Managerial economics

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Managerial economics

• Bab 4
• Peramalan Permintaan

• PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The
  University of Queensland, Australia.
• Post Graduate Diploma in Regional Dev.,1994,
  Dept. of Economics, The Univ. of Queensland,
  Australia.
• MS in Rural Regional Development Planning,
  1986, Graduate School, Bogor Agricultural
  University, Bogor

Lecturer Muchdie, PhD in Economics
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Pokok Bahasan

• Peramalan Kualitatif Survei, Jajak Pendapat
• Peramalan Kuantitatif
• Analisis Deret Waktu
• Teknik Penghalusan
• Metode Barometrik
• Model Ekonometrik
• Peramalan Input-Output
• Ringkasan, Pertanyaan Diskusi, Soal-Soal dan
  Alamat Situs Internet
• Studi Kasus Gabungan 2 Mengestimasi dan
  Meramalkan Permintaan Listrik di Amerika Serikat

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PERAMALAN KUAlITATIF

• Survey Techniques
• Planned Plant and Equipment Spending
• Expected Sales and Inventory Changes
• Consumers Expenditure Plans
• Opinion Polls
• Business Executives
• Sales Force
• Consumer Intentions

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AnalISIS DERET WAKTU

• Secular Trend
• Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data
• Cyclical Fluctuations
• Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction
• Seasonal Variation
• Regularly Occurring Fluctuations
• Irregular or Random Influences

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Trend Projection

• Linear TrendSt S0 b tb Growth per time
  period
• Constant Growth RateSt S0 (1 g)t g Growth
  rate
• Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt lnS0 t ln(1
  g)

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VariaSI MUSIMAN
Ratio to Trend Method
AdjustedForecast
TrendForecast
SeasonalAdjustment

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VariaSI MUSIMAN
Ratio to Trend MethodExample Calculation for
Quarter 1
Trend Forecast for 1996.1 11.90 (0.394)(17)
18.60 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1
(18.60)(0.8869) 16.50
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Moving Average ForecastsRATA-RATA BERGERAK
Forecast is the average of data from w periods
prior to the forecast data point.
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PEMULUSAN EXPONENSIALForecasts
Forecast is the weighted average of of the
forecast and the actual value from the prior
period.
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Root Mean Square Error
Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method
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Barometric Methods

• National Bureau of Economic Research
• Department of Commerce
• Leading Indicators
• Lagging Indicators
• Coincident Indicators
• Composite Index
• Diffusion Index

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Econometric Models
Single Equation Model of the Demand For Cereal
(Good X)
QX a0 a1PX a2Y a3N a4PS a5PC a6A e
QX Quantity of X PX Price of Good X Y
Consumer Income N Size of Population
PS Price of Muffins PC Price of Milk A
Advertising e Random Error
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Econometric Models
Multiple Equation Model of GNP
Reduced Form Equation
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Input-Output Forecasting
Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table
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Input-Output Forecasting
Direct Requirements Matrix
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Input-Output Forecasting
Total Requirements Matrix
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Input-Output Forecasting
Total Requirements Matrix
Final Demand Vector
Total Demand Vector
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Input-Output Forecasting
Revised Input-Output Flow Table