Fuel Cells An Emerging High-Technology Industry

1
Fuel Cells An Emerging High-Technology Industry

• Rodger McKain, PhD
• 4/22/2006

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Energy Sets the Scene
3
Setting the Scene for Fuel Cells Petroleum
supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025
(million barrels per day)
13 million Bbls/d
US EIA 2005
4
Setting the Scene for Fuel Cells Petroleum
supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025
(million barrels per day)
60
71
US EIA 2005
5
Primary energy use by fuel, 2003-2025
(quadrillion Btu)
1 quad 170 million bbls 1 trillion SCF (nat
gas) 45 million tons (coal)
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Fuel Cells An Old Technology Provides New
Solutions
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First Communication of Fuel Cell Related Phenomena

• I cannot but regard the experiment as an
  important one
• William Grove to Michael Faraday
• October 22, 1842

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SOFC Fuel Cell Operation
2 H O2- H2O 2 e-

External electrical conducting circuit
2e-
H2
H2O 2 e-
O2-
O2
2O2-
½ O 2 2 e-
H2 2 H 2e-
Porous perovskite cathode
Porous nickel-cermet anode
Solid Oxide Electrolyte ionic conducting
membrane
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Fuel Cell Operation
H2 ½ O2 H2O
H2O
O 2e_ O
H2 O _ 2e_ H2O
(Ionic transport)
Source U.S. Fuel Cell Council
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Attributes of Fuel Cells
AFC PACF PEM
MCFC SOFC Electrolyte KOH
Phosphoric Sulfonic Molten Y2O3-ZrO2
Acid Acid Carbonate Ceramic
Polymer Salt Temperature 100
0C 2000C 80 0C
6500C 800-10000C Fuel H2 H2
H2 H2/CO H2/CO Efficiency (H2
fuel) 60 55 60 55
55 (NG fuel) --
40 35 50
50 Pollution Low Low
Low Low Low Hydrocarbon No
Difficult Difficult
Yes Yes Fuel Use Start-Up Fast
Moderate Fast Slow
Slow
Zirconia
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Fuel Cell Power System
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(No Transcript)
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Fuel Cell Impact (from Hydrogen Economy
Statements)

• Clean environment
• Reduced Global Warming
• Energy independence
• National Infrastructure Security
• Low cost, reliable electrical power

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Regulated Emissions ComparisonCoal Fired
Utility vs. PA Fuel Cell
Contaminant Average U.S. Utility Emissions (lbs per megawatt-hour) ONSI PC25 200 kW NG Fuel Cell (lbs per megawatt-hour)
Nitrogen Oxides 7.65 0.016
Carbon monoxide 0.34 0.023
Reactive organic gases 0.34 0.0004
Sulfur oxides 16.1 0
Particulates (PM10) 0.46 0
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Fuel Cell System Trends Compared with other
Distributed Generation Technologies
70
Combined Cycle
60
Carbonate Fuel Cell
Solid Oxide Fuel Cells
50
PAFC
Aero Gas Turbines
40
Electrical Generation Efficiency LHV
PEM Fuel Cell
30
Industrial Gas Turbine
20
IC Engines
Stirling Engine
10
Microturbines
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
500,000
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Wholesale
Size in kW
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Hydrogen Production

• Principle Sources of Hydrogen
• Hydrocarbons (natural gas and crude oil)
• Water
• Conversion Technology
• Steam Methane Reforming (commercial)
• Water Electrolysis (commercial)
• Methane Pyrolysis (small scale)
• Water-Sulfur-Iodide Process (small scale)

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Hydrogen Production Dilemma

• 13 million barrels crude oil per day used in
  transportation equivalent to 1.46 billion
  pounds per day hydrogen
• This would require doubling the total US power
  production (850 GWe to 1780 GWe) if hydrogen were
  produced by conventional electrolysis. (assume 1
  MW per 1000 lbs and efficiency improvements)
• OR
• This would require 23 trillion cubic feet of
  natural gas per year - approximately 110 of the
  2002 total US consumption, nearly doubling the
  total natural gas requirement.

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Hydrogen Production Solutions

• Near Term (small volumes)
• Conventional technology distributed to point of
  use
• Fueling stations (hydrocarbon reforming or water
  electrolysis)
• Long Term (large volumes)
• High Temperature gas Cooled Nuclear Reactor
  boost electrolysis efficiency from 20 to 40.
  (Reduce power requirement by half)
• FutureGen Hydrogen and power from coal
• Solar Cell Direct Electrolysis

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Are Fuel Cell Powered Cars Really More Efficient?
40
100 Energy Units
IC Engine 40
Power Train 37.5
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Conventional Car
60
20 Idling
5 Friction
- 60 Units H2 production
20
40 Energy Units
Fuel Cell 50
Direct Drive 75
15
Fuel Cell Car
20
0 Idling
5 Friction
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Technology Commercialization Conundrum

• Public Expectations are high
• But, Success Rates are less than 30
• And, Success generally takes longer and costs
  more
• Fuel Cell system OEMs will determine the
  future
• Much more investment is required
• Development phase is more costly than
  anticipated
• Strategic development is likely to dominate
• But, focus is on suppliers and entrepreneurs
• Basis for a hard, clear-eyed review of the fuel
  cell opportunity
• Role of OEMs
• Public expectations
• Government and NPO involvement

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When Will Fuel Cells Be Available?(An Ohio View)
Source Projections represent Taratec
Corporations estimate of market activitybased
on input from industry analysts and information
provided in executive interviews.
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Todays Technology Cost Comparison

• Watts Sector
  Application /kW
• 0.1 1.0 Biomedical
  Autonomous power for 105
• 
  sensors and implants
• 1 100 Electronics
  Battery replacement 104
• 100 - 10,000 Communications Battery
  replacement 103 104
• 
  Cell tower stationary power
• 5,000 - Transportation
  Propulsion 101
  102
• 100,000
  Auxiliary Power Units
• gt 10,000 Stationary power Emergency
  backup 102 103
• 
  grid supplement

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Market Projections
Portable Power leads the way
Military/Aerospace
Vehicle
Stationary
Auxiliary
Portable
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Public Expectations

• Set by soft industry successes
• Dominated by services sector and incremental
  changes to existing businesses
• Low development costs
• Investment usually for revenue growth
• Less than 5 years for acceptable ROI
• Satisfying unmet market needs (existing markets)
• Returns through MAs or IPOs
• Not universally applicable

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Market Penetration (Per Cent Households)
Time to Max. TV 30 yrs Color TV 10
yrs Electricity 75 yrs Automobile 80
yrs Telephone 90 yrs Cell phone 20 yrs PC
20 yrs Internet 15 yrs
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Fuel Cell vs. Service Sector Commercialization

• Some Fuel Cells are here today
• Battery replacement
• Military
• Space Shuttle
• Back-up power
• But, to impact domestic energy consumption
• FCs require
• 10-100X development funding 100-200 million per
  product (from now)
• 10X development time (20 yrs)
• But, FCs offer similar market opportunities (20
  billion) to service sector businesses

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Fuel Cell Commercialization
Cost Comparison
Fuel Cells
Log
Service Sector
Log yrs
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Service Sector vs. Fuel Cell Commercialization
2000
Service
Fuel Cells
DCF ( million )
0
Yrs from 2006
20
10
-200

• Differentiators
• Infrastructure
• Capital intensity
• Market Creation
• Diversity
• Competitive Alternatives

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Fuel Cell Cost Pyramid (DOE)
Cost Contribution /kW
Industrial Segments
Now
Future
Balance of Plant Packaging, Air/Fuel Handling
46
6
44
12
Controls/Power Electronics Inverter, DC Boost,
Sensors, Actuators
128
19
110
28
27
Hot Box Reformer, Recuperator Manifold,
Filter, enclosure/insulation
184
109
28
Stack
325
48
118
30
683
382
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Fuel Cell Business Creation Gap

• This time around----20-year development cycle
  (profitable industry following silicon chip
  history)
• Suppliers betting on system integrators
• System integrators require large infusions of
  capital to advance to product stagethe
  bottleneck in the cycle...returns are still
  beyond the horizon.
• Gap Financing development for an uncertain
  market.

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Fuel Cells? 2005-2060
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FCs Early Adopter Chasm (Created by Government
Development Programs)

• Early demand for components
• OEMs commercial development
• lags demonstration gov programs
• Transition to commercial prototypes
• Renewed demand as OEMs
• book product sales

Revenue Chasm
DCF
Years
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How does a fuel cell business survive and thrive?

• Military bootstrap
• Federal agency funding
• Private investors
• Strategic partners/customers
• Leveraging Resources

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Building an Industry

• General Requirements
• Source(s) of ideas
• Availability of funds
• Accessible Workforce
• Education and Training Resources
• Informed and supportive infrastructure
• Competitive business environment
• Regulations, Taxation, Financing etc.

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Critical Role for Building a Fuel Cell Industry
in Ohio

• Educate Policymakers
• Create realistic expectations
• Facilitate information exchange
• Inform the public
• Engage all interests
• Create opportunities
• Focus on government-University-Industry
  Relationships
• Maintain an independent perspective
• Enable new and existing companies to access
  resources to pursue fuel cell business plans more
  aggressively in Ohio than anywhere else

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Fuel Cells for 2010Todays Glimpse into the
Future
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Motive Power
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Motive Power
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Auxiliary Power
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Fueling Stations
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Small-Scale Power Systems
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Concept Truck Auxiliary Power Units Save 700
Million Gallons Diesel Fuel per Year

• Long-haul trucks idle about 2,000 hours per year
• Idling trucks consume 860 Millions gallons of
  fuel per year!
• Fuel cells can reduce truck idling fuel
  consumption from 1 gal/hr to 0.2 gal/hr or by 688
  million gallons.

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Concepts Aircraft Power Systems

• Benefits to commercial aircraft cabin power
• 50 fuel savings over conventional turbine APU
• Reduced emissions (e.g., gt20 NOx reduction)
• Reduced noise (gt10db reduction at gate)

Commercial Aircraft

• Benefits to UAVs
• Emergency power improved vehicle recovery
• Payload power significant increase in payload

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

• Benefits to HALE UAVs
• Longer mission endurance
• Higher payloads

NASA LEAP Project (Low Emissions Alternative
Power)
High-Altitude, Long Endurance UAV
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Todays Designs Tomorrows Products
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Summary
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The Fuel Cell Opportunity

• High efficiency Energy
  Independence
• Low regulated emissions
• Quiet
• Fuel flexibility
• High quality power
• High reliability Energy
  Security
• Widespread applications (transportation, power,
  medical, communications, military, aerospace,
  electronics)
• IF lt400/kW
  stationary power
• lt35/kW
  automotive
• New industry (250 billion per year)

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Challenges for Widespread Use of Fuel Cells

• Cost (capital and operating) further
  breakthroughs?
• Operating Life 4000 40,000 hours (automotive
  vs. stationary power)
• Reliability
• Investment Catch 22?
• Many demonstrations
• Hydrogen Infrastructure (fuel transportation and
  storage)
• Codes and Standards

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Fuel Cell Types
Source U.S. Fuel Cell Council
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The Ohio Fuel Cell Enterprise

• Ohio Fuel Cell Coalition Ken Alfred
• Wright Fuel Cell Group John McGrath
• NorTech Dorothy Baunach
• CWRU Bob Savinell, Tom Zawodzinski
• OSU Giorgio Rizzoni
• CSU Orhan Talu
• U of Toledo Martin Abraham
• U of Akron Steven Chuang
• Ohio University Dave Bayless
• NASA Glen Serene Farmer
• Wright Patterson AFRL Tom Reitz
• Battelle Dave Salay
• EMTEC Frank Svet, Mike Martin
• EWI Frank Jacob
• Stark State College of Technology Dorey Diab
• Hocking College

• Catacel Bill Whittenberger
• MetaMateria Partners Dick Schorr
• NexTech Materials Bill Dawson
• SOFCo-EFS Rodger McKain
• TMI Benson Lee
• Parker-Hannifin
• AEP
• First Energy
• Dana Corporation
• Rockwell International
• Keithley Instruments
• Solarflo
• Vanner
• Governor Bob Taft
• Ohio Department of Development Pat Valente,
  Mike McKay
• Stark County Development Board Steve Paquette
• Congressman Regula

Thank You!