-1 ???????
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• 1.??????
• 2.?p 1-p?,?????
• 3.?n???,?????????
• ????,?np?n(1-p)5?, ??????????

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?10-6 ??????????????????,????????????????1773?,??
???????682?,????38.47,????????
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?????
?????n???,???p?1-p?????(?np?n(1-p)???5),??????????
???
u?????????????,???????95?????,???1.9699
?????,???2.58?
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?10-6???????????????95?99??????
95????? 38.47?1.96?1.1636.2040.74 9
9????? 38.47?2.58?1.1635.4841.46
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• ?n??,?n?50,???p???0?1?,??????????????????
• ????????,????????????????????,???????n????x???????
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u ??
?????n???,???p?1-p?????(?np?n(1-p)???5),??
?????????????????????????????????u??(u test) ?
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?10-7 ?????,?????????????30,?????????385??????,?
????????100?,???????26,??????????????????????????
??????
??,????26,np?n(1-p)???5,???u???
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• ??????
• H0 ??0,H1 ???0,?0.05

2. ??u?
3. ??P?,????
??u1.713lt1.96,Pgt0.05,??0.05??????H0,?????????,??
????????????????????????????
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?10-8 ??????????????????,??????????22792?,???????
8207?,?????????701?,??????8.54,?????14585?,??????
???2167?,??????14.86,?????????????????????????

• ??????
• H0 ?1?2,H1 ?1??2,?0.05

2. ??u?
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3. ??P?,????
??P?????? ?? 13.739gt2.58,Plt0.01,??0.05????
?H0,??H1,?????????
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??? ?2??

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?2??(Chi-square test)

• ????????????,??????K.Pearson?1900????????????????
  ???????????????????

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?10-9 ???????????????????????,????71?,??52?,
????42?,??39?,????10-7????????????????
?10-7 ??????????????????
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A???? T????
???????,x2??????????H0??????????????????
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?2??????

• ?????????????
• ??????,??2?????????????????????????10-13
  ???2??,??2??20.05(?),????0.05???????H0??2?lt?20.
  05(?),??????H0?

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? ? - ? ?
A a b ab
B c d cd
? ? ac bd n(abcd)
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?10-9 ??????????????????
(1) ??????,??????
H0 ???????,??1?2 H1 ???????,??1 ? ?2 ?0.05
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(2)???????????
ngt40,Tmingt5
(3)??P?,????
?20.025(1)5.02,?20.01(1)6.63???5.02lt?26.48
lt6.63,??,0.025?P ?0.01,??0.05??,??H0,??H1,???????
??????,??????????
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??,
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??????2????? ??????????,?????????????,??
??? ??????????????2?????????,??????Yates
F????????????????????0.5?????
????
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?10-10 ???????A?B???????????????,??????10-8,?????
?????????????
?10-8 A?B????????????????
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H0 ?1?2 H1 ?1??2 ?0.05
T2222?8/642.75 lt5 ??1,??2??,?20.05(1)3.8
4,?24.79?3.84,Plt0.05, ??0.05??,??H0,??H1,???????
????????,A??????B??
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??????,???????,????

• (1)T5,?N40?,?????,????
• (2)1Tlt5, ?N40?,????????
• (3)Tlt1?Nlt40,???????,???????????

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????????????2??
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????????McNemar??
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?10-11 ?????????100?????????,????????10-9,????????
?????????
?10-9 ?????????????????
?? ?? ?? ??
?? - ??
50 32 82
- 15 3 18
?? 65 35 100
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H0 ?????????,?B C H1 ?????????,?B ? C ?0.05
(1)
(2)
???,Plt0.025,??0.05??,??H0,??H1,????????,?????????
?????,?????
(3)
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• ???????????????(b?c),????????n?????(a?d),??,?n????
  ???????(?a?d????),b?c????????,????????????,???????
  ??

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? (R-1)(C-1)
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?10-12 ????????????3?????????????,????????????????
?????????10-10,?????????????????
?10-10 ????????????????????
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H0 ??????????? H1 ???????????????? ?0.05
(1)
(2)
(3)
?(3-1)(2-1)2,??2??,?20.01(2)9.21,
?2gt?20.01(2), Plt0.01, ??0.05?????,??H0,??H1,?????
?????????????????????
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?10-13 ???????????????ABO????,????????10-11,??????
???ABO?????????
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H0 ????????ABO?????? H1 ????????ABO??????????? ?
0.05
(1)
(2)
? (2-1)(4-1)3
???,?20.05(3)7.81, ?2lt?20.05(3),Pgt0.05,
??0.05?????,???????,?????????????ABO???????
(3)
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??????????,5???3???,??????3/510060.0,???4???,
??????80???,?????????? ???????????,??????????????
?,?????????,??????????????????,???????????????????
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?????????????????????,??????4470?,?????,??????
?????2429??,?????,????92.2,????????????,??????
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?10-1 2001????????HBsAg???????
? ? ???? ???? ???() ?????()
??? 660 6 0.91 5.41
??? 1115 49 4.39 44.14
??? 1563 56 3.58 50.45
? ? 3338 111 3.33 100.00
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1. ??????,????????????
2. ?????????????????
3. ????????,???????????????????????

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